Research

Cross-cutting analysis

The stock pages underwrite one name at a time. These pieces read across the universe — cohorts, category-wide narratives, and the places where the market's story and the framework's scores disagree. Every score cited is computed live from the same data, so nothing here goes stale quietly.

59 pieces published·119 names covered·Scores recomputed live

LatestPlatformsNetwork EffectsRegulationEarnings

Roblox Stock After Q3 2026 Earnings: Chat Is Recovering From the Age Check

In April Roblox said its new age check had cut chat and slowed sign-ups; by Q3 2026 daily users who chat grew twice as fast as the platform from Q2, so I think the gate was a one-time toll on the network and the 9% fall in daily users is the 2025 boom being lapped.

RBLXMETASNAPGOOGLRDDT+1 more

November 1, 2026·9 min·5 namesRead the piece

HealthcareGLP-1Earnings

Eli Lilly Q3 2026: The GLP-1 Price Cut Its Margin Absorbed

Lilly's realized GLP-1 prices fell 15% in Q3 2026, and the worry is that the price war has started eating its moat. If unit costs had stayed flat, that cut would have pulled its gross margin down to about 81%. It printed 84.4%. I read that gap as manufacturing scale being spent, and it's the number to watch.

LLYNVOHIMSREGNVRTX+1 more

October 31, 2026·9 min·5 namesRead

AI InfrastructureCloudEarningsCatalyst

Microsoft Stock After Q1 FY2027 Earnings: Azure Sped Up While the Backlog Stood Still

Azure grew 48% in Microsoft's September quarter while its $677 billion contract backlog didn't grow from June and bookings fell 12%. Satya Nadella says a few big customers renting capacity is not a business, and I think the customers outside the AI labs are what's carrying Azure.

MSFTORCLCRWVAMZNGOOGL+1 more

October 30, 2026·9 min·5 namesRead

PlatformsAdvertisingEarningsCatalyst

Reddit Stock After Q3 2026 Earnings: The Users Google Was Lending

Reddit fell about 25% after warning that lost Google search traffic could cut its daily users by a low-double-digit percentage in Q4, but the users leaving are logged-out visitors, and I think the logged-in core that carries most of the ad money is the moat.

RDDTGOOGLMETASNAP

October 30, 2026·8 min·4 namesRead

Big TechAI MonetizationAdvertisingCatalyst

Alphabet Stock After Q3 2026 Earnings: Google's Search Slowdown Is Mostly the Calendar

Google Search revenue grew 12% in Q3 2026, down from 17%, and Alphabet fell about 10% after hours. Measured against two years ago, Search grew nearly as fast as it did a year earlier. Last year's comparison and a currency swing explain most of the drop, which leaves about a point for AI Mode and two smaller effects.

GOOGLMSFTMETAAMZN

October 29, 2026·12 min·4 namesRead

Financial InfrastructureBusiness ModelsCatalyst

Mastercard Stock After Q3 2026: Rebates Outgrew Services

Mastercard's services grew 19% in Q3 2026 and the stock rose, but 63 cents of every new dollar its network charged went back to banks as rebates, and the banks' share of its gross network fees has risen every third quarter since 2023.

MAVJPMCOIN

October 29, 2026·9 min·4 namesRead

Financial InfrastructureBusiness ModelsCatalyst

ICE Stock After Q3 2026: Energy Futures Outgrew Mortgage

Intercontinental Exchange had its best third quarter ever on energy futures, the business investors file under cyclical, while Mortgage Technology, bought as the steady recurring engine, grew 4% and earned almost nothing after amortization. I think the market has the two labels the wrong way round.

ICESPGIMSCIMCO

October 29, 2026·9 min·4 namesRead

AI InfrastructureIndustrialsCatalyst

Vertiv Stock After Q3 2026 Earnings: Customers Now Prepay 94% of What They Owe

Vertiv's stock fell 45% from May to October on fears the AI build is peaking, but by September 30 the cash its customers had paid ahead of delivery reached $4.1 billion, nearly as much as they owed on invoices, which I read as a supplier setting its own terms.

VRTGEVBEETNTT+1 more

October 28, 2026·10 min·5 namesRead

Financial InfrastructureBusiness ModelsCryptoRegulationCatalyst

Visa Stock After Q4 FY2026: Banks Take a Bigger Cut

Visa's client incentives grew 21% in fiscal Q4 against 13% net revenue growth, with a quarter of its volume renewing in 2027, so the pressure on its pricing is coming from the banks that issue its cards while stablecoins so far show up as a small new line of volume on its own network.

VMAJPMCOIN

October 28, 2026·10 min·4 namesRead

Financial InfrastructureEarningsMoat Durability

S&P Global Q3 2026: Capital IQ Goes Under Review in the Quarter Ratings Grew 2%

In July I said S&P Global's growth sits in Ratings and Indices, the half that owns a benchmark. Now S&P may separate Capital IQ, which I think is right for the moat. But Ratings grew 2% this quarter, and a company tilted further toward that half will swing more than the stock's nearly 6% jump assumes.

SPGIMCOMSCI

October 27, 2026·7 min·3 namesRead

AI DisruptionSemiconductorsDesign SoftwareEarnings

Cadence Q3: The AI Model Isn't Where Chip-Design Money Goes

Synopsys teamed up with OpenAI for its chip-design agents and Cadence built its own models. I think the model is the cheap layer, because every agent still has to run the foundry-certified tools these two sell, and Cadence's Q3 is the baseline that claim gets tested against.

CDNSSNPSADSKPTC

October 27, 2026·9 min·4 namesRead

BiotechHealthcareOncologyCatalyst

Moderna Stock After ESMO 2026: Good Melanoma Data, and a Price That Still Needs a Second Cancer

Moderna fell 17.6% on October 22 when its Phase 3 melanoma data leaked with a 0.58 hazard ratio against KEYTRUDA. I think the result was good and the drop fairly took out melanoma hype, but the price still pays for a second cancer that ESMO never tested.

MRNAREGNVRTX

October 26, 2026·8 min·3 namesRead

Financial InfrastructureRegulationBusiness ModelsCatalyst

MSCI Q3 and the ESG Licence Nobody Has to Buy

Europe's ESG-rating rule took effect in July, and MSCI's ESG and climate business kept losing run rate in Q3 while its index business lifted retention to 97.1%. A rule locks customers in when it binds the buyer, and this one binds only the seller.

MSCISPGIMCOICEFICO+1 more

October 25, 2026·9 min·5 namesRead

AI InfrastructureIndustrialsCatalyst

Bloom Energy Stock After Q3 2026 Earnings: Revenue Up 138%, Operating Cash Flow Negative

Bloom Energy grew Q3 2026 revenue 138% and raised guidance a third time, then fell 11% on −$27 million of operating cash flow, which I read as a sign that Bloom still gets paid after it delivers while GE Vernova's turbine customers pay down payments first.

BEGEV

October 24, 2026·11 min·2 namesRead

Financial InfrastructureAI CapexBusiness ModelsCatalyst

Moody's Q3 and the Borrower That Actually Pays the Fee

Moody's ratings revenue fell in Q3 while investment-grade issuance set a third-quarter record on AI and hyperscaler debt. Across 2026 the ratings line has moved with high-yield and leveraged-loan borrowers, not with AI, and those are the borrowers private credit and cheaper private ratings compete for.

MCOSPGIKKRBX

October 24, 2026·15 min·4 namesRead

AdvertisingAd TechPlatformsMedia

Spotify Q3 2026 Earnings: More Ads Sold, at Softer Prices

Spotify's ad revenue grew 9% in constant currency in Q3, three times the first-half pace. The growth came from selling more impressions through its auction, where outside buyers such as Amazon's DSP can now bid, while Spotify said pricing was soft for at least the sixth straight quarter.

SPOTMETAAMZNGOOGLTTDNFLX+2 more

October 24, 2026·12 min·6 namesRead

HealthcareBusiness Models

Elevance Q3 2026 Earnings: Most of the Guidance Raise Won't Recur

Elevance beat by more than $2 a share and raised its 2026 guide by $2, and analysts raised their targets. The recurring earnings baseline it promises 2027 growth from rose only $0.75, and at least 12% growth from there would take EPS back to about where it was in 2025.

ELVUNHCVSHUM

October 24, 2026·10 min·4 namesRead

AutosAICatalyst

Tesla Stock After Q3 2026 Earnings: Gross Margin Came Within Half a Point of My Test

Tesla's Q3 2026 gross margin was 19.6%, 0.4 points short of the 20% my October piece said would show pricing power in the car business. Operating income still fell 56% from a year earlier. The line that grew was FSD, at 1.74 million subscriptions, up 67%.

TSLAGOOGLUBER

October 23, 2026·7 min·3 namesRead

Hard AssetsTelecomCatalyst

American Tower Stock After the SpaceX Cell Site Report: Paying for a Lease Nobody Has Signed

American Tower is up about 13% since October 8 on two SpaceX headlines, the latest a report that SpaceX wants at least 80,000 US cell sites. Nothing is signed. The last company that tried to be the fourth US carrier signed a lease to 2036 and stopped paying once it sold its spectrum to AT&T and SpaceX.

AMTSPCX

October 23, 2026·6 min·2 namesRead

AdvertisingAI CapexBig TechCatalyst

Meta Stock After Q3 2026 Earnings: Price Per Ad Now Grows Faster Than Impressions

In Q3 2026 Meta's average price per ad grew 14% while impressions grew 10%, the first time since early 2025 that price was the bigger half of ad growth. That's what my July piece said the AI build had to produce. It's also what plain scarcity would produce, and Q3 can't tell the two apart.

METAAPPTTD

October 21, 2026·7 min·3 namesRead

MediaPlatformsCatalystBusiness Models

Netflix Q3 2026 Earnings: The Ad Forecast Cut Is About Who Owns the Pipe

Netflix cut its 2026 ad forecast to $2.7 billion and blamed slow product rollout and partner integrations, with demand still strong. I think the reason matters more than the $300 million, because this year's ad growth went to the sellers that own the purchase and intent data, and Netflix sells through some of them.

NFLXAMZNGOOGLTTDSPOT+1 more

October 21, 2026·12 min·5 namesRead

SemiconductorsMemoryAI InfrastructureCatalyst

SK Hynix Stock Before Q3 2026 Earnings: CXMT, Nvidia's NVHBM and the Part of HBM a Supplier Still Owns

SK hynix sold off in October on a Chinese DRAM claim, but I think the bigger change is Nvidia designing the base die of its custom NVHBM for all three suppliers, which takes away the custom-memory upside more than the share lead.

000660.KS005930.KSMUTSMNVDAMRVL+2 more

October 20, 2026·14 min·6 namesRead

AI InfrastructureSpaceCatalystBusiness Models

SpaceX Q3 2026 Earnings: The AI Segment Turned a Profit Before Starship Did

SpaceX's AI segment made its first operating profit in Q3 2026 while launches fell, which undercuts my October argument that it needed Starship cadence. I think the profit comes from renting scarce GPUs at shortage prices on chips anyone can buy, and that margin fades when the shortage does.

SPCXCRWVNBISGOOGL

October 20, 2026·14 min·4 namesRead

HealthcareRoboticsCatalystBusiness Models

Intuitive Surgical Stock Before Q3 2026 Earnings: Boston Scientific Shows How Rivals Take Share, and Where to Look

Intuitive reports on October 20 with Medtronic's Hugo and J&J's Ottava both cleared in the US, and I think Boston Scientific's lost PFA share shows the rivals' clearance date matters less than how often a customer can try them.

ISRGBSXLLYNVO

October 19, 2026·17 min·4 namesRead

BiotechHealthcareOncologyCatalyst

Moderna Stock Before ESMO 2026: The Data Can Prove a Melanoma Drug, the Price Assumes a Platform

Moderna had more than tripled from its pre-readout close by October 16, and its October 24 ESMO data can show how good a melanoma drug intismeran is, but I think the price is paying for an mRNA cancer platform that only a randomized win in a second tumor type can prove.

MRNAREGNVRTXLLYNVO+1 more

October 18, 2026·15 min·5 namesRead

AI InfrastructureHyperscalersCapital AllocationBig Tech

CoreWeave, Oracle and the AI Debt Selloff: Everyone Is Borrowing, the Moat Sets the Rate

CoreWeave's bond slide split AI stocks into self-funders and borrowers on October 16, but Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are borrowing too. What moved each company's price of money this year was the business that services the debt, and a rented GPU has very little of one.

CRWVNBISORCLMSFTGOOGLAMZNMETA+3 more

October 17, 2026·15 min·7 namesRead

CryptoIndex ProvidersFinancialsBitcoin

Strategy (MSTR) and MSCI's Index Exclusion Rule: The Exit Started a Year Ago

MSCI's new test for non-operating companies will likely drop Strategy from its indexes on November 30, but S&P and MSCI started closing the index door a year ago and the stock has traded below its bitcoin since June. The ruling mostly shows who owns the label, and it's MSCI.

MSTRCOINHOODMSCISPGI+1 more

October 16, 2026·13 min·5 namesRead

Enterprise SoftwareAIBusiness Models

Adobe, Figma and Microsoft vs. ArtCraft's AI-Built Clones: Which Software Moats a Rebuild Can Copy

ArtCraft used AI agents to put alpha clones of Photoshop, Acrobat, Word, Excel, Figma and AutoCAD on GitHub in about three weeks. They copy what you can see from outside an app. That reaches Adobe's single-user creative seat, but not Figma's shared file or Microsoft's tenant, and Figma is priced as if it did.

ADBEFIGMSFTADSKPTC+1 more

October 15, 2026·16 min·5 namesRead

SemiconductorsAI InfrastructureMemoryChina

ASML, TSMC and the China Chip Selloff of October 2026: Which Moats CXMT Can Reach

A Chinese DRAM claim from CXMT sank memory stocks and pulled ASML down with them, but China's progress competes with Samsung, SK hynix and Micron on scale while it still buys lithography from ASML and chips from TSMC.

MU000660.KS005930.KSASMLTSM+1 more

October 15, 2026·16 min·5 namesRead

Frontier AIBig TechAI MonetizationHyperscalers

Who Will Win the Frontier AI Race? Meta's Muse Wonder and the Shareholders Paid Either Way

The frontier AI race is usually scored lab by lab. For shareholders it is scored by seats: Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Nvidia are paid whichever lab leads, SpaceX rents its cluster to a rival, Apple rents a model, and Meta, with Muse Wonder, funds its frontier bet alone.

GOOGLAMZNMSFTNVDASPCXAAPLMETA+3 more

October 13, 2026·13 min·7 namesRead

HealthcareRegulationBusiness Models

Humana Stock and the 2027 Medicare Star Ratings: A Payment, Not a Moat

Humana rose 12% on its 2027 Medicare star ratings while UnitedHealth and Elevance shrugged off their own drops and CVS slipped. The rise priced about five years of bonus for a rating that has swung 70 points twice in three years, which is a payment, not a moat.

HUMUNHCVSELV

October 10, 2026·15 min·4 namesRead

AI InfrastructureSemiconductorsBusiness Models

CoreWeave, Oracle and OpenAI's $50 Billion Revenue Report: Who Holds the Risk

OpenAI's revenue report sold AI stocks as one trade, but the risk sits where a big OpenAI contract has little moat or cash behind it, which puts CoreWeave and Oracle's shareholders first, ties Broadcom more closely than other chipmakers, and reaches Micron only through memory prices.

CRWVORCLMSFTAMZNAVGOAMDNVDAMU+4 more

October 9, 2026·10 min·8 namesRead

SemiconductorsAI InfrastructureCustom Silicon

Marvell Investor Day 2026: The $80 Billion Plan Leans on Interconnect

Marvell's investor day was covered as a custom chip story, but its FY2031 plan implies it needs about 58% of the interconnect market and about 13% of custom compute, so the socket worth watching is the optical DSP and the chips beside each accelerator, not the accelerator itself.

MRVLCRDOAVGOGOOGLNVDA+1 more

October 8, 2026·12 min·5 namesRead

NuclearAI InfrastructureBusiness Models

Constellation's Amazon and Google Nuclear Deals: Hyperscalers Pay for Added Megawatts

Constellation signed Amazon and Google in six days. The contracts matter more than the stock move: seven of the nine nuclear deals a named tech giant signed in this group add new capacity, and a March White House pledge made that the rule. Power companies now compete on how much they can still add.

CEGVSTNEETLNOKLO+1 more

October 6, 2026·11 min·5 namesRead

Enterprise SoftwareIndustrialsBusiness Models

Schneider Buys PTC for $22.6 Billion: A Buyer's Price, Not a Moat Price

Schneider Electric is paying a 42% premium for PTC, and Autodesk rose 6% on the read-across. The moat data says Schneider paid to fill a gap in its own portfolio: PTC's product record is real but shared with Siemens and Dassault, and Autodesk's looks the same, so the premium does not carry over.

PTCADSKPCORCDNSSNPSROKABB+3 more

October 5, 2026·10 min·7 namesRead

SemiconductorsAI InfrastructureHyperscalersBusiness Models

Nvidia Stock at a Record High: Why the AI Build-Out Splits Its Customers in Two

Nvidia hit a record on Morgan Stanley's case that its broad customer base wins as data-centre construction and financing become AI's constraint, but the buyers with gigawatt-scale workloads of their own are moving to custom chips faster, so CUDA's moat governs a narrower market than the record implies.

NVDAGOOGLAMZNMETAAVGOMSFTAMDCRWV+4 more

October 4, 2026·15 min·8 namesRead

IndustrialsAutosAIBusiness Models

Tesla Stock After the Q3 2026 Delivery Beat: The Moat Is Not in the Car Count

Tesla's 486,532 Q3 deliveries beat a 461,974 consensus and the stock rose, but its one strong moat is fleet data, so the car count is a budget for robotaxi rather than proof of a car business, and the rider-network pillar robotaxi needs is the one Tesla has not shown yet.

TSLAGOOGLUBERNVDA

October 3, 2026·11 min·4 namesRead

IndustrialsAI InfrastructureBusiness ModelsSpace

SpaceX Stock After Starship Flight 14: The AI Story Rides on Launch Cadence

Starship reached orbit and SPCX ran on the AI story, but SpaceX's compute buys the same NVIDIA chips as CoreWeave and Nebius, so on our reading it inherits a moat only through the rocket, which makes Starship's flight count the number that matters.

SPCXRKLBGOOGLCRWVNBIS+1 more

October 3, 2026·13 min·5 namesRead

ConsumerBusiness ModelsBrands

Nike's Q1 Earnings and the Repeat Purchase a Brand Does Not Own

Nike's Q1 FY2027 was scored as a brand recovery that slipped. The brand was never the problem. NIKE Direct fell again while North America wholesale grew 9%: the repeat purchase keeps moving to retailers. Across the Consumer label, who owns the next purchase is what sorts durable from cyclical.

NKELULUELSNRACECOSTWMT+3 more

October 1, 2026·13 min·7 namesRead

SemiconductorsAI InfrastructureBusiness ModelsMemory

Micron's Q4 2026 Earnings and the Contract at the Top of the Memory Cycle

Micron printed an 87% gross margin and the tape shrugged: memory at a record is a peak until proven otherwise. The number that decides the next downturn is not the margin. It is the take-or-pay contract signed at the top, and who holds one.

MU005930.KSNVDAAMDAVGOASMLKLAC+3 more

September 30, 2026·13 min·7 namesRead

Big TechConsumer AIWearablesBusiness Models

Meta Connect 2026: The Future of Meta Is the Agent on the Face, Not the Headset

Connect's headline was a 100-gram VR headset that ships next spring, but the device that decides Meta's next decade is the cheap pair of glasses already selling, because Muse is moving onto it and the frame revenue is not Meta's to keep.

METAAAPLGOOGLSNAPQCOM+1 more

September 24, 2026·14 min·5 namesRead

Big TechPlatformsBusiness ModelsAI Monetization

Amazon, Muse, and the Layer an Agent Can Skip

The tape read Amazon blocking Meta's Muse as the store losing its interface, and CoreWeave and Nebius as AWS losing the workload. Both stories sort on a layer an agent or a GPU renter can skip. The fortress is the layer they cannot.

AMZNMETASHOPWMTMSFTGOOGLCRWVNBIS+4 more

September 22, 2026·15 min·8 namesRead

CryptoDigital AssetsFrameworkMonetary

Bitcoin and the Crypto Exposure Slot

The tape recovered through Strategy's $75,416 cost basis. That is when the slot sells Coinbase and Strategy as Bitcoin. Bitcoin is still hard money. Ethereum is still the platform. Neither is a wrapper.

BTCETHXAUMSTRCOINSOL+2 more

September 22, 2026·13 min·6 namesRead

PlatformsMediaBusiness ModelsFramework

Netflix and the Content-Scale Floor

The tape files Netflix as a living-room OS because a content budget no rival can match looks like a fortress. The IM25 floor is built so a strong bundle cannot outvote intact-or-weaker durable pillars.

NFLXDISSPOTRDDTAMZN+1 more

September 21, 2026·12 min·5 namesRead

Big TechPlatformsBusiness Models

Amazon and the Moat the Market Still Calls Retail

The market sorts MAG7 by brand — Apple's devices, Microsoft's enterprise, Google's search. The moat matrix sorts by whether a company is the system of record in more than one industry. Amazon is the only name that is that record for physical commerce and for a hyperscale cloud at the same time.

AMZNMSFTAAPLGOOGLMETANVDANFLX+3 more

September 19, 2026·14 min·7 namesRead

CryptoHard AssetsMonetaryFramework

Bitcoin and the Digital-Gold Slot

The market prices Bitcoin as digital gold. Gold is a reserve metal the official sector still buys. Bitcoin is a monetary protocol the official sector still does not.

BTCXAUXAGETH

September 19, 2026·7 min·4 namesRead

IndustrialsRoboticsBusiness ModelsAI

FANUC and the Robotics Basket

The robotics tape prices FANUC, Yaskawa, Keyence, ABB, and Nabtesco with Tesla Optimus. FANUC's order surge is CNC, Yaskawa's is servo, ABB is selling the OEM, Nabtesco is the industrial joint. Optimus is still Construction.

FANUY6506.T6861.TISRGROKABBTER6268.T+6 more+2 more

September 19, 2026·24 min·10 namesRead

Consumer AIAI MonetizationBig TechBusiness Models

Meta's Muse Agent and the Habit Test

The market heard Muse and priced a ChatGPT rival. What shipped is a personal agent on iOS, Android, and muse.ai that also runs in WhatsApp, with glasses later, plus a separate Meta One bundle at 15 million subscriptions and trials. Agents sort on habit plus checkout. Alexa is this category without the habit.

METAGOOGLAAPLAMZNMSFTSHOPSNAP+3 more

September 19, 2026·16 min·7 namesRead

Enterprise SoftwareAIBusiness ModelsDefense

Palantir and the Layer an Agent Has to Call

The market spent 2026 pricing Palantir as a wrapper on someone else's model. Q2 ran that test at one customer. The wrapper lost. Software still sorts on whether the agent has to call the ontology, not on whether the company says AI.

PLTRNOWVEEVTEAMSNOWMDBMSFTLMT+4 more

September 19, 2026·14 min·8 namesRead

SemiconductorsBusiness ModelsAI InfrastructureFoundry

TSMC and the Process Step You Cannot Skip

A next-node chip still has to clear a step you cannot skip. TSMC is that foundry. NVIDIA is a cycle you can design around.

TSMASMLKLACCDNSSNPSNVDAAVGOIONQ+4 more

September 12, 2026·11 min·8 namesRead

Credit ScoringMortgageRegulationFinancials

FICO's Monopoly Did Not Die Today

The market treated all-lender VantageScore permission as the death of the FICO standard. Permission arrived in July 2025. Fifty lenders already delivered. Displacement is VantageScore taking the primary pull on more than 10% of conforming files by FY2028.

FICO

September 4, 2026·6 min·1 namesRead

Public SafetySoftwareAIPlatforms

Axon's Lock Is the Court Record, Not Draft One

The market prices Axon as an AI report-writer with a counter-drone spike. The switching cost is Evidence.com. Draft One is the attach on footage nobody else has. Dedrone above $100M for two clean quarters after the stadium work is the test of whether the bundle grew a product line or rented a World Cup.

AXON

September 1, 2026·5 min·1 namesRead

IndustrialsNuclearAI InfrastructureBusiness Models

GE Vernova and the AI-Electricity Basket

The market prices AI electricity as one power-stock basket; the print underneath sorts who has already sold the megawatt or the kit into a hyperscaler build from who is still a call on the megawatt.

GEVCEGVSTCCJTLN+1 more

August 25, 2026·10 min·5 namesRead

Hard AssetsNuclearBusiness ModelsCommodities

Cameco and the Uranium-Beta Trade

The market prices the nuclear renaissance as a uranium-spot basket; the framework sorts the same names by whether they are already inside a utility's fuel plan, or still a call option on the pound.

CCJLEUCEGKAPNXEUEC+2 more

August 13, 2026·10 min·6 namesRead

ObservabilityAI InfrastructureEnterprise SoftwareBusiness Models

Datadog and the Meter on the Cluster

The market gapped Datadog on a ~2% sequential guide as if the observability bill were a residual of the training cluster. Two days earlier Arista had already printed +12% sequential. The variable that decides whether a meter digests with the cluster is whether the agent can be turned off.

DDOGNETCRWDNVDAANETSMCI+2 more

August 13, 2026·9 min·6 namesRead

AdvertisingAI CapexBig TechAd Tech

Meta's Capex Has One Receipt, and It Is Price Per Ad

Meta spent $31.1B in a quarter and printed $784M of free cash flow, and the tape traded the capex line. The line that tests the build is the other one: price per ad up 12% for a second straight quarter while impressions decelerated. Only the outcome owner can charge for a better match.

METAGOOGLAMZNAPPZETATTDRDDTSPOT+5 more+1 more

July 31, 2026·18 min·9 namesRead

Enterprise SoftwareAI MonetizationBusiness Models

ServiceNow and the Seat-Pricing Question

The market spent the first half of 2026 pricing enterprise software for the collapse of per-seat billing. ServiceNow's Q2 is the first hard read on that fear — and it suggests the market indexed on the wrong variable.

NOWCRMADBEINTUOKTAFIGDDOGSNOW+6 more+2 more

July 28, 2026·9 min·10 namesRead

Financial InfrastructureSpin-offsBusiness ModelsCapital Allocation

S&P Global and the Half With the Moat

The market marked S&P Global down on a comparison with a company that no longer exists. The print underneath says something more useful: in financial infrastructure the growth sits in the half of the business that owns a benchmark, not the half that sells data.

SPGIMCOMSCIICEFICO+1 more

July 28, 2026·13 min·5 namesRead

AI CapexHyperscalersCapital AllocationBig Tech

The Odds on Alphabet's $200B AI Build

Alphabet beat on revenue, on Cloud and on margin, then fell about 5% because capex went up. The market is sorting hyperscalers by how much they spend. The variable that decides whether a build pays off is how much of it was sold before it was poured.

GOOGLMSFTAMZNORCLMETACRWVNBIS+3 more

July 28, 2026·16 min·7 namesRead

How this research works

Numbers stay live

Articles carry tickers, never scores. Every moat, growth and valuation figure resolves against the coverage registry at render time, with valuation recomputed from the current price.

Every thesis is falsifiable

Each piece states, in one sentence, the observation that would prove it wrong — and carries the date it was last checked against the underlying data.

Cross-cutting by design

A stock page underwrites one name. These read across four or more, where the comparison itself is the argument and the market has a story the data disputes.

Every piece has a Markdown mirror at /research/[slug]/llms.txt for agents and readers who prefer plain text. Start from the coverage universe to see the underwriting each argument is built on.