InvestMoat

KLAC in. NOW out.

Weekly check on the current scores. Every holding and the leading challenger were re-priced at the October 23 close, so they were compared on the same footing. One name left and one came in. The book stays at twenty-five, and every weight was re-struck from the new scores.

NOW out. A review against its closest rivals lowered three moat ratings. Its workflow data belongs to its customers, its ticket flow was being counted a second time beside its system of record, and it has no public data source. Its moat fell from 85 to 74, and with the stock now above its base case, its composite fell under the exit line of 75.

KLAC in. It was the best name outside the book. Its price fell with the rest of chip equipment in October on the same unchanged ladder, which lifted its valuation score.

Re-pricing moved the weights too. Payments and ratings names that rallied (MA, MSCI, SPGI, V, MCO) lost weight, and names that fell (ASML, MP, CCJ, AVGO, GOOGL) gained it.

Rules v3 · scores of Oct 23 · 12% of the book traded

NameMoveCompositeMoatWeight
KLACIn80.6 → 83.376 → 760% → 4%
NOWOut78.8 → 72.585 → 743% → 0%
SHOPKept78.1794% → 2%
ICEKept78.2893% → 2%
DDOGMissed79.9700%

No change. The buffer holds the book.

First check under v3 of the rules. A holding now keeps its seat while its composite stays at 75 or more, and a challenger has to beat the weakest holding by 5 points. Weights are re-struck only when a name moves.

ICE and SHOP stay. Their valuations were re-marked at the October 16 close and both slipped under 80, but both are still above the exit line of 75.

KLAC and DDOG stay out. Both clear the floors, but neither beats the weakest holding by 5 points. Without the buffer, both would have taken ICE's and SHOP's seats, three weeks after KLAC left and two weeks after DDOG did.

Rules v3 · scores of Oct 16 · nothing traded

NameMoveCompositeMoatWeight
ICEKept78.2893%
SHOPKept78.1794%
KLACMissed80.6760%
DDOGMissed79.9700%

MP, ICE in. PLTR, DDOG out.

Weekly check on the current scores. Two names fell under a composite of 80 and left. The next two names that clear both floors came in. The book stays at twenty-five, and every weight was re-struck from the new scores.

PLTR out. Its valuation was re-marked at the late-September price and no longer covers the gap.

DDOG out. Same re-mark: the price left too little upside to keep it above 80.

MP in. It runs the only scaled US rare-earth mine, backed by a federal price floor and a long offtake deal. It was added to coverage last week and clears both floors.

ICE in. It was the first name outside the book last time and now has a seat.

Rules v2 · scores of Oct 2 · 13% of the book traded

NameMoveCompositeMoatWeight
MPIn82.2730% → 4%
ICEIn80890% → 3%
PLTROut84.3 → 7977 → 774% → 0%
DDOGOut82.2 → 78.872 → 724% → 0%

NVDA, DASH, GOOGL, AVGO, SPCX, BTC in. LLY, VST, LMT, RDDT, GEV, KLAC out.

Scores were re-checked across coverage last week. Six names fell under a composite of 80 and left. Six names that clear both floors came in. The book stays at twenty-five, and every weight was re-struck from the new scores.

LLY out. Its regulatory protection now rates the same as Novo Nordisk's, and growth was cut to a pace a company its size can hold.

VST out. Its nuclear licences and subsidies are shared with its peers, so they no longer count as a moat of its own.

LMT out. Its lock-in on defence programmes is shared with the other primes, and its price targets were re-struck lower.

RDDT out. Its data is large but not unique. The moat now sits right on the floor, and the price does not make up the gap.

GEV out. Every strong rating had to be proven last week, and its moat came in lower.

KLAC out. Same review, same result: a lower moat left it just under 80.

NVDA in. It clears both floors by a wide margin. It had been held out of the opening book, and that hold no longer applies.

DASH in. Its marketplace moat held up when every strong rating had to be proven.

GOOGL in. It was the narrow miss at the opening and now clears both floors.

AVGO in. A pillar that never applied to it stopped counting against it.

SPCX in. Its launch-cost and spectrum advantages held up in the industrials review.

BTC in. Crypto ratings now need proof too, and Bitcoin's held.

Rules v2 · scores of Sep 25 · 27% of the book traded

NameMoveCompositeMoatWeight
NVDAIn85.2820% → 5%
DASHIn81.4830% → 4%
GOOGLIn81.1830% → 3%
AVGOIn81.1720% → 3%
SPCXIn80.6780% → 3%
BTCIn80.3940% → 3%
LLYOut83.3 → 76.980 → 724% → 0%
VSTOut82.2 → 78.483 → 724% → 0%
LMTOut80.4 → 77.483 → 764% → 0%
RDDTOut76.2 → 72.879 → 704% → 0%
GEVOut79.4 → 76.582 → 733% → 0%
KLACOut81.3 → 79.186 → 783% → 0%

Nothing moved. This is the opening book.

August 21 close. That day's photograph. Each name had to clear composite 80 and moat 70. From the ones that did, we took the top 25 by that day's live composite. No name over 10% of the book.

After that, price only marks how the race is going. It does not hire or fire. Nothing had tripped yet. These twenty-five cleared the floors on that tape — not a forecast of who would win.

Rules v1

The rules have changed since the opening book, so the record is split by the version in force. Turnover since inception is 56% one-way, about 296% a year. The scoreboard does not charge trading costs; at 10 bps a side, NAV 101.73 would be 101.62.

v1 · Opening rulesAug 21–Sep 25 · IM25 -1.24% · S&P 500 +1.01%
  • Composite of 80 or more and moat of 70 or more, top 25 by that day's live composite.
  • Weights scored once at the freeze, 10% cap, then held.
  • APP, GOOGL and NVDA were named exclusions at the freeze.
  • Exception: September 18: CRWD left under a one-off rule (its live valuation pillar printed under 55) that no later version kept.
v2 · Proof-point standardSep 28–Oct 16 · IM25 +0.68% · S&P 500 -1.29%
  • Every strong moat rating must cite a proof point, crypto and commodity ratings included.
  • Rebalances use the static composite. Composite 80 and moat 70 to stay or enter, top 25.
  • All weights re-struck at every rebalance.
v3 · Exit buffer and moat trajectoryOct 19–Oct 29 · IM25 +2.32% · S&P 500 +0.81%
  • Moat is 70% today's rating and 30% the projected 5–10 year moat.
  • Always 25 names. Weight scales from nothing at composite 70 to full at 80; the rest is held in VOO.
  • A holding keeps its seat while its composite is 75 or more and its moat 70 or more.
  • A challenger needs a composite of 80 and must beat the weakest holding by 5 points.
  • Weights are re-struck only when a name enters or leaves.