Moog Inc.
Combined average of Moat (AI Resilience), Growth, and Valuation scores.
Moat Score
Moog designs the actuators and control systems that move flight surfaces, steer missiles and point spacecraft. Once its hardware is qualified on an aircraft or missile, replacing it means requalifying a flight-critical system, so Moog tends to supply that platform for its whole production run and then its aftermarket. The weakness is price: margins around 14% show a supplier that wins long positions through competitive bids against Parker and Collins, not one that can reprice its installed base the way TransDigm does.
Moog's moat is flight-critical incumbency: it is very hard to remove once qualified, but the positions are won in competitive bids and priced accordingly:
- Qualification Is the Barrier: Primary flight-control actuation on the F-35, the Boeing 787 and the V-22, and the flight controls on the Army's new MV-75 tiltrotor, are certified as part of the aircraft. A rival would have to repeat the qualification and flight testing, and no airframer or program office takes that risk mid-program. Missile steering controls and spacecraft actuation work the same way, which is why Space and Defense sales rose 17% to $336 million in Q3 FY2026.
- Aftermarket Follows the Installed Base: Every aircraft that carries Moog actuators needs repairs and spares from Moog or its licensed shops for decades. Military Aircraft sales rose 9% in Q3 FY2026 on strong aftermarket activity, and Commercial Aircraft rose 17% on production volume, pricing and spares. That annuity is real, but Moog does not own most of its content outright as a sole-source proprietary part the way TransDigm does, so its aftermarket pricing is closer to cost-plus than monopoly.
- Bid Economics Cap the Returns: New platforms are won in competitions against Parker Aerospace, Collins Aerospace and Woodward, often on fixed-price development contracts that Moog has had to write down in the past. The FY2026 adjusted operating margin guide of 14.1% includes about 270 basis points of one-off tariff refunds, so the underlying margin is nearer 11–12%. Management's simplification programme is lifting that, but the moat protects volume more than price.
Moat Verdict
Moog's moat is physical and regulatory: flight-critical hardware qualified on long-lived platforms, which AI cannot copy and which grows as defense and space budgets rise. AI is a modest tailwind through data-centre cooling pumps, and the main weakness is not disruption but pricing power, since Moog wins new positions in competitive bids rather than setting prices on an installed monopoly.
74.8 resilient · 65.0 vulnerable · 80/20 = 72.8 · = 73
Open a moat to read its note.
Moog sells actuators, servo valves and control electronics to airframers and industrial OEMs; there is no user-trained software interface to relearn.
Flight-control software is embedded in certified hardware, and the lock-in comes from qualification rather than from software logic, so it is rated under regulatory lock-in.
Moog does not control access to any public data source.
Servo-hydraulic and electromechanical flight-control engineering is a narrow speciality, and Moog's engineering base is one of few outside the largest primes; Parker, Collins and Woodward draw on the same pool, so it is an advantage rather than an exclusive one.
Moog sells integrated flight-control packages (actuators, electronics and software) rather than single components, which raises the cost of splitting the award, but airframers still compete each package separately.
Qualification test data and decades of fleet reliability history on its own actuators help Moog certify derivatives faster, but the data describe its own hardware and do not stop a rival from qualifying a new design on a new platform.
Primary flight-control actuation is certified as part of the aircraft, so once Moog is qualified on a platform such as the F-35, 787, V-22 or MV-75 it supplies that platform for a production and service life that often exceeds 30 years; replacing it mid-program would mean requalifying a flight-critical system, which program offices and airframers do not do.
Actuators are sold platform by platform; one customer's purchase does not make the product more valuable to another.
Aftermarket repairs and spares for the installed base flow back to Moog for decades, but much of that work is priced under government and airframer agreements rather than as sole-source proprietary parts, so the embedding protects volume more than price.
Moog is a hardware supplier and is not the authoritative record for any information function.
Not a source of durability here: Parker Aerospace and Collins are larger in the same markets, and Moog's cost position comes from its engineering and incumbency rather than a structural unit-cost lead.
B2B supplier to airframers, defense primes and industrial OEMs; awards are won on qualification and bids, not on a brand premium.
Combined average of Moat (AI Resilience), Growth, and Valuation scores.
Moat Score
Moog designs the actuators and control systems that move flight surfaces, steer missiles and point spacecraft. Once its hardware is qualified on an aircraft or missile, replacing it means requalifying a flight-critical system, so Moog tends to supply that platform for its whole production run and then its aftermarket. The weakness is price: margins around 14% show a supplier that wins long positions through competitive bids against Parker and Collins, not one that can reprice its installed base the way TransDigm does.
Growth Score
Moog is growing faster than it has in a decade. Q3 FY2026 sales rose 15% to a record $1.1 billion, the 12-month backlog rose 23% to $3.3 billion, and full-year guidance was raised to $4.4 billion of sales and $11.65 of adjusted EPS. Defense is the engine, with missile controls, space vehicles and the MV-75 ramp, while data-centre cooling pumps have turned the Industrial segment into a grower. Commercial aircraft growth depends on Boeing and Airbus production rates.
Valuation Score
At the $387.80 close on September 25, 2026 the stock sits between a $290 bear case and a $440 base case, about 13% below the base. That is about 33 times FY2026 adjusted EPS of $11.65, which already flatters earnings with one-off tariff refunds, so the stock is priced as a defense grower rather than a cyclical supplier. It is down from a 52-week high near $449 after doubling from its low near $194.
Qualified for the Life of the Platform
Moog's moat is flight-critical incumbency: it is very hard to remove once qualified, but the positions are won in competitive bids and priced accordingly:
- Qualification Is the Barrier: Primary flight-control actuation on the F-35, the Boeing 787 and the V-22, and the flight controls on the Army's new MV-75 tiltrotor, are certified as part of the aircraft. A rival would have to repeat the qualification and flight testing, and no airframer or program office takes that risk mid-program. Missile steering controls and spacecraft actuation work the same way, which is why Space and Defense sales rose 17% to $336 million in Q3 FY2026.
- Aftermarket Follows the Installed Base: Every aircraft that carries Moog actuators needs repairs and spares from Moog or its licensed shops for decades. Military Aircraft sales rose 9% in Q3 FY2026 on strong aftermarket activity, and Commercial Aircraft rose 17% on production volume, pricing and spares. That annuity is real, but Moog does not own most of its content outright as a sole-source proprietary part the way TransDigm does, so its aftermarket pricing is closer to cost-plus than monopoly.
- Bid Economics Cap the Returns: New platforms are won in competitions against Parker Aerospace, Collins Aerospace and Woodward, often on fixed-price development contracts that Moog has had to write down in the past. The FY2026 adjusted operating margin guide of 14.1% includes about 270 basis points of one-off tariff refunds, so the underlying margin is nearer 11–12%. Management's simplification programme is lifting that, but the moat protects volume more than price.
Moat Verdict
Moog's moat is physical and regulatory: flight-critical hardware qualified on long-lived platforms, which AI cannot copy and which grows as defense and space budgets rise. AI is a modest tailwind through data-centre cooling pumps, and the main weakness is not disruption but pricing power, since Moog wins new positions in competitive bids rather than setting prices on an installed monopoly.
74.8 resilient · 65.0 vulnerable · 80/20 = 72.8 · = 73
Open a moat to read its note.
Moog sells actuators, servo valves and control electronics to airframers and industrial OEMs; there is no user-trained software interface to relearn.
Flight-control software is embedded in certified hardware, and the lock-in comes from qualification rather than from software logic, so it is rated under regulatory lock-in.
Moog does not control access to any public data source.
Servo-hydraulic and electromechanical flight-control engineering is a narrow speciality, and Moog's engineering base is one of few outside the largest primes; Parker, Collins and Woodward draw on the same pool, so it is an advantage rather than an exclusive one.
Moog sells integrated flight-control packages (actuators, electronics and software) rather than single components, which raises the cost of splitting the award, but airframers still compete each package separately.
Qualification test data and decades of fleet reliability history on its own actuators help Moog certify derivatives faster, but the data describe its own hardware and do not stop a rival from qualifying a new design on a new platform.
Primary flight-control actuation is certified as part of the aircraft, so once Moog is qualified on a platform such as the F-35, 787, V-22 or MV-75 it supplies that platform for a production and service life that often exceeds 30 years; replacing it mid-program would mean requalifying a flight-critical system, which program offices and airframers do not do.
Actuators are sold platform by platform; one customer's purchase does not make the product more valuable to another.
Aftermarket repairs and spares for the installed base flow back to Moog for decades, but much of that work is priced under government and airframer agreements rather than as sole-source proprietary parts, so the embedding protects volume more than price.
Moog is a hardware supplier and is not the authoritative record for any information function.
Not a source of durability here: Parker Aerospace and Collins are larger in the same markets, and Moog's cost position comes from its engineering and incumbency rather than a structural unit-cost lead.
B2B supplier to airframers, defense primes and industrial OEMs; awards are won on qualification and bids, not on a brand premium.
Growth Analysis
Growth Drivers
Key Risk
Moog carries fixed-price development work on new platforms such as the MV-75, where cost overruns land on its margin, and its commercial business depends on Boeing and Airbus hitting their production ramps. The FY2026 margin also includes about 270 basis points of one-off tariff refunds that will not repeat, so FY2027 earnings growth has a tougher comparison than the sales line suggests.
Score Derivation
70.7 base + 2.7 trajectory + 4 margin − 5 risk = 72
Base 70.7 (8.5% midpoint of 7–10%) + 2.7 trajectory (defense and industrial accelerating on backlog and data-centre pumps; commercial aircraft stable at airframer build rates) + 4 expanding margin (adjusted operating margin up 80 basis points in the underlying business, before one-off tariff refunds) − 5 moderate risk (fixed-price development programs and dependence on Boeing and Airbus build rates) = 72
Price Scenarios (12–24 Months)
Valuation Analysis
Moog trades at about 33 times FY2026 adjusted EPS, a premium to its own history and close to larger aerospace suppliers with higher margins. The base case assumes FY2027 adjusted EPS of about $12.5–13 after the tariff refunds roll off, and a multiple around 34–35 times as defense backlog converts. Net leverage of about 1.8 times is conservative for the sector. $440.
Where We Are vs Targets
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The tariff-refund boost fades, a fixed-price program takes a charge, and the multiple compresses toward the mid-20s as defense growth normalises.
- FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance comes in near or below FY2026's $11.65 once the one-off tariff refunds drop out
- A cost overrun on a fixed-price development program such as MV-75 flight controls forces a charge and reopens the question of Moog's bid discipline
- Boeing 787 or 737 production slips again and Commercial Aircraft growth falls back to low single digits
The 12-month backlog converts on schedule, underlying margins keep rising after the refunds roll off, and the market keeps paying a defense-grower multiple.
- FY2027 sales grow high single digits from the $4.4B FY2026 base, with Space and Defense still growing double digits
- Adjusted operating margin excluding tariff refunds rises toward 12.5% as the simplification programme and pricing work through
- Free-cash-flow conversion improves from about 70% toward the 90–100% target as working capital normalises
Missile and space demand keeps accelerating, data-centre cooling becomes a large industrial franchise, and margins reach the mid-teens without one-offs.
- The 12-month backlog grows above 20% again as missile production ramps for munitions restocking and new space programs
- Industrial data-centre cooling pump sales keep growing at a double-digit pace and Moog wins new hyperscaler cooling programs
- Underlying adjusted operating margin reaches 14% or more without tariff refunds, supporting EPS growth in the high teens