Combined average of Moat (AI Resilience), Growth, and Valuation scores.
Moat Score
One of the few volume suppliers of indium-phosphide lasers for AI datacenter optics, with laser shipments behind demand and new lines in optical circuit switches and co-packaged optics. A component franchise with real qualification friction, but every socket has a second source.
Lumentum's edge is indium-phosphide laser capacity and design-ins at the point where AI clusters are supply-constrained, not a platform customers cannot leave:
- Indium-Phosphide Laser Capacity: Datacenter transceivers at 800G and 1.6T need high-speed EML and CW lasers built in indium-phosphide fabs, and few companies run those fabs at volume. Management says high-power laser shipments are well behind demand and pump lasers are effectively sold out. Capacity comes from two Japan wafer fabs, with first revenue from a Greensboro fab expected in early 2028.
- New Lines: OCS and Co-Packaged Optics: Optical circuit switches for hyperscale AI clusters are starting to layer into revenue, and demand for ultra-high-power lasers for co-packaged optics is rising. These are design-ins on next-generation architectures, which is where the growth band above 25% comes from. Coherent, Broadcom and Chinese laser makers compete for the same sockets.
- Modules After Cloud Light: The Cloud Light acquisition took Lumentum from lasers into finished cloud transceiver modules, now advancing 1.6T adoption. Selling the laser and the module widens what it ships per port, but module buyers multi-source from Coherent, Innolight and Eoptolink, so it is a bundle without disclosed attach.
Moat Verdict
Lumentum's moat is capacity and qualification in a supply-constrained part of the AI rack: talent, laser IP, bundle, design-in embedding and fab scale are all intact, and none is strong without a disclosed share or contract figure. None of it is AI-vulnerable software; the AI-era risk is the capex cycle and whether rivals add laser capacity faster, which sits in growth.
65.0 resilient · 65.0 vulnerable · 80/20 = 65.0 · = 65
Open a moat to read its note.
Optical component supplier; no user interface to learn.
Indium-phosphide laser process and packaging know-how is manufacturing know-how, not software business logic (rule M7).
No public-data asset.
Indium-phosphide laser and photonics engineers are scarce, but Coherent, Broadcom and Marvell hire from the same pool (rule M8).
Lasers, cloud modules after Cloud Light, OCS and CPO lasers widen what Lumentum ships per port, but there is no attach or renewal figure and module buyers multi-source (rule M9).
EML, CW and high-power laser designs and indium-phosphide process IP are real; Coherent and Broadcom hold equivalent laser IP, so it is not a class of data or design no peer holds.
No licence or approval gates optical components beyond standard export compliance.
No network effects in component sales.
A laser qualified into a transceiver or GPU-platform reference design tends to persist through that platform generation, but sockets are dual-sourced against Coherent and others and there is no disclosed contract or customer-retention figure. Credo's strong rating rests on four 10%-plus customers inside AEC reference designs; Lumentum discloses no equivalent.
Hardware component, not a record of any business function.
Few companies run indium-phosphide laser fabs at volume, which bars entrants while lasers are short. Coherent runs comparable capacity, so it is not a unit-cost lead over peers.
Buyers qualify components on performance and supply, which the other pillars rate.
Moat in 5–10 years
Lumentum's moats hold at their current levels. Laser shortages make the scale pillar look wider today, but Coherent and Chinese suppliers are adding capacity, so it is not called as widening. OCS and CPO are new design-ins rather than deeper lock-in on existing ones; if OCS wins at several hyperscalers with a disclosed revenue figure, embedding is the pillar to revisit.
No moat trending · 65 holds
Combined average of Moat (AI Resilience), Growth, and Valuation scores.
Moat Score
One of the few volume suppliers of indium-phosphide lasers for AI datacenter optics, with laser shipments behind demand and new lines in optical circuit switches and co-packaged optics. A component franchise with real qualification friction, but every socket has a second source.
Growth Score
Q4 FY2026 (ended June 27, reported August 11) printed revenue of $1.006B (+109% YoY, +24.5% QoQ), non-GAAP gross margin of 50.4%, non-GAAP operating margin of 36.6% and non-GAAP EPS of $3.23 against $2.97 expected. Components were $649M and systems $357M. FY2026 revenue was $3.01B (+83%) with non-GAAP EPS of $8.67. The GAAP loss of $(84.65) per share was a one-time, non-cash $7.8B loss on equitizing convertible notes, which also lifted common shares to 88.6M from 69.8M; non-GAAP diluted shares were 101.1M. Q1 FY2027 is guided to $1.225–1.275B, a 39.5–40.5% non-GAAP operating margin and $4.05–4.35 of EPS. FY2027 consensus revenue is about $6.3B. The stock fell 11.5% on October 22 with the AI-optics group after a hot inflation print; Lumentum reports Q1 on November 4.
Valuation Score
At $756.17 (October 23 close, ~$67B on 88.6M common shares) Lumentum is ~29% below where it traded on October 8 (~$94.7B) after the October AI-optics selloff. FY2027 consensus net income of ~$1.6B (Trefis, October 8) is ~$15.8 per non-GAAP diluted share (101.1M), and FY2028's ~$2.4B is ~$23.8, so spot is ~48× FY2027 and ~32× FY2028. The base is ~36× FY2028, close to Marvell's ~41× FY2028 base on a similar growth band; the bear is ~30× FY2027 if capacity or a socket slips, and the bull ~40× a FY2028 near $31. Spot is ~75% of the way from the $480 bear to the $850 base, for a valuation score of 71. The base is ~0.79× the $1,081 Street mean.
The Laser Bottleneck
Lumentum's edge is indium-phosphide laser capacity and design-ins at the point where AI clusters are supply-constrained, not a platform customers cannot leave:
- Indium-Phosphide Laser Capacity: Datacenter transceivers at 800G and 1.6T need high-speed EML and CW lasers built in indium-phosphide fabs, and few companies run those fabs at volume. Management says high-power laser shipments are well behind demand and pump lasers are effectively sold out. Capacity comes from two Japan wafer fabs, with first revenue from a Greensboro fab expected in early 2028.
- New Lines: OCS and Co-Packaged Optics: Optical circuit switches for hyperscale AI clusters are starting to layer into revenue, and demand for ultra-high-power lasers for co-packaged optics is rising. These are design-ins on next-generation architectures, which is where the growth band above 25% comes from. Coherent, Broadcom and Chinese laser makers compete for the same sockets.
- Modules After Cloud Light: The Cloud Light acquisition took Lumentum from lasers into finished cloud transceiver modules, now advancing 1.6T adoption. Selling the laser and the module widens what it ships per port, but module buyers multi-source from Coherent, Innolight and Eoptolink, so it is a bundle without disclosed attach.
Moat Verdict
Lumentum's moat is capacity and qualification in a supply-constrained part of the AI rack: talent, laser IP, bundle, design-in embedding and fab scale are all intact, and none is strong without a disclosed share or contract figure. None of it is AI-vulnerable software; the AI-era risk is the capex cycle and whether rivals add laser capacity faster, which sits in growth.
65.0 resilient · 65.0 vulnerable · 80/20 = 65.0 · = 65
Open a moat to read its note.
Optical component supplier; no user interface to learn.
Indium-phosphide laser process and packaging know-how is manufacturing know-how, not software business logic (rule M7).
No public-data asset.
Indium-phosphide laser and photonics engineers are scarce, but Coherent, Broadcom and Marvell hire from the same pool (rule M8).
Lasers, cloud modules after Cloud Light, OCS and CPO lasers widen what Lumentum ships per port, but there is no attach or renewal figure and module buyers multi-source (rule M9).
EML, CW and high-power laser designs and indium-phosphide process IP are real; Coherent and Broadcom hold equivalent laser IP, so it is not a class of data or design no peer holds.
No licence or approval gates optical components beyond standard export compliance.
No network effects in component sales.
A laser qualified into a transceiver or GPU-platform reference design tends to persist through that platform generation, but sockets are dual-sourced against Coherent and others and there is no disclosed contract or customer-retention figure. Credo's strong rating rests on four 10%-plus customers inside AEC reference designs; Lumentum discloses no equivalent.
Hardware component, not a record of any business function.
Few companies run indium-phosphide laser fabs at volume, which bars entrants while lasers are short. Coherent runs comparable capacity, so it is not a unit-cost lead over peers.
Buyers qualify components on performance and supply, which the other pillars rate.
Moat in 5–10 years
Lumentum's moats hold at their current levels. Laser shortages make the scale pillar look wider today, but Coherent and Chinese suppliers are adding capacity, so it is not called as widening. OCS and CPO are new design-ins rather than deeper lock-in on existing ones; if OCS wins at several hyperscalers with a disclosed revenue figure, embedding is the pillar to revisit.
No moat trending · 65 holds
Growth Analysis
Growth Drivers
Key Risk
Lumentum's FY2027–28 path depends on adding indium-phosphide capacity on time and on a small set of hyperscale and GPU-platform customers. If the Greensboro fab slips past early 2028, Coherent or Chinese laser makers take next-generation sockets, or hyperscaler AI capex pauses, revenue falls short of the ~$6.3B FY2027 consensus. Falsifiable: two consecutive quarters of sequential revenue decline, or non-GAAP operating margin back below 30%.
Score Derivation
90.0 base + 4.0 trajectory + 4 margin − 10 risk = 88
Base 90 (25–35% CAGR, midpoint 30%) + 4 trajectory (laser components, cloud modules and OCS all accelerating) + 4 margin (non-GAAP operating margin from ~16% a year earlier to 36.6% in Q4 FY26, 39.5–40.5% guided) − 10 high risk (hyperscaler AI capex, laser capacity timing and a concentrated customer list; the AI-hardware step under rule G4) = 88
Price Scenarios (12–24 Months)
Price vs Targets
Dashed lines mark the 12–24 month bear, base and bull targets. Daily closes.
Valuation Multiples
| Forward P/E (FY27, June 2027) | ~48× |
| Forward P/E (FY28) | ~32× |
| Run-rate P/E (Q1 FY27 guide) | ~45× |
| Price / Sales (FY27 consensus) | ~11× |
Lumentum is priced as a hypergrowth component supplier: the multiple only works if FY2028 earnings roughly double FY2027's as the new capacity lands. The common share count rose from 69.8M to 88.6M when the convertibles were equitized, so per-share figures use the non-GAAP diluted count, not the common count.
Approximate figures as of October 23, 2026 (price $756.17).
Where We Are vs Targets
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Laser capacity arrives late or a next-generation socket goes to a rival, FY2027 lands below consensus, and the stock trades at ~30× FY2027 EPS.
- Q1 FY27 meets $1.25B but Q2 guides flat as laser output, not demand, caps revenue
- Coherent or a Chinese laser maker wins a next-generation 1.6T or CPO socket
- The Greensboro fab slips past early 2028, pushing FY2028 consensus down
FY2027 lands near the ~$6.3B consensus, operating margin holds around 40%, and the market pays ~36× a FY2028 EPS near $24.
- Q1 FY27 delivers $1.225–1.275B and $4.05–4.35, with operating margin near 40%
- OCS and CPO lasers become a visible revenue line through FY2027
- Japan fab expansion keeps laser shipments growing until Greensboro adds capacity in 2028
Laser shortages persist into 2028, OCS and CPO become a second franchise, FY2028 EPS reaches ~$31, and the market pays ~40×.
- Co-packaged optics adoption on GPU platforms pulls ultra-high-power laser demand forward
- OCS wins at more than one hyperscaler
- Pricing on constrained lasers lifts operating margin above 40%
LITE: common questions
Is Lumentum stock a buy?
We rate Lumentum Accumulate, with a composite score of 76/100: moat 65, growth 88 and valuation 71. The valuation score is struck against our bear, base and bull targets and moves with the price.
What is Lumentum's moat?
Lumentum scores 65/100 on moat. One of the few volume suppliers of indium-phosphide lasers for AI datacenter optics, with laser shipments behind demand and new lines in optical circuit switches and co-packaged optics. A component franchise with real qualification friction, but every socket has a second source.
How fast is Lumentum expected to grow?
We estimate 25–35% a year over the next three to five years, for a growth score of 88/100.
What is Lumentum's price target?
Our base case is $850, with $480 in the bear case and $1,250 in the bull case.