Combined average of Moat (AI Resilience), Growth, and Valuation scores.
Moat Score
QuickBooks remains the system of record for 7M+ SMBs (~60% of FY26 revenue). Proprietary data, regulatory lock-in, transaction embedding, and system of record stay strong. Network effects are an accountant channel, not a two-sided network — marked intact, same bar as ServiceNow's partner ecosystem. TurboTax printed +7% with Live +37% (53% of TurboTax) while U.S. units fell 2% to 39.0M. Mailchimp as its own FY27 segment, guided flat to −1%, confirms the weakened bundle. This review marks the channel down; the beat does not mark anything up.
Intuit's moat profile is sharply polarised: four AI-resilient moats (proprietary data, regulatory lock-in, transaction embedding, system of record) remain strong, network effects are an intact accountant channel rather than a Metcalfe network, and four of five AI-vulnerable moats stay weakened with businessLogic intact. FY26 printed the guide; Mailchimp's segment split and the DIY unit decline are the filing facts that belong on this card. The channel mark-down is a grading correction against the house bar, not a new competitive event.
- QuickBooks: The Fortress Holds (~60% of FY26 Revenue): GBS printed $12.9B, +16% (ex-Mailchimp +18%); Online Ecosystem $9.9B, +19% (ex-Mailchimp +23%). QuickBooks Online Accounting +23% FY / +20% Q4. The 7M+ SMB system of record (payroll, invoicing, taxes, lending) is unchanged; call color (not exhibit) has 8.9M Online paying customers, +3%, and Intuit Intelligence in-market (paid 4 days faster, 30% less manual work). AI-native challengers (Puzzle, Digits) remain subscale. FY27 GBS (now ex-Mailchimp as a reportable segment) is guided +13–14% — a restated mix, not a moat change.
- TurboTax / Credit Karma: Live Mix vs DIY Units (Consumer 40% of FY26): Consumer printed $8.6B, +11%. TurboTax $5.3B, +7%; TurboTax Live +37% and 53% of TurboTax revenue. U.S. TurboTax units 39.0M vs 39.9M (−2%) — Desktop −7%, Online −2%. Credit Karma $2.6B, +20% (Q4 $743M, +16%). IRS Direct File is still gone; FreeTaxUSA and Wealthsimple Tax still chip DIY. FY27 Consumer +4–6% / TurboTax +2–3% is a deliberate DIY price-value reset (call), not a reason to mark regulatoryLockIn or systemOfRecord down. Investor Day is Sep 17.
- Mailchimp Pullback Weakens the Bundle Thesis: Effective Aug 1, Mailchimp is a separate operating segment; it is a reportable segment beginning FY27, guided $1.256–$1.266B, (1)% to 0%. That is the filing confirmation of the pullback already charged as bundling weakened — Intuit is a QuickBooks-centric platform with supporting consumer products and a standalone Mailchimp P&L, not a four-way bundle. Q4 restructuring $293M (the 17% cut). Status held. Do not mark this up, or further down, because they beat.
Moat Verdict
Intuit is a net beneficiary of AI on balance — its proprietary financial dataset (~100M customers' tax returns, SMB financials, credit profiles) becomes the training-data moat as Intuit Intelligence commoditises interface and business-logic advantages. Four AI-resilient pillars stay strong (data, regulatory, embedding, system of record); network effects were marked down to intact because the accountant channel is not a two-sided network. The Q4/FY2026 beat ($21.448B, +14%) does not repair the soft spot: bundling stays weakened because Mailchimp is now its own FY27 segment guided flat to −1%, and the vulnerable DIY interface is the same pillar behind the −2% TurboTax unit print. Durability now hinges on whether GBS +13–14% and Live mix fund the FY27 9–10% guide while new-to-franchise acquisition (the stated FY27 priority) rebuilds the DIY funnel — Q1 $4.294–$4.313B and Investor Day Sep 17 are the next checkpoints.
82.2 resilient · 45.5 vulnerable · 80/20 = 74.9 · + 1 strength · = 76
Open a moat to read its note.
TurboTax's guided interview is directly challenged by AI agents that offer conversational, zero-UI tax filing — including Intuit's own Intuit Intelligence / filing agents, which abstract the UI that created the switching cost. QuickBooks' interface is stickier but copilots are doing the same abstraction there. FY26 DIY unit decline does not change this status.
QuickBooks' per-SMB configuration depth (chart of accounts, payroll rules, tax integrations, custom invoicing) still requires years of accumulated business logic that AI can't replicate from scratch. IRS Direct File's death removes the biggest government-backed alternative. AI startups haven't cracked enterprise-grade bookkeeping lock-in at scale. No new filing in this print changes that.
Tax forms, IRS regulations, and accounting standards are public — AI navigates them efficiently, commoditising Intuit's simplification value. The moat is proprietary user data, not public-data navigation.
The 17% workforce cut and Q4 $293M restructuring charge are themselves evidence that AI has reduced the talent moat — Intuit is operating with a leaner bench. Intuit Intelligence further lowers the barrier that made TurboTax's guided logic hard to replicate. Status held; the charge printing is not a new pillar fact.
Mailchimp is a separate operating segment effective Aug 1 and a reportable segment in FY27, guided $1.256–$1.266B, (1)% to 0%. That is the filing confirmation of the four-product bundle pullback, not a further status cut — the pillar was already weakened. Intuit is a QuickBooks-centric platform with supporting consumer products and a standalone Mailchimp P&L. Do not mark this up because they beat.
Tax return data, SMB financial records, and credit profiles for ~100M customers (PR) — with tens of thousands of attributes per consumer (call: >70,000 tax and financial attributes) — is the training set behind Intuit Intelligence. AI makes this moat stronger as the data becomes the training advantage. No new filing weakens it.
IRS authorised e-file provider status, state tax agency relationships and payroll-tax compliance are required to operate, and IRS Direct File's elimination removed a government competitor — but H&R Block, TaxAct and many payroll providers hold the same authorisations. Standard certifications are table stakes in this market — they bar small entrants, not the peers this name competes with — so they rate intact; strong is reserved for a barrier few competitors in the market can clear. Re-rated from strong to intact.
CPA-client ecosystem is a real indirect channel: call color (not exhibit) has 150,000+ accountants on Intuit Accountant Suite, and they drove 25% of new IES contracts. Credit Karma adds a consumer marketplace. That is a default-and-referral flywheel, not Metcalfe — the same shape as ServiceNow's implementation-partner network, which the book rates intact. strong on this pillar is Visa's two-sided network. Marked down from strong on a software-sector consistency review; no new filing weakened the channel.
Payroll runs, invoicing, tax filing, expense tracking, B2B payments, and lending are embedded in daily SMB operations. Call color (not exhibit): $2.7T of invoices through QuickBooks per year; online payment volume including Bill Pay >$225B, +30% FY. Intuit Intelligence deepens that embedding by acting inside the workflow. Status held.
QuickBooks is the system of record for 7M+ small business finances; TurboTax holds the authoritative tax history of tens of millions of households (FY26 39.0M U.S. units). Migration risk is prohibitive — you'd lose years of financial history, reconciliation records, and audit trails. The −2% unit print does not make this weakened.
Software at near-zero marginal cost: scale shows up as network effects, data or bundling, which are rated there. No separate unit-cost lead to credit.
TurboTax is the default DIY tax brand and holds price, but IRS Direct File and AI-native preparers test the premium each season.
Moat in 5–10 years
Intuit's moats hold at their current level. The three strong pillars (the tax and SMB financial dataset, payroll and payments embedding, and the QuickBooks and TurboTax records) are not being taken by a named rival, and IRS Direct File's end removed the government alternative. The interface, bundle and talent pillars are already rated weakened for AI filing agents, the TurboTax unit decline and the Mailchimp separation, so no further step is called. AI-native bookkeeping (Puzzle, Digits, Campfire) is the mechanism that could narrow the QuickBooks record, but the keyRisk test of 5% of the SMB base by FY2028 has not been met, so it is a watch item.
No moat trending · 76 holds
Combined average of Moat (AI Resilience), Growth, and Valuation scores.
Moat Score
QuickBooks remains the system of record for 7M+ SMBs (~60% of FY26 revenue). Proprietary data, regulatory lock-in, transaction embedding, and system of record stay strong. Network effects are an accountant channel, not a two-sided network — marked intact, same bar as ServiceNow's partner ecosystem. TurboTax printed +7% with Live +37% (53% of TurboTax) while U.S. units fell 2% to 39.0M. Mailchimp as its own FY27 segment, guided flat to −1%, confirms the weakened bundle. This review marks the channel down; the beat does not mark anything up.
Growth Score
Q4 + FY2026 (year ended July 31, reported Aug 25 AMC) printed revenue $21.448B, +14% YoY from $18.831B — in the $21.34–$21.37B FY26 guide — with Q4 $4.354B, +14%. GAAP operating income $5.884B, +20%; non-GAAP $8.935B, +18%. GAAP EPS $16.46, +20%; non-GAAP EPS $24.27, +20% (FY26 non-GAAP still excludes SBC). GBS $12.9B, +16%; Online Ecosystem $9.9B, +19% (ex-Mailchimp +23%); Consumer $8.6B, +11%; TurboTax $5.3B, +7%; Credit Karma $2.6B, +20%; ProTax $647M, +4%. Big Bets (Assisted Tax, Money, Mid-Market — named on the call, not the exhibit) +34% and 30% of revenue. The FY26 guide printed; it is not still ahead. FY27 is guided $23.279–$23.512B, +9–10%, with GBS +13–14% (Mailchimp carved out as its own segment), Consumer +4–6%, TurboTax +2–3%, Credit Karma +11–13%, Mailchimp (1)%–0%. Beginning FY27, non-GAAP includes SBC ($2,020M / $5.81 per share in the FY27 non-GAAP guide) — do not compare $22.88–$23.12 to FY26 $24.27. Q1 FY27 $4.294–$4.313B, +11%.
Valuation Score
Regular-session close $348.00 on Aug 27 (Yahoo Finance; market cap $95.191B). Aug 26 close $345.88 was the first post-print session; Aug 25 close $357.46 was pre-print (AMC) — do not use. Unchanged ladder $215 / $420 / $575. At $348.00 the stock is 17% below the $420 base and 65% of the way from bear to base — piecewise 74 (live card 76 at ~$331). The FY26 beat and FY27 9–10% guide do not move the ladder. Live valuation will recompute against the tape; this static 74 is the Aug 27 close against the held corridor.
The Ecosystem Moat — Polarised but Durable
Intuit's moat profile is sharply polarised: four AI-resilient moats (proprietary data, regulatory lock-in, transaction embedding, system of record) remain strong, network effects are an intact accountant channel rather than a Metcalfe network, and four of five AI-vulnerable moats stay weakened with businessLogic intact. FY26 printed the guide; Mailchimp's segment split and the DIY unit decline are the filing facts that belong on this card. The channel mark-down is a grading correction against the house bar, not a new competitive event.
- QuickBooks: The Fortress Holds (~60% of FY26 Revenue): GBS printed $12.9B, +16% (ex-Mailchimp +18%); Online Ecosystem $9.9B, +19% (ex-Mailchimp +23%). QuickBooks Online Accounting +23% FY / +20% Q4. The 7M+ SMB system of record (payroll, invoicing, taxes, lending) is unchanged; call color (not exhibit) has 8.9M Online paying customers, +3%, and Intuit Intelligence in-market (paid 4 days faster, 30% less manual work). AI-native challengers (Puzzle, Digits) remain subscale. FY27 GBS (now ex-Mailchimp as a reportable segment) is guided +13–14% — a restated mix, not a moat change.
- TurboTax / Credit Karma: Live Mix vs DIY Units (Consumer 40% of FY26): Consumer printed $8.6B, +11%. TurboTax $5.3B, +7%; TurboTax Live +37% and 53% of TurboTax revenue. U.S. TurboTax units 39.0M vs 39.9M (−2%) — Desktop −7%, Online −2%. Credit Karma $2.6B, +20% (Q4 $743M, +16%). IRS Direct File is still gone; FreeTaxUSA and Wealthsimple Tax still chip DIY. FY27 Consumer +4–6% / TurboTax +2–3% is a deliberate DIY price-value reset (call), not a reason to mark regulatoryLockIn or systemOfRecord down. Investor Day is Sep 17.
- Mailchimp Pullback Weakens the Bundle Thesis: Effective Aug 1, Mailchimp is a separate operating segment; it is a reportable segment beginning FY27, guided $1.256–$1.266B, (1)% to 0%. That is the filing confirmation of the pullback already charged as bundling weakened — Intuit is a QuickBooks-centric platform with supporting consumer products and a standalone Mailchimp P&L, not a four-way bundle. Q4 restructuring $293M (the 17% cut). Status held. Do not mark this up, or further down, because they beat.
Moat Verdict
Intuit is a net beneficiary of AI on balance — its proprietary financial dataset (~100M customers' tax returns, SMB financials, credit profiles) becomes the training-data moat as Intuit Intelligence commoditises interface and business-logic advantages. Four AI-resilient pillars stay strong (data, regulatory, embedding, system of record); network effects were marked down to intact because the accountant channel is not a two-sided network. The Q4/FY2026 beat ($21.448B, +14%) does not repair the soft spot: bundling stays weakened because Mailchimp is now its own FY27 segment guided flat to −1%, and the vulnerable DIY interface is the same pillar behind the −2% TurboTax unit print. Durability now hinges on whether GBS +13–14% and Live mix fund the FY27 9–10% guide while new-to-franchise acquisition (the stated FY27 priority) rebuilds the DIY funnel — Q1 $4.294–$4.313B and Investor Day Sep 17 are the next checkpoints.
82.2 resilient · 45.5 vulnerable · 80/20 = 74.9 · + 1 strength · = 76
Open a moat to read its note.
TurboTax's guided interview is directly challenged by AI agents that offer conversational, zero-UI tax filing — including Intuit's own Intuit Intelligence / filing agents, which abstract the UI that created the switching cost. QuickBooks' interface is stickier but copilots are doing the same abstraction there. FY26 DIY unit decline does not change this status.
QuickBooks' per-SMB configuration depth (chart of accounts, payroll rules, tax integrations, custom invoicing) still requires years of accumulated business logic that AI can't replicate from scratch. IRS Direct File's death removes the biggest government-backed alternative. AI startups haven't cracked enterprise-grade bookkeeping lock-in at scale. No new filing in this print changes that.
Tax forms, IRS regulations, and accounting standards are public — AI navigates them efficiently, commoditising Intuit's simplification value. The moat is proprietary user data, not public-data navigation.
The 17% workforce cut and Q4 $293M restructuring charge are themselves evidence that AI has reduced the talent moat — Intuit is operating with a leaner bench. Intuit Intelligence further lowers the barrier that made TurboTax's guided logic hard to replicate. Status held; the charge printing is not a new pillar fact.
Mailchimp is a separate operating segment effective Aug 1 and a reportable segment in FY27, guided $1.256–$1.266B, (1)% to 0%. That is the filing confirmation of the four-product bundle pullback, not a further status cut — the pillar was already weakened. Intuit is a QuickBooks-centric platform with supporting consumer products and a standalone Mailchimp P&L. Do not mark this up because they beat.
Tax return data, SMB financial records, and credit profiles for ~100M customers (PR) — with tens of thousands of attributes per consumer (call: >70,000 tax and financial attributes) — is the training set behind Intuit Intelligence. AI makes this moat stronger as the data becomes the training advantage. No new filing weakens it.
IRS authorised e-file provider status, state tax agency relationships and payroll-tax compliance are required to operate, and IRS Direct File's elimination removed a government competitor — but H&R Block, TaxAct and many payroll providers hold the same authorisations. Standard certifications are table stakes in this market — they bar small entrants, not the peers this name competes with — so they rate intact; strong is reserved for a barrier few competitors in the market can clear. Re-rated from strong to intact.
CPA-client ecosystem is a real indirect channel: call color (not exhibit) has 150,000+ accountants on Intuit Accountant Suite, and they drove 25% of new IES contracts. Credit Karma adds a consumer marketplace. That is a default-and-referral flywheel, not Metcalfe — the same shape as ServiceNow's implementation-partner network, which the book rates intact. strong on this pillar is Visa's two-sided network. Marked down from strong on a software-sector consistency review; no new filing weakened the channel.
Payroll runs, invoicing, tax filing, expense tracking, B2B payments, and lending are embedded in daily SMB operations. Call color (not exhibit): $2.7T of invoices through QuickBooks per year; online payment volume including Bill Pay >$225B, +30% FY. Intuit Intelligence deepens that embedding by acting inside the workflow. Status held.
QuickBooks is the system of record for 7M+ small business finances; TurboTax holds the authoritative tax history of tens of millions of households (FY26 39.0M U.S. units). Migration risk is prohibitive — you'd lose years of financial history, reconciliation records, and audit trails. The −2% unit print does not make this weakened.
Software at near-zero marginal cost: scale shows up as network effects, data or bundling, which are rated there. No separate unit-cost lead to credit.
TurboTax is the default DIY tax brand and holds price, but IRS Direct File and AI-native preparers test the premium each season.
Moat in 5–10 years
Intuit's moats hold at their current level. The three strong pillars (the tax and SMB financial dataset, payroll and payments embedding, and the QuickBooks and TurboTax records) are not being taken by a named rival, and IRS Direct File's end removed the government alternative. The interface, bundle and talent pillars are already rated weakened for AI filing agents, the TurboTax unit decline and the Mailchimp separation, so no further step is called. AI-native bookkeeping (Puzzle, Digits, Campfire) is the mechanism that could narrow the QuickBooks record, but the keyRisk test of 5% of the SMB base by FY2028 has not been met, so it is a watch item.
No moat trending · 76 holds
Growth Analysis
Growth Drivers
Key Risk
The FY26 guide printed. Next hard test is Q1 FY2027 revenue $4.294–$4.313B (+11%) and FY27 $23.279–$23.512B (9–10%). Falsifiable: Q1 prints below $4.294B, or a subsequent guide (Investor Day Sep 17 or the Q1 print) cuts FY27 below $23.279B / 9%. TurboTax DIY is a print fact — units −2%, and FY27 +2–3% is a deliberate ARPC cut (call) to rebuild the funnel; residual is whether Live mix (53% of TurboTax, +37%) offsets without another year of unit decline. AI-native bookkeeping (Puzzle, Digits, Campfire) capturing 5%+ of the QuickBooks SMB base by end of FY2028 remains unmaterialised — Q4/FY did not produce a new fact that removes it.
Score Derivation
75.0 base − 1.3 trajectory + 4 margin − 5 risk = 73
Base 75 (10–13% CAGR, midpoint 11.5%, baseFromCagr: 70 + ((11.5−8)/7)×10 = 75) − 1.3 trajectory (1 of 3 drivers decelerating: Credit Karma; GBS and TurboTax stable) + 4 margin expanding (FY26 GAAP OM 27.4% vs 26.1% YoY; FY27 GAAP OI +26–27% on +9–10% revenue) − 5 moderate keyRisk (AI-native bookkeeping unmaterialised; TurboTax DIY/unit pressure is a print fact on the driver, residual is whether FY27 +2–3% holds) = 73. Do not bump because they beat. primaryType does not score — the old TAM-expansion author string is retired.
Price Scenarios (12–24 Months)
Price vs Targets
Dashed lines mark the 12–24 month bear, base and bull targets. Daily closes.
Valuation Multiples
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~21× |
| Forward P/E (FY27, GAAP) | ~17× |
| Forward P/E (FY27, non-GAAP) | ~15× |
| PEG Ratio | ~1.0× |
| Price / Sales (FY27) | ~4.1× |
| Price / FCF (FY26) | ~11× |
Post-print tape $348.00 (Aug 27 close, Yahoo) is 17% below the $420 base after the stock sold off from the $357.46 Aug 25 pre-print close. Forward multiple is ~17× company FY27 GAAP EPS $20.12–$20.36 and ~15× new-definition non-GAAP $22.88–$23.12 (SBC now inside). Trailing GAAP ~21× on $16.46. PEG still ~1.0. Yahoo 1y target est $428.61 (quote page; Jefferies $500 was Aug 24, pre-print). The FY26 print and FY27 margin expansion (GAAP OI +26–27%) still justify a premium to slower software; the 9–10% revenue guide is the multiple the tape has to underwrite next, not a restated ladder. Next test is Q1 $4.294–$4.313B and the FY27 9–10% midpoint.
Approximate figures as of August 25, 2026.
Where We Are vs Targets
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AI-native bookkeeping achieves mass SMB adoption, TurboTax unit volumes decline structurally from the FY26 −2%, and a recession spikes QuickBooks churn.
- AI-native bookkeeping startups (Puzzle, Digits, Campfire) capture 10%+ of the QuickBooks SMB segment by end of FY2028, compressing ARPU below $1,500/customer — Q4/FY did not produce a new fact that removes this
- TurboTax unit volumes decline 10%+ annually as free alternatives (FreeTaxUSA, Wealthsimple Tax, Cash App Taxes) erode DIY — the FY26 −2% (39.0M vs 39.9M) accelerating rather than Live mix (53% of TurboTax, +37%) offsetting; FY27 +2–3% then cuts again
- Q1 prints below $4.294B or a subsequent guide cuts FY27 below $23.279B / 9%; recession-driven SMB failures spike QuickBooks churn above 8%, while Mailchimp as a standalone segment (guided (1)%–0%) removes a cross-sell growth vector
Intuit delivers the FY2027 guide ($23.279–$23.512B, +9–10%) with GBS +13–14% and Consumer +4–6%, restructuring plus mix expand GAAP operating income +26–27%, and AI challengers remain subscale through FY2028. Ladder held; do not mark this up because they beat.
- FY27 revenue lands in $23.279–$23.512B; Q1 $4.294–$4.313B; GAAP EPS $20.12–$20.36 / new-definition non-GAAP $22.88–$23.12 (includes $5.81 SBC — do not reprint the old 'non-GAAP above $27' as if the definition did not change)
- GBS (ex-Mailchimp as a segment) holds the +13–14% FY27 guide on QBO Accounting / Online Services; Online Ecosystem stays the mix-shift engine off FY26 +19% / ex-Mailchimp +23%. IR 3-year GBS CAGR 10–15% (call) is the outer path, not a raise of this target
- TurboTax Live mix (53% of TurboTax, +37% FY26) plus the DIY price-value reset hold Consumer at the +4–6% FY27 guide (TurboTax +2–3%) — not the old +8–10% Consumer path, which the guide retired. IRS Direct File stays gone
QuickBooks becomes the AI-powered financial operating system for 12M+ SMBs, Intuit Intelligence compounds engagement, new-to-franchise acquisition re-accelerates company growth back through the mid-teens, and the multiple re-rates.
- International QuickBooks reaches critical mass in UK, Canada, and ANZ, contributing 20%+ of GBS segment growth by FY2028 (FY26 international online +10% constant currency — not yet that path)
- Online payment volume including Bill Pay holds the >$225B FY26 run-rate (call; +30%) and keeps compounding as Money stays a Big Bet — the old '$200B+' doubling line is now behind the print; do not raise this target on that catch-up
- Credit Karma holds the FY27 +11–13% guide ($2.919–$2.973B) and compounds toward $3B+ in FY2028 rather than '20%+ in FY2027' (retired by the guide); GAAP / new-def non-GAAP margins keep expanding as SBC falls toward 8% of revenue by FY2030 (call)
INTU: common questions
Is Intuit stock a buy?
We rate Intuit Accumulate, with a composite score of 76/100: moat 76, growth 73 and valuation 74. The valuation score is struck against our bear, base and bull targets and moves with the price.
What is Intuit's moat?
Intuit scores 76/100 on moat. QuickBooks remains the system of record for 7M+ SMBs (~60% of FY26 revenue). Proprietary data, regulatory lock-in, transaction embedding, and system of record stay strong.
How fast is Intuit expected to grow?
We estimate 10–13% a year over the next three to five years, for a growth score of 73/100.
What is Intuit's price target?
Our base case is $420, with $215 in the bear case and $575 in the bull case.