Combined average of Moat (AI Resilience), Growth, and Valuation scores.
Moat Score
The #2 global farm-equipment maker behind Deere, with Case IH and New Holland dealer networks, CNH Capital financing and Raven's autonomy and guidance technology. The franchise is real but its earnings sit at a deep trough, its technology stack trails Deere's, and construction is a low-margin second business.
CNH's moat is two century-old farm brands and the second-largest ag dealer network in the West, with Raven as its bid to close the technology gap on Deere:
- Case IH and New Holland: Two full-line brands with loyal installed bases, Case IH strong in North American row crops and combines, New Holland in Europe, Brazil and hay and livestock. Dual-branding gives dealer coverage across geographies, but it also means CNH runs two dealer channels where Deere runs one.
- Raven and the Tech Gap: The 2021 Raven acquisition brought autonomy, guidance and application-control technology in-house, and CNH has been building its tech stack since. It still trails Deere's Operations Center and See & Spray on adoption and installed connected fleet, and management does not report a separate precision revenue line.
- Trough Earnings: Agriculture adjusted EBIT margin fell to 5.2% in Q2 2026 from 8.1%, and FY26 adjusted EPS of $0.41–0.46 is a fraction of the ~$1.85 CNH earned at the 2023 peak. Construction (+12% in Q2) helps, but its FY26 margin guide of 1.8–2.3% shows it is not a moat business.
Moat Verdict
CNH's moat is physical and commercial (brands, dealers, financing), so AI adds features rather than eroding it; Raven gives it a credible autonomy and guidance stack, but it is following Deere rather than setting the pace. No pillar clears the strong bar, and with ag margins at 5% the case is a cyclical recovery rather than a moat compounder.
65.0 resilient · 65.0 vulnerable · 80/20 = 65.0 · = 65
Open a moat to read its note.
Case IH AFS and New Holland PLM controls are learned over seasons, giving operator-level switching friction similar to Deere's.
Raven guidance, application-control and autonomy software is vendor-owned, but comparable stacks exist at Deere and AGCO.
CNH's moat does not rest on aggregating public data.
Ag-engineering and dealer-technician talent is real but hired from the same pool as Deere and AGCO (M8).
Tractors, combines, hay tools, precision tech and CNH Capital financing are sold as a full line, but no attach or retention figure is on file (M9).
Connected-machine and FieldOps data are growing but smaller in scale than Deere's connected fleet; scale of customer data is intact (M5).
Emissions and homologation rules bar entrants, but Deere, AGCO and Kubota hold the same approvals (M4).
Dealer density is distribution scale, rated under scaleEconomics, not a two-sided network.
CNH Capital finances a large share of retail and dealer inventory, and parts and service recur on the installed base, but there is no farm-records layer to match Deere's.
CNH's FieldOps is not the default farm-management record; most large growers keep records in Deere Operations Center or third-party platforms.
The #2 global ag full-line maker with the second-largest Western dealer network gives procurement and service scale, but it trails Deere's North American density.
Case IH red and New Holland blue carry real loyalty and resale value, but neither holds price through the trough without incentives.
Combined average of Moat (AI Resilience), Growth, and Valuation scores.
Moat Score
The #2 global farm-equipment maker behind Deere, with Case IH and New Holland dealer networks, CNH Capital financing and Raven's autonomy and guidance technology. The franchise is real but its earnings sit at a deep trough, its technology stack trails Deere's, and construction is a low-margin second business.
Growth Score
Q2 2026 (reported August 3): consolidated revenue $4.8B (+2%), Industrial net sales $4.14B (+3%), adjusted EPS $0.13 (−25% YoY, ahead of a ~$0.10–0.11 consensus). Agriculture net sales $3.28B (+1%, −1% constant currency) with adjusted EBIT margin 5.2% (from 8.1%); lower South American volumes offset price. North American tractors under 140 hp fell 16% industry-wide; EMEA tractors −11%. Construction $866M (+12%). FY26 guide narrowed to the high end: Industrial net sales flat to +2%, ag sales about flat, ag adjusted EBIT margin 5.0–5.5%, adjusted EPS $0.41–0.46, industrial free cash flow $200–400M. Management says dealer inventories have normalised.
Valuation Score
At $11.55 (9 October 2026, intraday) CNH sits about 60% of the way from the $8.50 bear to the $13.50 base. On the $0.41–0.46 FY26 adjusted EPS guide that is ~26×, a trough multiple; on a recovery EPS near $0.70 it is ~16×. Street mean is ~$13.30, in line with the base. The score is the formula at $11.55 on an $8.50 / $13.50 / $17.50 ladder (t = (11.55 − 8.50) / 5 = 0.61 → 75).
The Number-Two Franchise
CNH's moat is two century-old farm brands and the second-largest ag dealer network in the West, with Raven as its bid to close the technology gap on Deere:
- Case IH and New Holland: Two full-line brands with loyal installed bases, Case IH strong in North American row crops and combines, New Holland in Europe, Brazil and hay and livestock. Dual-branding gives dealer coverage across geographies, but it also means CNH runs two dealer channels where Deere runs one.
- Raven and the Tech Gap: The 2021 Raven acquisition brought autonomy, guidance and application-control technology in-house, and CNH has been building its tech stack since. It still trails Deere's Operations Center and See & Spray on adoption and installed connected fleet, and management does not report a separate precision revenue line.
- Trough Earnings: Agriculture adjusted EBIT margin fell to 5.2% in Q2 2026 from 8.1%, and FY26 adjusted EPS of $0.41–0.46 is a fraction of the ~$1.85 CNH earned at the 2023 peak. Construction (+12% in Q2) helps, but its FY26 margin guide of 1.8–2.3% shows it is not a moat business.
Moat Verdict
CNH's moat is physical and commercial (brands, dealers, financing), so AI adds features rather than eroding it; Raven gives it a credible autonomy and guidance stack, but it is following Deere rather than setting the pace. No pillar clears the strong bar, and with ag margins at 5% the case is a cyclical recovery rather than a moat compounder.
65.0 resilient · 65.0 vulnerable · 80/20 = 65.0 · = 65
Open a moat to read its note.
Case IH AFS and New Holland PLM controls are learned over seasons, giving operator-level switching friction similar to Deere's.
Raven guidance, application-control and autonomy software is vendor-owned, but comparable stacks exist at Deere and AGCO.
CNH's moat does not rest on aggregating public data.
Ag-engineering and dealer-technician talent is real but hired from the same pool as Deere and AGCO (M8).
Tractors, combines, hay tools, precision tech and CNH Capital financing are sold as a full line, but no attach or retention figure is on file (M9).
Connected-machine and FieldOps data are growing but smaller in scale than Deere's connected fleet; scale of customer data is intact (M5).
Emissions and homologation rules bar entrants, but Deere, AGCO and Kubota hold the same approvals (M4).
Dealer density is distribution scale, rated under scaleEconomics, not a two-sided network.
CNH Capital finances a large share of retail and dealer inventory, and parts and service recur on the installed base, but there is no farm-records layer to match Deere's.
CNH's FieldOps is not the default farm-management record; most large growers keep records in Deere Operations Center or third-party platforms.
The #2 global ag full-line maker with the second-largest Western dealer network gives procurement and service scale, but it trails Deere's North American density.
Case IH red and New Holland blue carry real loyalty and resale value, but neither holds price through the trough without incentives.
Growth Analysis
Growth Drivers
Key Risk
If commodity prices stay at or below farm breakeven into 2027 and tariffs keep inflating input costs, the ag margin stays near 5% and EPS fails to recover from the $0.41–0.46 trough.
Score Derivation
63.8 base − 4 margin − 5 risk = 55
Base 63.75 (4–7%, 5.5% midpoint) + 0 trajectory (construction accelerating, Brazil decelerating; North American ag and precision held stable) − 4 margin (ag adjusted EBIT 8.1% → 5.2% in Q2, FY26 guide 5.0–5.5%) − 5 farm-income cycle risk (moderate, same step as Deere and AGCO under G4) = 55.
Price Scenarios (12–24 Months)
Price vs Targets
Dashed lines mark the 12–24 month bear, base and bull targets. Daily closes.
Valuation Multiples
| P/E (FY26 guide) | ~26× |
| P/E (recovery EPS ~$0.70) | ~16× |
| Peak EPS reference | ~$1.85 |
| Dividend yield | ~0.8% |
Priced for a recovery that management says has started (dealer inventory normalised, guide raised). The discount to Deere reflects the weaker tech stack and the construction drag.
Approximate figures as of October 2026.
Where We Are vs Targets
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The ag trough extends through 2027, construction cools, and the stock trades at ~12× a $0.70 EPS that keeps slipping out a year.
- Row-crop farm income stays below breakeven and North American large-ag orders fall again in 2027
- Brazilian credit stays tight and South American volumes keep falling
- Construction growth stalls as the North American cycle rolls over
2026 is the trough; EPS recovers toward ~$0.70 by FY27–28 as ag volume and margin normalise, valued at ~19×.
- Ag adjusted EBIT margin recovers from 5–5.5% toward 9–10% on volume
- Construction keeps mid-single-digit growth and margin above 3%
- Raven guidance and autonomy features raise attach rates on new Case IH and New Holland machines
A synchronised ag upcycle drives EPS toward $1.00+ by 2028 and a ~17× multiple as the tech gap with Deere narrows.
- Ag margin returns to the low teens as in 2023
- CNH's precision and autonomy stack wins measurable share of new-machine tech spend
- Buybacks resume at scale on recovered free cash flow