Autodesk, Inc.
Combined average of Moat (AI Resilience), Growth, and Valuation scores.
Moat Score
Autodesk sells the design software most architects, engineers, contractors and many manufacturers use: AutoCAD, Revit and the AEC Collection for buildings and infrastructure, Autodesk Construction Cloud for jobsites, Inventor, Fusion and Vault for manufacturing, and Maya and 3ds Max for media. Its file formats are what project partners exchange, and Revit models carry a building's design record into construction. The protection is real switching cost and a shared file standard, but rivals such as Bentley, Nemetschek, Trimble, Dassault, Siemens and PTC each hold their own segments, and AI design assistants lower the cost of learning a new tool.
Autodesk's edge is being the format project partners exchange and the tool their staff already know, across more industries than any single rival:
- DWG and Revit Are the Exchange Formats: Architects, engineers and contractors on one project have to read each other's files, and in much of the AEC world that means DWG and Revit. A firm that leaves Autodesk still has to exchange with partners who did not. Open formats such as IFC and rival tools from Bentley, Nemetschek and Trimble limit how far this goes, so it is a strong habit rather than a lock.
- From Design Into Construction and Operations: Autodesk Construction Cloud carries the Revit model onto the jobsite, and construction revenue is growing more than 20% a year according to management on the Q2 FY2027 call. The MaintainX acquisition, closed August 3, 2026, extends the record into maintenance of finished assets. Procore and Trimble compete for the jobsite, and each new project can go either way.
- AI Cuts Both Ways: Autodesk Assistant, neural CAD models and Flex tokens let customers pay for AI work by use rather than only by seat, which protects revenue if AI reduces the number of designers. The same assistants make it easier to learn a rival's tool, which wears down the training lock that kept AutoCAD users in place for decades.
Moat Verdict
Autodesk's AI-resilient pillars are all intact: its file formats and project records are widely shared, but rivals hold the same kind of record in each of its markets and open formats limit the lock. The AI-vulnerable pillar is the trained-user habit, which design assistants erode; usage pricing through Flex tokens is Autodesk's hedge against fewer paid seats.
65.0 resilient · 65.0 vulnerable · 80/20 = 65.0 · = 65
Open a moat to read its note.
Generations of architects, drafters and engineers trained on AutoCAD and Revit, and firms hire for those skills. AI assistants, including Autodesk's own, reduce the cost of learning a different tool, so the habit is real but not category-defining.
Customers build their own templates, families, standards and scripts in Revit, AutoCAD and Vault. That is switching cost built from customer configuration rather than vendor logic a rival cannot copy, the same bar as PTC and Procore.
Autodesk's data is customers' design files, rated under proprietaryData. It does not depend on access to a public dataset.
Autodesk's moat rests on its installed base and file formats, not on specialists rivals cannot hire.
The AEC and Product Design & Manufacturing Collections bundle AutoCAD, Revit, Civil 3D, Inventor and others, which raises the cost of dropping one product. Autodesk discloses no attach or failed-unbundler figure, so the bundle is intact.
Autodesk hosts large volumes of customer design and project data that feed its AI models. The data belongs to customers and much of it can be exported through open formats such as IFC, so it is intact rather than strong.
Design software needs no licence or certification that bars rivals. Public BIM mandates specify open exchange formats rather than a vendor, so there is no regulatory moat to rate.
Project partners exchange DWG and Revit files, so each firm on Autodesk makes it more useful for the others on the same project. Open formats and rival tools from Bentley, Nemetschek and Trimble give partners other ways to work together, and no share figure is disclosed, so the network is intact rather than strong.
Drawings, models and construction workflows run through Autodesk daily, and Autodesk Construction Cloud handles RFIs and submittals on jobsites. No money moves through Autodesk, so it is embedded in the workflow rather than on a payment rail.
A Revit model is the design record a building is constructed from, and Vault and Autodesk Construction Cloud keep revision history. But the record is per project, rivals hold the same kind of record elsewhere (Bentley in infrastructure, PTC and Siemens in manufacturing, Procore on jobsites), and downstream systems do not have to defer to it.
Software at near-zero marginal cost. Scale shows up in the file standard and the bundle, which are rated there.
Firms choose Autodesk because their staff and partners use it, which the interface and network pillars rate. The name does not carry a price premium of its own.
Combined average of Moat (AI Resilience), Growth, and Valuation scores.
Moat Score
Autodesk sells the design software most architects, engineers, contractors and many manufacturers use: AutoCAD, Revit and the AEC Collection for buildings and infrastructure, Autodesk Construction Cloud for jobsites, Inventor, Fusion and Vault for manufacturing, and Maya and 3ds Max for media. Its file formats are what project partners exchange, and Revit models carry a building's design record into construction. The protection is real switching cost and a shared file standard, but rivals such as Bentley, Nemetschek, Trimble, Dassault, Siemens and PTC each hold their own segments, and AI design assistants lower the cost of learning a new tool.
Growth Score
Q2 FY2027 (quarter to July 31, 2026) revenue rose 16% to $2.05 billion (+14% constant currency), helped by about 2 points from the new transaction model, under which Autodesk bills customers directly instead of through resellers. AECO revenue grew 17%, AutoCAD 14% and manufacturing 15%. Billings grew 10%, and management raised its organic billings growth outlook to 9–10%. Current RPO grew 12%, while total RPO grew only 2% because Autodesk is ending discounted multi-year deals. Non-GAAP operating margin was 41%, up 2 points, and free cash flow was $561 million (+24%). FY2027 guidance was raised to revenue of $8,295–8,345 million, billings of $8,575–8,650 million, non-GAAP EPS of $12.52–12.60 and free cash flow of $2,725–2,750 million. Autodesk closed the MaintainX acquisition on August 3, 2026, which adds about $60 million of second-half revenue.
Valuation Score
At the $225.58 close on October 5, 2026, Autodesk sits between the $185 bear case and the $290 base case, about 22% below the base. The stock rose about 6% that day after Schneider Electric agreed to buy PTC, but it trades near 18× the FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guide midpoint of about $12.56 and about 17–18× FY2027 free cash flow, below its history, on fears that AI erodes seat-based design software.
The Shared Drawing Standard
Autodesk's edge is being the format project partners exchange and the tool their staff already know, across more industries than any single rival:
- DWG and Revit Are the Exchange Formats: Architects, engineers and contractors on one project have to read each other's files, and in much of the AEC world that means DWG and Revit. A firm that leaves Autodesk still has to exchange with partners who did not. Open formats such as IFC and rival tools from Bentley, Nemetschek and Trimble limit how far this goes, so it is a strong habit rather than a lock.
- From Design Into Construction and Operations: Autodesk Construction Cloud carries the Revit model onto the jobsite, and construction revenue is growing more than 20% a year according to management on the Q2 FY2027 call. The MaintainX acquisition, closed August 3, 2026, extends the record into maintenance of finished assets. Procore and Trimble compete for the jobsite, and each new project can go either way.
- AI Cuts Both Ways: Autodesk Assistant, neural CAD models and Flex tokens let customers pay for AI work by use rather than only by seat, which protects revenue if AI reduces the number of designers. The same assistants make it easier to learn a rival's tool, which wears down the training lock that kept AutoCAD users in place for decades.
Moat Verdict
Autodesk's AI-resilient pillars are all intact: its file formats and project records are widely shared, but rivals hold the same kind of record in each of its markets and open formats limit the lock. The AI-vulnerable pillar is the trained-user habit, which design assistants erode; usage pricing through Flex tokens is Autodesk's hedge against fewer paid seats.
65.0 resilient · 65.0 vulnerable · 80/20 = 65.0 · = 65
Open a moat to read its note.
Generations of architects, drafters and engineers trained on AutoCAD and Revit, and firms hire for those skills. AI assistants, including Autodesk's own, reduce the cost of learning a different tool, so the habit is real but not category-defining.
Customers build their own templates, families, standards and scripts in Revit, AutoCAD and Vault. That is switching cost built from customer configuration rather than vendor logic a rival cannot copy, the same bar as PTC and Procore.
Autodesk's data is customers' design files, rated under proprietaryData. It does not depend on access to a public dataset.
Autodesk's moat rests on its installed base and file formats, not on specialists rivals cannot hire.
The AEC and Product Design & Manufacturing Collections bundle AutoCAD, Revit, Civil 3D, Inventor and others, which raises the cost of dropping one product. Autodesk discloses no attach or failed-unbundler figure, so the bundle is intact.
Autodesk hosts large volumes of customer design and project data that feed its AI models. The data belongs to customers and much of it can be exported through open formats such as IFC, so it is intact rather than strong.
Design software needs no licence or certification that bars rivals. Public BIM mandates specify open exchange formats rather than a vendor, so there is no regulatory moat to rate.
Project partners exchange DWG and Revit files, so each firm on Autodesk makes it more useful for the others on the same project. Open formats and rival tools from Bentley, Nemetschek and Trimble give partners other ways to work together, and no share figure is disclosed, so the network is intact rather than strong.
Drawings, models and construction workflows run through Autodesk daily, and Autodesk Construction Cloud handles RFIs and submittals on jobsites. No money moves through Autodesk, so it is embedded in the workflow rather than on a payment rail.
A Revit model is the design record a building is constructed from, and Vault and Autodesk Construction Cloud keep revision history. But the record is per project, rivals hold the same kind of record elsewhere (Bentley in infrastructure, PTC and Siemens in manufacturing, Procore on jobsites), and downstream systems do not have to defer to it.
Software at near-zero marginal cost. Scale shows up in the file standard and the bundle, which are rated there.
Firms choose Autodesk because their staff and partners use it, which the interface and network pillars rate. The name does not carry a price premium of its own.
Growth Analysis
Growth Drivers
Key Risk
If AI design assistants let firms do the same work with fewer licensed designers, and Flex and other usage revenue does not make up the difference, organic billings growth falls below 8% and current RPO growth drops into single digits through FY2028.
Score Derivation
73.6 base + 4 margin − 5 risk = 73
Base 74 (10.5% midpoint of 9–12%) + 0 trajectory (segments growing at similar rates; no prior-period series in this file to show a turn) + 4 expanding margin (non-GAAP operating margin up 2 points to 41% in Q2 FY2027; GAAP up 4 points) − 5 moderate risk (AI design tools and per-seat pricing) = 73
Price Scenarios (12–24 Months)
Valuation Analysis
The base of $290 is about 20× an estimated $14.40 of FY2028 non-GAAP EPS, which assumes low-teens EPS growth from the FY2027 guide on about 10% organic growth, modest margin gains and buybacks of about half of free cash flow. The $14.40 is an estimate, not consensus. The base sits about 4% below the $302.50 Street mean. Twenty times is below the low-30s multiples of ServiceNow-type platforms and in line with slower-growing design software. The bear at $185 is about 14× a bear-case ~$13.20 of FY2028 EPS, where AI pressure on seats holds organic growth near 7%. The bull at $380 is about 24× an FY2029 EPS near $16, a year further out than the bear and base. $290.
Valuation Multiples
| Forward P/E (FY2027) | ~18× |
| Forward P/E (FY2028E) | ~16× |
| Price / FCF | ~17–18× |
Autodesk trades near 18× this year's earnings and free cash flow, cheap for a business with a 41% non-GAAP operating margin and low-teens growth. The discount is the market's bet that AI design tools shrink the number of paid seats. The case for the base is that usage pricing and the construction and operations businesses grow fast enough to offset that.
Approximate figures as of October 5, 2026.
Where We Are vs Targets
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AI design assistants reduce paid seats, organic growth falls to about 7%, and the market pays about 14× earnings for a shrinking-seat business.
- Organic billings growth falls below 8% in FY2028 as firms renew fewer AutoCAD and Revit seats
- Flex and other usage revenue stays too small to offset seat losses
- About 14× a bear-case ~$13.20 of FY2028 non-GAAP EPS gives $185
Organic growth holds near 10%, margins edge up, buybacks continue, and the multiple recovers to about 20× earnings.
- FY2027 lands within the raised guide and FY2028 organic billings grow about 9–10%
- Construction keeps growing above 15% and MaintainX adds to the operations business
- About 20× an estimated $14.40 of FY2028 non-GAAP EPS supports $290
AI is sold by use on top of seats, growth reaches the low teens, and Autodesk is re-rated as a design-to-operations platform.
- Autodesk Assistant and neural CAD revenue grows into a visible line, adding to seat revenue rather than replacing it
- Construction and operations become a larger share of revenue, lifting organic growth to about 12–13%
- About 24× an FY2029 EPS near $16 supports $380