# SharkNinja Inc. (SN) — InvestMoat Analysis

_Last analyzed: August 28, 2026_
_Asset class: equity · Canonical page: https://investmoat.com/stocks/sn_

## Scores

| Dimension | Score (0–100) |
| --- | --- |
| Moat durability | 41 |
| Growth trajectory | 69 |
| Valuation | 50 |
| **Composite** | **49** |
| **Recommendation** | **Avoid** |

Scores are computed deterministically from this asset’s data by the InvestMoat formula (see https://investmoat.com/llms.txt for methodology). Scores are not directly comparable across asset classes.

## Key stats

- **Ticker:** SN
- **Market Cap:** ~$27.1B

## Moat

Shark and Ninja are real household brands that have taken share by shipping a stream of mid-priced appliances into 40 sub-categories. That is a brand-and-innovation engine, not a repurchase lock-in. Q2 net sales split Shark 45.8% / Ninja 54.2%. The 10-K names Amazon, Costco, and Walmart as the three retailers above 10% of FY25 sales (45.7% combined; largest customer 23.8%). Q2 Customer A was 26.5%. No filing discloses a DTC mix or a consumables/accessories mix, so filters and attachments cannot be scored as a razor-blade moat. Closest covered consumer brands: LULU moat 51, NKE moat 54 — brand without lock-in usually fails the 70 moat bar. SN computes 41.

### The Brand-Without-Lock-In Test

SharkNinja's durability is **brand recognition plus a SKU-innovation cadence**, not switching costs. The live question is whether Shark/Ninja is a repurchase brand or a SKU Amazon, Dyson, Bissell, or private label can swap:

- **Two Brands, Four Disclosed Categories — Not a System of Record:** The 10-Q discloses four product categories and two brands, not a locked-in installed base. Q2: Cleaning $522.0M (29.5%, +4.1%), Cooking and Beverage $499.0M (28.3%, +36.5% on Ninja Luxe Café and Crispi), Food Preparation $458.6M (26.0%, +13.3% on blending), Beauty and Home Environment $285.8M (16.2%, +65.3% on skincare and fans). Shark $807.8M / Ninja $957.6M. A household can replace a Shark vacuum with a Dyson or Bissell, or a Ninja blender with a private-label SKU, without migrating data, recertifying a workflow, or breaking a subscription. That is the opposite of Okta's directory or Salesforce's CRM record.
- **Retail Concentration Is the Distribution Fact, Not a Moat:** FY25 10-K: largest customer 23.8% of net sales; Amazon, Costco, and Walmart each >10% and 45.7% together; 36 US retailers and 180+ globally; Amazon Global Vendor Management participant. Q2 10-Q: Customer A 26.5% of net sales (21.9% of receivables), Customer B 11.5%, Customer C under 10% in the quarter. DTC is named as a channel (websites and social) with no mix disclosed — do not invent one. Retailers that already concentrate a quarter of sales can reallocate shelf or digital placement. Being easy to merchandise is a growth tactic, not lock-in.
- **Consumables and Accessories Are Unmeasured:** Vacuums take filters and brush rolls; blenders and espresso machines take attachments and accessories. The 10-K and 10-Q do not break out consumables, replacement parts, or attachment attach-rate as a percent of net sales. CEO commentary on the Q2 call that the core is 'often underestimated' is color, not a repurchase metric. Until a filing prints a durable aftermarket mix, the repurchase-brand claim stays unproven and cannot raise transactionEmbedding above weakened.

**Moat verdict:** SharkNinja is a fast-growing consumer-appliance brand whose AI-era exposure is mostly marketing and design efficiency, not a threatened or strengthened system of record. The Q2 beat (sales +22.2%, FY26 raised to +16–17%) does not change any tenMoats status and does not retire Amazon/Costco/Walmart concentration or SKU substitutability. Resilient pillars that apply are two weakened boxes (proprietaryData, transactionEmbedding) totaling weight 22 — below the 36 thin-coverage full-slate line, and the raw resilient score is 35 so the floor does not lift it toward intact 65. Vulnerable intact talent and bundling cannot outvote that 80/20. Computed moat 41 vs LULU 51 and NKE 54: those two stretched community or Nike+ into the resilient book; this card will not. Brand without lock-in fails the 70 moat bar. Coverage only — not a hire.

## Growth

Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, reported Aug 5) printed net sales $1,765.5M, +22.2% YoY from $1,444.9M (+21.6% constant currency) — the company called it the fastest pace since 2024. H1 $3,178.3M, +19.1%. Brand: Shark $807.8M (45.8%) / Ninja $957.6M (54.2%). Geography: Domestic $1,141.9M +15.5% (US 61.5% of company sales); International $623.6M +36.6% (UK 14.5%). Categories: Cleaning +4.1% to $522.0M (carpet extractors and cordless); Cooking and Beverage +36.5% to $499.0M (Luxe Café, Crispi); Food Preparation +13.3% to $458.6M (blending); Beauty and Home Environment +65.3% to $285.8M (skincare, fans). GAAP GM 48.7% vs 49.0% (−30 bps); Adj. GM 48.7% vs 49.4% (−70 bps) on US tariffs, FX, and retailer activations. GAAP operating income $179.4M (10.1%) vs $168.6M (11.6%); Adj. operating income $231.5M (13.1%) vs $193.5M (13.4%). GAAP diluted EPS $0.92 vs $0.98; Adj. EPS $1.26 vs $0.97. Adj. EBITDA $264.9M (15.0%) vs $223.4M (15.5%). H1 CFO $275.5M vs −$63.9M; H1 capex $83.1M. Cash $779.8M; term loan principal $718.9M; revolver undrawn ($489.8M available). H1 buybacks 1,008,368 shares / $119.7M under the $750M Feb 11 authorization ($630.3M remaining). FY26 raised to net sales +16.0–17.0% (from +11.5–12.5%), Adj. EPS $6.45–$6.55 (from $6.00–$6.10; ~$0.15 of the $0.45 raise is the expected net tariff-refund benefit), Adj. EBITDA $1,357–$1,369M (~$30M of the raise is the same refund), GAAP ETR ~22–23%, diluted WAS ~142.5M, capex $190–210M. Q3 will recognize a $247.1M CBP-accepted IEEPA duty refund as a reduction of cost of sales; the 2025 half is excluded from FY26 adjusted metrics. Do not mark the franchise up because they beat-and-raised.

- **Revenue CAGR estimate:** 10–16%
- **Primary type:** both
- **Margin trend:** compressing
- **Key risk (moderate):** If FY2026 net sales print below the raised 16.0% floor ($7,423M on FY25 $6,399.2M), or Q3 Cleaning Appliances prints a year-over-year decline, the 'core is durable' claim and the 10–16% CAGR band both break. Residual: Customer A was 26.5% of Q2 sales; Amazon/Costco/Walmart were 45.7% of FY25 — a shelf or digital reset at any of the three is a SKU-swap event this filing cannot retire. ~$0.15 of the $0.45 Adj. EPS raise is the expected net tariff-refund benefit, not operations.
- **Drivers:**
  - International — Q2 $623.6M +36.6% (35.3% of sales) vs Domestic +15.5%. H1 International $1,120.4M +34.3%. FY25 International $2,092.6M +20.8% (32.7% of sales); UK $964M in 2025 after the shift off a distributor model. Q2 UK 14.5% of company sales (accelerating)
  - New Categories (Beauty / Cooking) — Beauty and Home Environment Q2 +65.3% to $285.8M (16.2% of sales); Cooking and Beverage +36.5% to $499.0M on Luxe Café and Crispi. FY25 Beauty $826.3M +45.3%; Cooking $1,816.3M only +5.7% (Luxe Café/Crispi offset air-fryer and outdoor-grill declines). 40th sub-category entered July 2026 (accelerating)
  - Core Cleaning (Shark floorcare) — Q2 +4.1% to $522.0M (carpet extractors and cordless). H1 +10.1% to $1,038.6M. FY25 +6.9% to $2,205.8M; Q4 2025 +3.4%. Largest category, slowest print — not a trend flip to stable (decelerating)
- **Score derivation:** Base 77.14 (10–16% CAGR, midpoint 13.0%, baseFromCagr: 70+((13.0−8)/7)×10 = 77.14) + 1.33 trajectory (2 of 3 accelerating: International and new categories; Core Cleaning decelerating) − 4 compressing margins (Q2 GAAP GM −30 bps, Adj. GM −70 bps, Adj. EBITDA margin 15.0% vs 15.5%; do not paper over with the $247.1M Q3 refund) − 5 moderate keyRisk (Amazon/retailer SKU-swap and holiday miss vs the 16% floor remain unmaterialised; Cleaning deceleration and GM compression are already charged above) = 69.47 → 69. primaryType does not score. Do not bump because they beat.

## Valuation

Regular-session close $191.23 on Friday Aug 28, 2026 (Yahoo Finance chart API + quote page; 4:00:02 p.m. ET; after-hours $193.34 is not the tape). Yahoo market-cap field $27.063B. 10-Q ordinary shares outstanding 140,871,552 as of July 30, 2026 (140,871,552 × $191.23 = $26.94B); do not invent a share count — header uses the Yahoo field, tilde-rounded ~$27.1B. FY26 diluted WAS guided ~142.5M. Ladder $60 / $130 / $210. At $191.23 the stock is 76.5% of the way from base to bull (1.2× bull = $252) — piecewise 50. Forward ~29× on the company's $6.45–$6.55 FY26 Adj. EPS guide (~30× on ~$6.35 ex the ~$0.15 refund slice). The Aug 5 beat-and-raise does not move the ladder.

| Multiple | Value | Note |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~39× | Yahoo TTM EPS $4.90 / P/E 39.03 at $191.23. FY25 GAAP diluted EPS $4.94; Q2 $0.92; H1 $1.77. Matches the quote-page field |
| Forward P/E (FY26, adjusted) | ~29× | company FY26 Adj. EPS $6.45–$6.55 at $191.23 (midpoint $6.50). ~$0.15 of the $0.45 raise vs the prior $6.00–$6.10 guide is the expected net tariff-refund benefit — underlying ~$6.35 is ~30× |
| PEG Ratio | ~2.3× | fwd P/E ~29× ÷ 13% revenue CAGR (cagrEstimate midpoint). Do not invent an EPS CAGR from one guide raise |
| Price / Sales (FY26) | ~3.6× | Yahoo $27.063B ÷ ~$7,455M FY26 revenue midpoint ($6,399.2M × 16.5%) |
| FY25 FCF / H1 FCF | $474M / $184M | FY25 CFO $634.1M − investing $159.8M = $474.4M (FY25 8-K cash-flow table). H1 2026 CFO $275.5M − investing $91.3M = $184.2M (Q2 10-Q). Yahoo quote-page levered FCF TTM $638.67M is a third-party field — not used as the ladder. Capex guided $190–210M. Working-capital heavy (inventory $1,143.6M); earnings, not FCF, carry the corridor |

Post-print tape $191.23 (Aug 28 close, Yahoo) sits at a 52-week high band of $83.12–$194.53 after the Aug 5 raise. Forward multiple is ~29× on the company's own $6.45–$6.55 FY26 Adj. EPS guide and ~3.6× FY26 sales — a growth-brand multiple for a household-appliance company whose resilient moats are two weakened pillars. Yahoo 1y target est. $209.56 (quote page) is essentially this card's $210 bull. Net cash is thin: cash $779.8M vs term-loan principal $718.9M as of June 30. The innovation cadence and the 16–17% guide can support a premium to slower appliance peers; the margin of safety versus the $130 base is gone. Next test is the FY26 16% sales floor and Q3 Cleaning, not a restated ladder. _(as of August 28, 2026)_

## Price scenarios

### Bear — $60

Innovation cadence slips, Cleaning stays low-single-digit then declines, Amazon/Costco/Walmart reallocate shelf, and the tariff refund proves one-time — growth fades to 4–6% and the multiple compresses to ~12× on a ~$5 trough Adj. EPS.

- FY2026 net sales print below the $7,423M / 16.0% floor, or Q3 Cleaning Appliances prints a YoY decline after Q2 +4.1% and Q4 2025 +3.4%
- Customer A (26.5% of Q2 sales) or the Amazon/Costco/Walmart group (45.7% of FY25) cuts placement; private-label or Dyson/Bissell/Tineco take the floorcare and blending slots the 10-K treats as leadership
- Gross margin compresses through the high-40s on successor tariffs (guide assumes 10% Indonesia/Malaysia/Cambodia and 12.5% China/Vietnam/Thailand for the rest of 2026) and retailer activations; the $247.1M IEEPA refund is Q3 COS, not a run-rate
- Multiple compresses to ~12× on ~$5.00 trough Adj. EPS → ~$60/share

### Base — $130

SharkNinja delivers the raised FY2026 guide (sales +16–17%, Adj. EPS $6.45–$6.55 including ~$0.15 refund), then fades toward the 10–16% CAGR band as Cleaning stays low-to-mid single digits and International/Beauty do the lifting — rewarded with a ~20× forward earnings multiple, not a software multiple. Ladder is the execution case; do not mark it up because they beat.

- FY2026 net sales land in the $7,423–$7,487M guide; Cleaning stays positive but mid-single-digit; International holds a 20%+ rate as mix is already 35%
- Adj. EPS prints in the $6.45–$6.55 range; the ~$0.15 refund slice is disclosed, not silently treated as operations. Adj. EBITDA $1,357–$1,369M with ~$30M refund
- Gross margin holds the high-40s after the Q3 refund print; FY26 capex $190–210M; $630.3M remaining on the $750M repurchase authorization is dry powder, not a thesis
- 20× on FY26 midpoint Adj. EPS $6.50 maps to ~$130. Do not mark the target up because the tape is $191

### Bull — $210

International and new categories keep company growth in the mid-teens through FY2028, Cleaning stabilizes, and the stock holds a ~24× multiple on FY2028 Adj. EPS around $8.75 as the market treats the innovation engine as a durable compounder. Tape already near $210 is not a reason to rewrite this FY2028 scenario.

- International scales past 40% of sales with the UK-direct playbook repeating in more markets; Beauty and Home Environment stays a mid-teens-or-better company-level mix rather than a one-year SKU spike
- A filing finally prints a material, recurring aftermarket/consumables mix — the repurchase-brand claim that this card will not assume
- Cleaning returns to high-single-digit growth on carpet extractors / cordless without giving back share to Dyson/Bissell/private label
- FY2028 Adj. EPS around $8.75 at 24× → ~$210/share. Yahoo 1y target est. $209.56 is this case, not a new fact

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