# Nike (NKE) — InvestMoat Analysis

_Last analyzed: September 22, 2026_
_Asset class: equity · Canonical page: https://investmoat.com/stocks/nke_

## Scores

| Dimension | Score (0–100) |
| --- | --- |
| Moat durability | 57 |
| Growth trajectory | 46 |
| Valuation | 77 |
| **Composite** | **56** |

Scores are computed deterministically from this asset’s data by the InvestMoat formula (see https://investmoat.com/llms.txt for methodology). Scores are not directly comparable across asset classes.

## Key stats

- **Ticker:** NKE
- **Market Cap:** ~$53.5B

## Moat

The moat is still the athlete roster, the wholesale doors, and a product engine that is working in running and not yet in sportswear. FY26 kept revenue flat and did not deliver the inflection the May write-up was waiting on.

### The Iconic Brand Moat

Nike's moat is **brand + sports marketing scale + product cadence** — intact as a franchise, unproven as a turnaround:

- **Brand and Athlete Marketing Footprint:** The World Cup is the cleanest recent proof that the marketing machine still works. National-team kits had sold 2.5× the World Cup 2022 pace by the start of the tournament, the new Mercurial was the fastest 24-hour cleated launch in Nike Direct's history, and the football films had 1.5 billion views in the first week. That is brand reach. It is not yet a company growth rate: global football and running are carrying performance, while sportswear and Jordan streetwear — about half of revenue — are still in decline.
- **Wholesale Rebuild, Direct Shrink:** Hill's reversal of the DTC over-pivot is showing up in the channel mix and not in the total. FY26 wholesale was $27.5B, +6% reported and +4% currency-neutral, with North America wholesale +10% in Q4 and a positive Foot Locker comp for the first time in four years. NIKE Direct was $17.7B, −6% reported and −8% currency-neutral, and Q4 Direct was −9% currency-neutral. The traffic flywheel is being rebuilt through partners. Nike-owned digital and stores are still shrinking.
- **Running Works; Sportswear Does Not:** Running has now put up five consecutive double-digit quarters and added about $1B over that stretch. In FY26 Nike gained 5 points of statement-footwear running share in North America and Western Europe, more than any other top-five brand, and classic footwear franchises were cut by more than $2B. The other half of the business did not follow. Sportswear was down double digits in Q4, Jordan Brand finished the year at $7.0B (−3% reported, −5% currency-neutral), and management expects both sportswear and Jordan streetwear to stay negative through FY27, with improvement only in the back half. Spring 2027 is the first season of sport-offense product taken from brief to market. That is the swing factor, and it is not in the FY26 numbers.

**Moat verdict:** AI does not move this moat. Marketing gets cheaper to produce, and design tools get faster; neither replaces the athlete contracts or the wholesale doors. The FY26 print split the franchise in two: running and global football are working, sportswear and Greater China are not, and total revenue was flat. At $36 the stock is priced for that stall — about 21× a ~$1.70 FY27 earnings year — not for the $4 recovery the prior file assumed.

### Top competitors

- **Adidas (ADS.DE):** The largest global sportswear rival.
- **On Holding (ONON):** Premium running shoes taking share.
- **[Lululemon (LULU)](https://investmoat.com/stocks/lulu):** Premium athletic apparel.

## Growth

FY26 revenue was $46.4B, flat reported and −2% currency-neutral. Q4 was $11.0B, −1% reported and −4% currency-neutral, with North America +3%, EMEA −6%, and Greater China −12% reported / −17% currency-neutral. Q1 FY27 is guided down low-to-mid single digits, with no FX help, and the three-quarter window through Q2 FY27 was revised from down low-single digits to down low-to-mid single digits. Earnings over that window are still described as flattish, excluding the tariff recovery. Q1 reports October 1. Investor Day is November 16–17. CFO Matthew Friend is leaving; the June 30 call did not name a successor.

- **Revenue CAGR estimate:** 1-4%
- **Primary type:** market share
- **Margin trend:** compressing
- **Key risk (moderate):** If Greater China stays at the Q4 pace (−12% reported / −17% currency-neutral) through FY27, and sportswear plus Jordan streetwear are still negative in the back half, the 1-4% blend breaks. FY28 earnings then stay near the street's ~$1.70 FY27 EPS instead of rebuilding toward the low $2s.
- **Drivers:**
  - Running — Double-digit for five straight quarters, about +$1B over that stretch; performance category grew mid-single digits in FY26 (accelerating)
  - Greater China — FY26 $5.8B, −11% reported / −13% currency-neutral; Q4 −12% / −17%. Near-term trends guided in line with recent performance (decelerating)
  - Sportswear and Jordan — About half of revenue. Sportswear down double digits in Q4; Jordan Brand FY26 $7.0B, −3% reported / −5% currency-neutral. Guided negative through FY27 (decelerating)
- **Score derivation:** Base 56 (2.5% midpoint of 1-4%) − 1.3 trajectory (running accelerating; China and sportswear/Jordan decelerating) − 4 compressing margin (FY gross margin 40.8% ex the IEEPA recovery) − 5 moderate residual risk = 46

## Valuation

At ~$36.10 Nike is sitting on a 52-week low ($35.35; the high was $76.97) and about 18% under the $44 base. The May file had this at ~$42 and ~13× a ~$3.30 FY26 EPS, with FY27 earnings recovering through $4. FY26 diluted EPS was $2.10, and $1.58 once the $0.52 Q4 tariff-recovery benefit is removed. On a street FY27 EPS near $1.71 the stock is about 21× — a discount to the pre-reset multiple, not a 10× failed-brand stub.

| Multiple | Value | Note |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~17× | $36.10 on FY26 diluted EPS of $2.10 |
| Trailing P/E (ex-tariff) | ~23× | FY26 EPS $1.58 excluding the $0.52 IEEPA recovery |
| Forward P/E (FY27) | ~21× | Street FY27 EPS near $1.71; company did not guide a full-year EPS number |
| Price / Sales (FY26) | ~1.2× | ~$53.5B market cap on $46.4B revenue |
| Dividend Yield | ~4.5% | $0.41 quarterly. FY26 dividends were $2.4B; on the $1.58 ex-tariff EPS the dividend is not covered |

Strip the one-time tariff recovery and Nike is a ~23× stock on trough earnings, with a dividend the clean number does not cover. The discount versus the old high-20s multiple is real. It is a discount for a revenue line that is still guided down, not a free option on a $4 earnings year. _(as of September 22, 2026)_

## Price scenarios

### Bear — $27

The Q1 guide proves too high, China stays double-digit negative, and FY28 EPS never leaves the mid-$1s. About 16× that earnings rate is $27 — a quarter below the current price, not a balance-sheet break. Cash and short-term investments were $9.0B at May 31.

- FY27 revenue finishes down mid-single digits rather than the low end of the Q1 guide
- Greater China does not stabilize; the full-year decline stays double-digit
- Q1 gross-margin expansion does not show up, and ex-tariff margin stays near 40%

### Base — $44

Twelve-to-twenty-four month fair value if the reset holds: Q1 lands inside a low-to-mid-single-digit decline, sportswear improves in the back half as guided, and FY28 EPS around $2.20 supports about 20×. That is $44. It is not the old $65 case, which needed FY27 EPS of $4.20.

- Q1 revenue lands inside the down low-to-mid-single-digit guide
- Running and global football keep performance growing, and wholesale stays positive
- FY28 EPS near $2.20 at ~20×, with the $0.41 dividend held

### Bull — $68

The spring 2027 sport-offense cycle and the World Cup halo pull sportswear back to growth, China stabilizes after the inventory cleanup, and FY28 EPS near $2.80 gets a mid-20s multiple. That is a re-rating on evidence, not a return to the $95 case.

- Sportswear and Jordan streetwear turn positive in H2 FY27, ahead of the 'improvement, still negative' guide
- Greater China returns to growth once the marketplace cleanup is done
- FY28 EPS near $2.80 and the multiple moves back toward the mid-20s

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