# Moog Inc. (MOG.A) — InvestMoat Analysis _Last analyzed: September 28, 2026_ _Asset class: equity · Canonical page: https://investmoat.com/stocks/mog_ ## Scores | Dimension | Score (0–100) | | --- | --- | | Moat durability | 73 | | Growth trajectory | 72 | | Valuation | 74 | | **Composite** | **74** | Scores are computed deterministically from this asset’s data by the InvestMoat formula (see https://investmoat.com/llms.txt for methodology). Scores are not directly comparable across asset classes. ## Key stats - **Ticker:** MOG.A - **Market Cap:** ~$12B ## Moat Moog designs the actuators and control systems that move flight surfaces, steer missiles and point spacecraft. Once its hardware is qualified on an aircraft or missile, replacing it means requalifying a flight-critical system, so Moog tends to supply that platform for its whole production run and then its aftermarket. The weakness is price: margins around 14% show a supplier that wins long positions through competitive bids against Parker and Collins, not one that can reprice its installed base the way TransDigm does. ### Qualified for the Life of the Platform Moog's moat is **flight-critical incumbency**: it is very hard to remove once qualified, but the positions are won in competitive bids and priced accordingly: - **Qualification Is the Barrier:** Primary flight-control actuation on the F-35, the Boeing 787 and the V-22, and the flight controls on the Army's new MV-75 tiltrotor, are certified as part of the aircraft. A rival would have to repeat the qualification and flight testing, and no airframer or program office takes that risk mid-program. Missile steering controls and spacecraft actuation work the same way, which is why Space and Defense sales rose 17% to $336 million in Q3 FY2026. - **Aftermarket Follows the Installed Base:** Every aircraft that carries Moog actuators needs repairs and spares from Moog or its licensed shops for decades. Military Aircraft sales rose 9% in Q3 FY2026 on strong aftermarket activity, and Commercial Aircraft rose 17% on production volume, pricing and spares. That annuity is real, but Moog does not own most of its content outright as a sole-source proprietary part the way TransDigm does, so its aftermarket pricing is closer to cost-plus than monopoly. - **Bid Economics Cap the Returns:** New platforms are won in competitions against Parker Aerospace, Collins Aerospace and Woodward, often on fixed-price development contracts that Moog has had to write down in the past. The FY2026 adjusted operating margin guide of 14.1% includes about 270 basis points of one-off tariff refunds, so the underlying margin is nearer 11–12%. Management's simplification programme is lifting that, but the moat protects volume more than price. **Moat verdict:** Moog's moat is physical and regulatory: flight-critical hardware qualified on long-lived platforms, which AI cannot copy and which grows as defense and space budgets rise. AI is a modest tailwind through data-centre cooling pumps, and the main weakness is not disruption but pricing power, since Moog wins new positions in competitive bids rather than setting prices on an installed monopoly. ### Top competitors - **Parker Hannifin (PH):** Parker Aerospace bids against Moog for flight-control and hydraulic actuation packages. - **RTX (RTX):** Collins Aerospace supplies actuation and flight controls on the same airframes. - **Woodward (WWD):** Actuation and motion control for aircraft and industrial customers. ## Growth Moog is growing faster than it has in a decade. Q3 FY2026 sales rose 15% to a record $1.1 billion, the 12-month backlog rose 23% to $3.3 billion, and full-year guidance was raised to $4.4 billion of sales and $11.65 of adjusted EPS. Defense is the engine, with missile controls, space vehicles and the MV-75 ramp, while data-centre cooling pumps have turned the Industrial segment into a grower. Commercial aircraft growth depends on Boeing and Airbus production rates. - **Revenue CAGR estimate:** 7-10% - **Primary type:** both - **Margin trend:** expanding - **Key risk (moderate):** Moog carries fixed-price development work on new platforms such as the MV-75, where cost overruns land on its margin, and its commercial business depends on Boeing and Airbus hitting their production ramps. The FY2026 margin also includes about 270 basis points of one-off tariff refunds that will not repeat, so FY2027 earnings growth has a tougher comparison than the sales line suggests. - **Drivers:** - Space and Defense — Q3 FY2026 sales +17% to $336M on missile controls and space vehicles; 12-month backlog +23% company-wide (accelerating) - Commercial Aircraft — Q3 FY2026 sales +17% to $254M on higher volume and pricing across major production programs plus aftermarket; tied to airframer build rates (stable) - Industrial (data-centre cooling) — Q3 FY2026 sales +18% to $282M, led by data-centre cooling pumps plus medical and energy products (accelerating) - **Score derivation:** Base 70.7 (8.5% midpoint of 7–10%) + 2.7 trajectory (defense and industrial accelerating on backlog and data-centre pumps; commercial aircraft stable at airframer build rates) + 4 expanding margin (adjusted operating margin up 80 basis points in the underlying business, before one-off tariff refunds) − 5 moderate risk (fixed-price development programs and dependence on Boeing and Airbus build rates) = 72 ## Valuation At the $387.80 close on September 25, 2026 the stock sits between a $290 bear case and a $440 base case, about 13% below the base. That is about 33 times FY2026 adjusted EPS of $11.65, which already flatters earnings with one-off tariff refunds, so the stock is priced as a defense grower rather than a cyclical supplier. It is down from a 52-week high near $449 after doubling from its low near $194. **Fair value:** $440 — Moog trades at about 33 times FY2026 adjusted EPS, a premium to its own history and close to larger aerospace suppliers with higher margins. The base case assumes FY2027 adjusted EPS of about $12.5–13 after the tariff refunds roll off, and a multiple around 34–35 times as defense backlog converts. Net leverage of about 1.8 times is conservative for the sector. ## Price scenarios ### Bear — $290 The tariff-refund boost fades, a fixed-price program takes a charge, and the multiple compresses toward the mid-20s as defense growth normalises. - FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance comes in near or below FY2026's $11.65 once the one-off tariff refunds drop out - A cost overrun on a fixed-price development program such as MV-75 flight controls forces a charge and reopens the question of Moog's bid discipline - Boeing 787 or 737 production slips again and Commercial Aircraft growth falls back to low single digits ### Base — $440 The 12-month backlog converts on schedule, underlying margins keep rising after the refunds roll off, and the market keeps paying a defense-grower multiple. - FY2027 sales grow high single digits from the $4.4B FY2026 base, with Space and Defense still growing double digits - Adjusted operating margin excluding tariff refunds rises toward 12.5% as the simplification programme and pricing work through - Free-cash-flow conversion improves from about 70% toward the 90–100% target as working capital normalises ### Bull — $520 Missile and space demand keeps accelerating, data-centre cooling becomes a large industrial franchise, and margins reach the mid-teens without one-offs. - The 12-month backlog grows above 20% again as missile production ramps for munitions restocking and new space programs - Industrial data-centre cooling pump sales keep growing at a double-digit pace and Moog wins new hyperscaler cooling programs - Underlying adjusted operating margin reaches 14% or more without tariff refunds, supporting EPS growth in the high teens --- InvestMoat is a research and education framework. Nothing here is financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.