# Intuit Inc. (INTU) — InvestMoat Analysis

_Last analyzed: September 10, 2026_
_Asset class: equity · Canonical page: https://investmoat.com/stocks/intuit_

## Scores

| Dimension | Score (0–100) |
| --- | --- |
| Moat durability | 84 |
| Growth trajectory | 73 |
| Valuation | 74 |
| **Composite** | **78** |

Scores are computed deterministically from this asset’s data by the InvestMoat formula (see https://investmoat.com/llms.txt for methodology). Scores are not directly comparable across asset classes.

## Key stats

- **Ticker:** INTU
- **Market Cap:** ~$95B

## Moat

QuickBooks remains the system of record for 7M+ SMBs (~60% of FY26 revenue). Proprietary data, regulatory lock-in, transaction embedding, and system of record stay strong. Network effects are an accountant channel, not a two-sided network — marked intact, same bar as ServiceNow's partner ecosystem. TurboTax printed +7% with Live +37% (53% of TurboTax) while U.S. units fell 2% to 39.0M. Mailchimp as its own FY27 segment, guided flat to −1%, confirms the weakened bundle. This review marks the channel down; the beat does not mark anything up.

### The Ecosystem Moat — Polarised but Durable

Intuit's moat profile is **sharply polarised**: four AI-resilient moats (proprietary data, regulatory lock-in, transaction embedding, system of record) remain strong, network effects are an intact accountant channel rather than a Metcalfe network, and four of five AI-vulnerable moats stay weakened with businessLogic intact. FY26 printed the guide; Mailchimp's segment split and the DIY unit decline are the filing facts that belong on this card. The channel mark-down is a grading correction against the house bar, not a new competitive event.

- **QuickBooks: The Fortress Holds (~60% of FY26 Revenue):** GBS printed $12.9B, +16% (ex-Mailchimp +18%); Online Ecosystem $9.9B, +19% (ex-Mailchimp +23%). QuickBooks Online Accounting +23% FY / +20% Q4. The 7M+ SMB system of record (payroll, invoicing, taxes, lending) is unchanged; call color (not exhibit) has 8.9M Online paying customers, +3%, and Intuit Intelligence in-market (paid 4 days faster, 30% less manual work). AI-native challengers (Puzzle, Digits) remain subscale. FY27 GBS (now ex-Mailchimp as a reportable segment) is guided +13–14% — a restated mix, not a moat change.
- **TurboTax / Credit Karma: Live Mix vs DIY Units (Consumer 40% of FY26):** Consumer printed $8.6B, +11%. TurboTax $5.3B, +7%; TurboTax Live +37% and 53% of TurboTax revenue. U.S. TurboTax units 39.0M vs 39.9M (−2%) — Desktop −7%, Online −2%. Credit Karma $2.6B, +20% (Q4 $743M, +16%). IRS Direct File is still gone; FreeTaxUSA and Wealthsimple Tax still chip DIY. FY27 Consumer +4–6% / TurboTax +2–3% is a deliberate DIY price-value reset (call), not a reason to mark regulatoryLockIn or systemOfRecord down. Investor Day is Sep 17.
- **Mailchimp Pullback Weakens the Bundle Thesis:** Effective Aug 1, Mailchimp is a separate operating segment; it is a reportable segment beginning FY27, guided $1.256–$1.266B, (1)% to 0%. That is the filing confirmation of the pullback already charged as bundling weakened — Intuit is a QuickBooks-centric platform with supporting consumer products and a standalone Mailchimp P&L, not a four-way bundle. Q4 restructuring $293M (the 17% cut). Status held. Do not mark this up, or further down, because they beat.

**Moat verdict:** Intuit is a net beneficiary of AI on balance — its proprietary financial dataset (~100M customers' tax returns, SMB financials, credit profiles) becomes the training-data moat as Intuit Intelligence commoditises interface and business-logic advantages. Four AI-resilient pillars stay strong (data, regulatory, embedding, system of record); network effects were marked down to intact because the accountant channel is not a two-sided network. The Q4/FY2026 beat ($21.448B, +14%) does not repair the soft spot: bundling stays weakened because Mailchimp is now its own FY27 segment guided flat to −1%, and the vulnerable DIY interface is the same pillar behind the −2% TurboTax unit print. Durability now hinges on whether GBS +13–14% and Live mix fund the FY27 9–10% guide while new-to-franchise acquisition (the stated FY27 priority) rebuilds the DIY funnel — Q1 $4.294–$4.313B and Investor Day Sep 17 are the next checkpoints.

## Growth

Q4 + FY2026 (year ended July 31, reported Aug 25 AMC) printed revenue $21.448B, +14% YoY from $18.831B — in the $21.34–$21.37B FY26 guide — with Q4 $4.354B, +14%. GAAP operating income $5.884B, +20%; non-GAAP $8.935B, +18%. GAAP EPS $16.46, +20%; non-GAAP EPS $24.27, +20% (FY26 non-GAAP still excludes SBC). GBS $12.9B, +16%; Online Ecosystem $9.9B, +19% (ex-Mailchimp +23%); Consumer $8.6B, +11%; TurboTax $5.3B, +7%; Credit Karma $2.6B, +20%; ProTax $647M, +4%. Big Bets (Assisted Tax, Money, Mid-Market — named on the call, not the exhibit) +34% and 30% of revenue. The FY26 guide printed; it is not still ahead. FY27 is guided $23.279–$23.512B, +9–10%, with GBS +13–14% (Mailchimp carved out as its own segment), Consumer +4–6%, TurboTax +2–3%, Credit Karma +11–13%, Mailchimp (1)%–0%. Beginning FY27, non-GAAP includes SBC ($2,020M / $5.81 per share in the FY27 non-GAAP guide) — do not compare $22.88–$23.12 to FY26 $24.27. Q1 FY27 $4.294–$4.313B, +11%.

- **Revenue CAGR estimate:** 10–13%
- **Primary type:** both
- **Margin trend:** expanding
- **Key risk (moderate):** The FY26 guide printed. Next hard test is Q1 FY2027 revenue $4.294–$4.313B (+11%) and FY27 $23.279–$23.512B (9–10%). Falsifiable: Q1 prints below $4.294B, or a subsequent guide (Investor Day Sep 17 or the Q1 print) cuts FY27 below $23.279B / 9%. TurboTax DIY is a print fact — units −2%, and FY27 +2–3% is a deliberate ARPC cut (call) to rebuild the funnel; residual is whether Live mix (53% of TurboTax, +37%) offsets without another year of unit decline. AI-native bookkeeping (Puzzle, Digits, Campfire) capturing 5%+ of the QuickBooks SMB base by end of FY2028 remains unmaterialised — Q4/FY did not produce a new fact that removes it.
- **Drivers:**
  - Global Business Solutions (QuickBooks) — FY26 GBS $12.9B, +16% (ex-Mailchimp +18%); Online Ecosystem $9.9B, +19% (ex-Mailchimp +23%). QBO Accounting +23% FY / +20% Q4. Q4 GBS $3.4B, +14%; Online $2.6B, +17% (ex-Mailchimp +20%). FY27 GBS (ex-Mailchimp as a segment) +13–14% (stable)
  - Credit Karma — FY26 $2.6B, +20% (made the ~+19% FY guide). Q4 $743M, +16% on personal loans, auto insurance, and credit cards. FY27 guided +11–13% — still decelerating from Q2's +23% (decelerating)
  - Consumer (TurboTax) — FY26 TurboTax $5.3B, +7% (in-line with the ~+7% guide); Live +37% and 53% of TurboTax. U.S. units 39.0M vs 39.9M (−2%). Consumer $8.6B, +11%. FY27 TurboTax +2–3% / Consumer +4–6% is the next test, not a restatement of the printed +7% (stable)
- **Score derivation:** Base 75 (10–13% CAGR, midpoint 11.5%, baseFromCagr: 70 + ((11.5−8)/7)×10 = 75) − 1.3 trajectory (1 of 3 drivers decelerating: Credit Karma; GBS and TurboTax stable) + 4 margin expanding (FY26 GAAP OM 27.4% vs 26.1% YoY; FY27 GAAP OI +26–27% on +9–10% revenue) − 5 moderate keyRisk (AI-native bookkeeping unmaterialised; TurboTax DIY/unit pressure is a print fact on the driver, residual is whether FY27 +2–3% holds) = 73. Do not bump because they beat. primaryType does not score — the old TAM-expansion author string is retired.

## Valuation

Regular-session close $348.00 on Aug 27 (Yahoo Finance; market cap $95.191B). Aug 26 close $345.88 was the first post-print session; Aug 25 close $357.46 was pre-print (AMC) — do not use. Unchanged ladder $215 / $420 / $575. At $348.00 the stock is 17% below the $420 base and 65% of the way from bear to base — piecewise 74 (live card 76 at ~$331). The FY26 beat and FY27 9–10% guide do not move the ladder. Live valuation will recompute against the tape; this static 74 is the Aug 27 close against the held corridor.

| Multiple | Value | Note |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~21× | FY26 GAAP EPS $16.46 at $348; Yahoo TTM 21.14×. Q4 restructuring $293M still in the mix |
| Forward P/E (FY27, GAAP) | ~17× | company FY27 GAAP EPS $20.12–$20.36 at $348. Cleaner than non-GAAP after the SBC definition change |
| Forward P/E (FY27, non-GAAP) | ~15× | new-definition non-GAAP $22.88–$23.12, which includes $5.81 of SBC. Not comparable to FY26 non-GAAP $24.27 (ex-SBC). Retires the Aug 10 ~$22 NTM / ~14× on FY26 $23.82 |
| PEG Ratio | ~1.0× | new-def fwd P/E ~15× ÷ ~15% EPS CAGR (cagrEstimate midpoint is revenue; GAAP EPS +22–24% in FY27 then tracks high-teens nGAAP per the call). Do not invent an EPS CAGR from one guide |
| Price / Sales (FY27) | ~4.1× | ~$95B ÷ $23.40B FY27 revenue midpoint ($23.279–$23.512B) |
| Price / FCF (FY26) | ~11× | exhibit OCF $8.838B − capex $221M = ~$8.6B. Do not reprint the old ~$7B / ~13× as if this print did not restate FY FCF. Yahoo levered FCF $6.44B is a different definition |

Post-print tape $348.00 (Aug 27 close, Yahoo) is 17% below the $420 base after the stock sold off from the $357.46 Aug 25 pre-print close. Forward multiple is ~17× company FY27 GAAP EPS $20.12–$20.36 and ~15× new-definition non-GAAP $22.88–$23.12 (SBC now inside). Trailing GAAP ~21× on $16.46. PEG still ~1.0. Yahoo 1y target est $428.61 (quote page; Jefferies $500 was Aug 24, pre-print). The FY26 print and FY27 margin expansion (GAAP OI +26–27%) still justify a premium to slower software; the 9–10% revenue guide is the multiple the tape has to underwrite next, not a restated ladder. Next test is Q1 $4.294–$4.313B and the FY27 9–10% midpoint. _(as of August 25, 2026)_

## Price scenarios

### Bear — $215

AI-native bookkeeping achieves mass SMB adoption, TurboTax unit volumes decline structurally from the FY26 −2%, and a recession spikes QuickBooks churn.

- AI-native bookkeeping startups (Puzzle, Digits, Campfire) capture 10%+ of the QuickBooks SMB segment by end of FY2028, compressing ARPU below $1,500/customer — Q4/FY did not produce a new fact that removes this
- TurboTax unit volumes decline 10%+ annually as free alternatives (FreeTaxUSA, Wealthsimple Tax, Cash App Taxes) erode DIY — the FY26 −2% (39.0M vs 39.9M) accelerating rather than Live mix (53% of TurboTax, +37%) offsetting; FY27 +2–3% then cuts again
- Q1 prints below $4.294B or a subsequent guide cuts FY27 below $23.279B / 9%; recession-driven SMB failures spike QuickBooks churn above 8%, while Mailchimp as a standalone segment (guided (1)%–0%) removes a cross-sell growth vector

### Base — $420

Intuit delivers the FY2027 guide ($23.279–$23.512B, +9–10%) with GBS +13–14% and Consumer +4–6%, restructuring plus mix expand GAAP operating income +26–27%, and AI challengers remain subscale through FY2028. Ladder held; do not mark this up because they beat.

- FY27 revenue lands in $23.279–$23.512B; Q1 $4.294–$4.313B; GAAP EPS $20.12–$20.36 / new-definition non-GAAP $22.88–$23.12 (includes $5.81 SBC — do not reprint the old 'non-GAAP above $27' as if the definition did not change)
- GBS (ex-Mailchimp as a segment) holds the +13–14% FY27 guide on QBO Accounting / Online Services; Online Ecosystem stays the mix-shift engine off FY26 +19% / ex-Mailchimp +23%. IR 3-year GBS CAGR 10–15% (call) is the outer path, not a raise of this target
- TurboTax Live mix (53% of TurboTax, +37% FY26) plus the DIY price-value reset hold Consumer at the +4–6% FY27 guide (TurboTax +2–3%) — not the old +8–10% Consumer path, which the guide retired. IRS Direct File stays gone

### Bull — $575

QuickBooks becomes the AI-powered financial operating system for 12M+ SMBs, Intuit Intelligence compounds engagement, new-to-franchise acquisition re-accelerates company growth back through the mid-teens, and the multiple re-rates.

- International QuickBooks reaches critical mass in UK, Canada, and ANZ, contributing 20%+ of GBS segment growth by FY2028 (FY26 international online +10% constant currency — not yet that path)
- Online payment volume including Bill Pay holds the >$225B FY26 run-rate (call; +30%) and keeps compounding as Money stays a Big Bet — the old '$200B+' doubling line is now behind the print; do not raise this target on that catch-up
- Credit Karma holds the FY27 +11–13% guide ($2.919–$2.973B) and compounds toward $3B+ in FY2028 rather than '20%+ in FY2027' (retired by the guide); GAAP / new-def non-GAAP margins keep expanding as SBC falls toward 8% of revenue by FY2030 (call)

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