# Goldman Sachs (GS) — InvestMoat Analysis

_Last analyzed: September 25, 2026_
_Asset class: equity · Canonical page: https://investmoat.com/stocks/gs_

## Scores

| Dimension | Score (0–100) |
| --- | --- |
| Moat durability | 61 |
| Growth trajectory | 67 |
| Valuation | 69 |
| **Composite** | **65** |

Scores are computed deterministically from this asset’s data by the InvestMoat formula (see https://investmoat.com/llms.txt for methodology). Scores are not directly comparable across asset classes.

## Key stats

- **Ticker:** GS
- **Market Cap:** ~$283B

## Moat

Goldman Sachs is the dominant global investment bank — #1 or #2 in M&A advisory, equity underwriting, and equities trading — with a culture and client roster built over 155 years that no peer has been able to replicate. The moat is the network: every blue-chip CEO has a Goldman banker, every large fund pays Goldman commissions, and Goldman sees the deal flow first.

### The Capital Markets Network Moat

Goldman's competitive position rests on **client relationships, league-table dominance, and trading scale** — a virtuous network where each strengthens the others:

- **League-Table Network Effects:** Goldman has held the #1 or #2 position in global M&A advisory for the better part of three decades. CEOs hire the bank with the most relevant experience and the deepest cross-border network — and Goldman, by virtue of having advised on the most deals, has the most relevant experience. This is a self-reinforcing loop: more mandates beget more references beget more mandates. Q1 2026 IB fees rebounded sharply as M&A activity normalized.
- **Equities Franchise and Trading Scale:** Q1 2026 delivered record Equities revenues within Global Banking & Markets ($12.74B segment revenue, +19% YoY). Goldman's prime brokerage, derivatives, and program trading franchises see institutional flow that smaller competitors cannot match — and the data from that flow informs market-making across products. Trading scale is a moat that compounds with electronification, as fixed costs (tech, risk, compliance) spread over more volume.
- **Asset & Wealth Management Pivot:** AUS hit a record $3.65T in Q1 2026, with management-fee growth providing increasingly visible recurring revenue. The pivot toward AWM (alternatives, private credit, ultra-high-net-worth wealth) reduces earnings cyclicality, supports a higher multiple, and leverages Goldman's institutional brand into a fee-based franchise that the market values at 15-20x rather than 8-10x.

**Moat verdict:** Goldman has a durable network and brand moat in capital markets, but the franchise is more cyclical and relationship-driven than the universal-bank or alts peer set. AI accelerates banker productivity and pitch creation, modestly widening Goldman's lead in advisory, but cannot substitute for CEO trust. Hold; size up at trough multiples (~1.3x TBV).

### Top competitors

- **[Morgan Stanley (MS)](https://investmoat.com/stocks/ms):** Investment banking, trading and wealth management.
- **[JPMorgan Chase (JPM)](https://investmoat.com/stocks/jpm):** Top-ranked in advisory, underwriting and markets.
- **Evercore (EVR):** Independent M&A advisory.

## Growth

Q2 2026 net revenues rose 39% YoY to $20.34B, EPS $20.98, annualized ROE 23.5%. Global Banking & Markets revenue climbed 53% to $15.52B, with Equities +72% to $7.42B, FICC +32% to $4.59B and Investment Banking fees +55% to $3.40B, and the IB backlog rose again. Asset & Wealth Management revenue grew 20% to $4.60B and assets under supervision crossed $4T ($4.04T, up from $3.29T a year earlier). The efficiency ratio improved to 57.4% from 63.4%. This is a capital-markets peak print: growth depends on how much of it AWM compounding can hold as the cycle turns.

- **Revenue CAGR estimate:** 6-9%
- **Primary type:** market share
- **Margin trend:** expanding
- **Key risk (high):** Capital-markets cyclical reversion in 2026-2027: an M&A and trading slowdown from the Q2 2026 peak could cut IB fees and Equities revenue 30-40%, taking firm revenue down year on year and ROE back toward 12-13%.
- **Drivers:**
  - Global Banking & Markets — GBM revenue +53% YoY to $15.52B (Q1: +19%); Equities +72%, FICC +32% (accelerating)
  - Asset & Wealth Management — AWM revenue +20% YoY to $4.60B (Q1: +10%); AUS $4.04T, +23% YoY (accelerating)
  - Investment banking fees — IB fees +55% YoY to $3.40B; backlog up vs Q1 and year-end 2025 (accelerating)
- **Score derivation:** Base 68.8 (6–9% CAGR midpoint 7.5%, decayed from 1H26 revenue +27% YoY toward the through-cycle rate) + 4 trajectory (GBM, AWM and IB fees all accelerating versus Q1) + 4 expanding margin (efficiency ratio 57.4% vs 63.4%) − 10 high risk = 67. Severity stays high while MS is moderate: without MS's wealth ballast, a larger share of Goldman's revenue is exposed to capital-markets reversion.

## Valuation

At ~$936.36 (September 24, 2026) GS trades at ~12.9× 2026E EPS (~$72.77 consensus; H1 alone was $38.53) and ~2.8× tangible book ($336.61 at Q2) — the May file's ~1.7× TBV understated the book multiple. Earnings have run ahead of the old ladder: 2026 consensus already exceeds the ~$72 the May base assumed for 2027, so the ladder is re-based on ~$76 2027E. Price sits between the $660 bear and the $990 base (~6% below base), not above it; the Street mean target is ~$1,014. Q2 ROE of 23.5% is what the book multiple pays for — a capital-markets normalisation would hit both EPS and the multiple.

**Fair value:** $990 — Goldman is a great franchise but a cyclical stock. A ~2.8× TBV multiple is appropriate at a ~23% ROE but would compress toward ~2× if returns fell back to the mid-teens. The right way to own GS is to add when capital markets are out of favor, not at record quarters. At the current price the stock is close to fair value on consensus; hold, and add on a drawdown toward the low $700s.

| Multiple | Value | Note |
| --- | --- | --- |
| P/E (2026E) | ~12.9× | Consensus EPS ~$72.77 (range $63.95–79.27) |
| P/E (2027E) | ~12.3× | ~$76 EPS; 2027 net-income consensus ~4% above 2026 |
| Price / TBV | ~2.8× | Tangible book $336.61 per share at Q2 2026 |
| Price / Book | ~2.5× | Book value $367.67 per share at Q2 2026 |
| ROE | 23.5% | Q2 2026 annualised; 21.7% for H1 |

On earnings GS is priced like a bank (~13× 2026E); on book it is priced like a franchise at peak returns (~2.8× TBV). Both hold only while ROE stays above 20%. The base assumes 2027 grows only modestly off a record 2026 and the forward multiple holds ~13×; the Street expects barely any 2027 growth, which is the cyclical caution already in the multiple. _(as of September 2026)_

## Price scenarios

### Bear — $660

Capital-markets activity normalises sharply off the 2026 record, trading revenues fall back, IB fees drop 30%+, and 2027 EPS resets toward ~$55 with the multiple at ~12×.

- M&A pipeline freezes; investment banking fees fall 35% from the 2026 peak; ECM/DCM activity contracts as in 2022–2023
- Trading revenues normalise off cyclical highs; ROE falls back to the mid-teens; 2027 EPS compresses to ~$55
- ~12× ~$55 EPS, about 2.0× current TBV ($336.61) — implying ~$660

### Base — $990

Capital markets stay constructive but 2027 grows only modestly off a record 2026; AWM keeps compounding; ROE settles around 20%.

- 2026 EPS lands near the ~$72.77 consensus (H1 $38.53); 2027 grows to ~$76 in line with the net-income consensus
- AWM management fees provide visible recurring revenue; AWM segment margins expand
- ~13× 2027E EPS of ~$76, about 2.9× current TBV — implying ~$990, near the ~$1,014 Street mean

### Bull — $1,250

A multi-year M&A super-cycle plays out, AWM accelerates, 2027 EPS beats toward the top of the Street range, and the market re-rates GS toward an asset-light franchise multiple.

- Sustained M&A super-cycle drives IB fees toward the 2021 peak; ECM/DCM activity remains elevated
- AWM alternatives and ultra-HNW wealth drive 15%+ AWM growth and meaningful margin expansion
- ~15× 2027E EPS of ~$83 — implying ~$1,250

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