# CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) — InvestMoat Analysis _Last analyzed: October 9, 2026_ _Asset class: equity · Canonical page: https://investmoat.com/stocks/cnh_ ## Scores | Dimension | Score (0–100) | | --- | --- | | Moat durability | 65 | | Growth trajectory | 55 | | Valuation | 75 | | **Composite** | **63** | Scores are computed deterministically from this asset’s data by the InvestMoat formula (see https://investmoat.com/llms.txt for methodology). Scores are not directly comparable across asset classes. ## Key stats - **Ticker:** CNH - **Market Cap:** ~$14.5B ## Moat The #2 global farm-equipment maker behind Deere, with Case IH and New Holland dealer networks, CNH Capital financing and Raven's autonomy and guidance technology. The franchise is real but its earnings sit at a deep trough, its technology stack trails Deere's, and construction is a low-margin second business. ### The Number-Two Franchise CNH's moat is **two century-old farm brands and the second-largest ag dealer network in the West**, with Raven as its bid to close the technology gap on Deere: - **Case IH and New Holland:** Two full-line brands with loyal installed bases, Case IH strong in North American row crops and combines, New Holland in Europe, Brazil and hay and livestock. Dual-branding gives dealer coverage across geographies, but it also means CNH runs two dealer channels where Deere runs one. - **Raven and the Tech Gap:** The 2021 Raven acquisition brought autonomy, guidance and application-control technology in-house, and CNH has been building its tech stack since. It still trails Deere's Operations Center and See & Spray on adoption and installed connected fleet, and management does not report a separate precision revenue line. - **Trough Earnings:** Agriculture adjusted EBIT margin fell to 5.2% in Q2 2026 from 8.1%, and FY26 adjusted EPS of $0.41–0.46 is a fraction of the ~$1.85 CNH earned at the 2023 peak. Construction (+12% in Q2) helps, but its FY26 margin guide of 1.8–2.3% shows it is not a moat business. **Moat verdict:** CNH's moat is physical and commercial (brands, dealers, financing), so AI adds features rather than eroding it; Raven gives it a credible autonomy and guidance stack, but it is following Deere rather than setting the pace. No pillar clears the strong bar, and with ag margins at 5% the case is a cyclical recovery rather than a moat compounder. ### Top competitors - **[Deere & Company (DE)](https://investmoat.com/stocks/de):** Market leader in North American row-crop equipment and precision ag. - **[AGCO (AGCO)](https://investmoat.com/stocks/agco):** Fendt and Massey Ferguson, plus brand-agnostic PTx precision tech. - **[Kubota (KUBTY)](https://investmoat.com/stocks/kubota):** Compact tractors and compact construction equipment. ## Growth Q2 2026 (reported August 3): consolidated revenue $4.8B (+2%), Industrial net sales $4.14B (+3%), adjusted EPS $0.13 (−25% YoY, ahead of a ~$0.10–0.11 consensus). Agriculture net sales $3.28B (+1%, −1% constant currency) with adjusted EBIT margin 5.2% (from 8.1%); lower South American volumes offset price. North American tractors under 140 hp fell 16% industry-wide; EMEA tractors −11%. Construction $866M (+12%). FY26 guide narrowed to the high end: Industrial net sales flat to +2%, ag sales about flat, ag adjusted EBIT margin 5.0–5.5%, adjusted EPS $0.41–0.46, industrial free cash flow $200–400M. Management says dealer inventories have normalised. - **Revenue CAGR estimate:** 4-7% - **Primary type:** market share - **Margin trend:** compressing - **Key risk (moderate):** If commodity prices stay at or below farm breakeven into 2027 and tariffs keep inflating input costs, the ag margin stays near 5% and EPS fails to recover from the $0.41–0.46 trough. - **Drivers:** - Agriculture North America — Industry tractors under 140 hp −16% in Q2; dealer inventories normalised; price realisation positive (stable) - Agriculture South America — Lower Q2 volumes; FY26 ag sales about flat including ~2 points of currency (decelerating) - Construction — Q2 net sales +12% to $866M, North America-led; FY26 guide +5–10% (accelerating) - Precision tech (Raven) — Not reported separately; autonomy and guidance shipped on Case IH and New Holland (stable) - **Score derivation:** Base 63.75 (4–7%, 5.5% midpoint) + 0 trajectory (construction accelerating, Brazil decelerating; North American ag and precision held stable) − 4 margin (ag adjusted EBIT 8.1% → 5.2% in Q2, FY26 guide 5.0–5.5%) − 5 farm-income cycle risk (moderate, same step as Deere and AGCO under G4) = 55. ## Valuation At $11.55 (9 October 2026, intraday) CNH sits about 60% of the way from the $8.50 bear to the $13.50 base. On the $0.41–0.46 FY26 adjusted EPS guide that is ~26×, a trough multiple; on a recovery EPS near $0.70 it is ~16×. Street mean is ~$13.30, in line with the base. The score is the formula at $11.55 on an $8.50 / $13.50 / $17.50 ladder (t = (11.55 − 8.50) / 5 = 0.61 → 75). | Multiple | Value | Note | | --- | --- | --- | | P/E (FY26 guide) | ~26× | $0.41–0.46 adjusted EPS; trough | | P/E (recovery EPS ~$0.70) | ~16× | Inferred FY27–28 recovery, not company guidance | | Peak EPS reference | ~$1.85 | 2023, the last cycle peak | | Dividend yield | ~0.8% | Dividend cut with earnings in the downturn | Priced for a recovery that management says has started (dealer inventory normalised, guide raised). The discount to Deere reflects the weaker tech stack and the construction drag. _(as of October 2026)_ ## Price scenarios ### Bear — $8.50 The ag trough extends through 2027, construction cools, and the stock trades at ~12× a $0.70 EPS that keeps slipping out a year. - Row-crop farm income stays below breakeven and North American large-ag orders fall again in 2027 - Brazilian credit stays tight and South American volumes keep falling - Construction growth stalls as the North American cycle rolls over ### Base — $13.50 2026 is the trough; EPS recovers toward ~$0.70 by FY27–28 as ag volume and margin normalise, valued at ~19×. - Ag adjusted EBIT margin recovers from 5–5.5% toward 9–10% on volume - Construction keeps mid-single-digit growth and margin above 3% - Raven guidance and autonomy features raise attach rates on new Case IH and New Holland machines ### Bull — $17.50 A synchronised ag upcycle drives EPS toward $1.00+ by 2028 and a ~17× multiple as the tech gap with Deere narrows. - Ag margin returns to the low teens as in 2023 - CNH's precision and autonomy stack wins measurable share of new-machine tech spend - Buybacks resume at scale on recovered free cash flow --- InvestMoat is a research and education framework. Nothing here is financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.