# Bending Spoons S.p.A. (BSP) — InvestMoat Analysis

_Last analyzed: October 30, 2026_
_Asset class: equity · Canonical page: https://www.investmoat.com/stocks/bsp_

## Scores

| Dimension | Score (0–100) |
| --- | --- |
| Moat durability | 65 |
| Growth trajectory | 73 |
| Valuation | 65 |
| **Composite** | **67** |

Scores are computed deterministically from this asset’s data by the InvestMoat formula (see https://www.investmoat.com/llms.txt for methodology). Scores are not directly comparable across asset classes.

## Key stats

- **Ticker:** BSP (Nasdaq, listed Jul 1 2026)
- **Market Cap:** ~$30B
- **Net Debt:** ~$4.1B (2.4× adj.)

## Moat

Bending Spoons' edge is the operator, not the products: a shared technology platform and a very small, selective team that run acquired apps at margins their former owners never reached, which lets it outbid other buyers. The products themselves are mature consumer and prosumer tools sold month to month, with retention in the low 90s, so every customer-facing pillar is real and none is category-defining.

### The Operator's Moat

Bending Spoons owns **a repeatable way to run software cheaply**, laid over a portfolio of products whose own lock-in is ordinary:

- **The Platform and the Team:** Most acquired businesses move onto the company's own payments, experimentation, data and pricing tools, and teams are rebuilt much smaller: Evernote went from about 340 people to about 60. Revenue per employee was $2.57M in 2025 against $1.12M in 2023, and the company hired 286 people from about 800,000 applications. Adjusted operating margin rose from 36% in 2023 to 54% in Q2 2026 while it bought loss-making businesses such as Vimeo and Eventbrite.
- **Habit, Not Contracts:** 93% of 2025 revenue was subscriptions, mostly monthly. Revenue-weighted tenure is 8.0 years and 28% of subscription revenue comes from customers of ten years or more, which is real habit. But blended net revenue retention has stayed between 91% and 95% since 2023 (Evernote 99%, AOL 95%, StreamYard 91%, Remini 87%), so the base shrinks a little every year before price increases and acquisitions.
- **Acquisitions as the Growth Engine:** The company has bought more than 50 businesses and says it expects to put almost all available capital into acquisitions for many years. It targets a 25% unlevered and 65% levered return on each deal. Revenue went from $387M in 2023 to $1.31B in 2025, and about 82 of the 95 points of 2025 growth were bought.
- **What Could Wear It Down:** Note-taking, file transfer, photo enhancement and web portals are exactly the jobs general AI assistants and the big suites absorb. The company lists AI erosion, app-store rules (about a third of card payments run through Apple and Google), customer backlash from price increases and layoffs, material weaknesses in internal controls and its rising debt among its risks.

**Moat verdict:** Bending Spoons is a net loser from AI on its products and a net winner on its operations. The products, note-taking, file transfer, photo enhancement, a web portal and video hosting, are the kind of jobs AI assistants absorb, which shows in Remini's 87% retention and 3% organic growth. The operator gains: AI tools let a small team run more products, and its in-house agent processed more than 100 billion tokens in its first three weeks. Durable as a buyer and operator while deal flow and financing hold; no single product has a moat that would protect the stock on its own.

### Top competitors

- **Constellation Software (CSU.TO):** Serial acquirer that buys and keeps vertical-market software businesses for good.
- **[Alphabet (GOOGL)](https://www.investmoat.com/stocks/google):** Google Drive, Docs, YouTube and Gemini do the jobs of WeTransfer, Evernote, Vimeo and Remini.
- **[Microsoft (MSFT)](https://www.investmoat.com/stocks/msft):** OneNote, OneDrive, Lists and Copilot against Evernote, WeTransfer and Airtable.
- **Notion:** AI workspace taking note-taking and team-database users from Evernote and Airtable.

## Growth

Bending Spoons listed on Nasdaq on July 1, 2026 at $29 a share (34.4M primary and 23.6M secondary shares), and Berkshire Hathaway bought 10M newly issued shares at $33 on October 14, taking its stake to about 4%. Revenue was $387M in 2023, $671M in 2024 (+73%) and $1.31B in 2025 (+95%), then $601M in Q1 2026 (+132%) and $704M in Q2 (+126%). Organic growth was 7% in 2024, 13% in 2025 and 3% in Q2 2026, when Tractive and WeTransfer grew and Remini and Splice shrank. Guidance for 2026, set on August 12 and before the Airtable deal, is revenue of $2.78–2.82B (+114%) and adjusted operating income of $1.46–1.51B (+142%); Q3 is guided at $733–745M of revenue. Q2 GAAP operating margin was 34% and adjusted 54%; diluted EPS was $0.28 and adjusted EPS $0.46. H1 operating cash flow was $254M after $161M of interest paid. Q1 2026 revenue was 84% subscriptions, 12% advertising (mainly AOL) and 4% other. Airtable closed on September 4 for $1.29B in cash; Tractive closed in May for $759M. Q3 results are due around November 12.

- **Revenue CAGR estimate:** 15–20%
- **Primary type:** market share
- **Margin trend:** expanding
- **Key risk (high):** Growth is bought: organic revenue grew 3% in Q2 2026, blended retention is 94%, and the company plans to put almost all capital into acquisitions for years, funded with $4.9B of gross debt (interest $109M in Q2, about a third of GAAP operating income) and new shares. If credit tightens or sellers' prices rise so that deal flow falls below about $2B a year by 2028, or AI assistants push organic growth negative in note-taking, file transfer, photo editing and web portals, revenue growth falls to low single digits while leverage stays. Graded high, as Adobe is for the same AI substitution, and not severe because adjusted operating margins above 50%, 2.4× net leverage and $1.28B of undrawn revolver leave room to pause deals rather than forcing sales.
- **Drivers:**
  - Acquired Businesses (AOL, Vimeo, Eventbrite, Tractive, Airtable) — Drove ~123 of Q2's 126 points of growth; Q1 +132%, Q2 +126%, Q3 guided +113%; $2.01B of enterprise value bought in Q1 2026 alone (decelerating)
  - Organic Portfolio (Evernote, WeTransfer, Remini, StreamYard, komoot) — Organic growth 13% in FY2025, 3% in Q2 2026; blended NRR 94%; Remini and Splice shrinking, Tractive and WeTransfer growing (decelerating)
  - Advertising (AOL, Eventbrite) — 12% of Q1 2026 revenue, up from under 5% before AOL; Eventbrite first-party ad revenue up about 20% in Q2 (stable)
- **Score derivation:** Base ~82 (15–20% CAGR, acquisition-led on a fast-growing base) − 2.7 trajectory (acquired revenue growth slowing from +132% to a guided +113% as the base grows; organic growth slowing from 13% to 3%; advertising held stable) + 4 margin expanding (adjusted operating margin from 47% in FY2025 to 54% in Q2 2026) − 10 high keyRisk (the model needs a steady flow of acquisitions funded with debt, against a product base that shrinks without them; see keyRisk) = 73.

## Valuation

Scored at $46.78, the October 29, 2026 close, on a $27 / $47 / $68 ladder, so the stock sits on the base and scores 65. At that price the equity is worth about $30B on ~645M shares (635M after the IPO plus Berkshire's 10M) and the enterprise about $34B with ~$4.1B of net debt. The base of $47 is about 25× an estimated $1.90 of FY2027 adjusted EPS: Q2's $0.46 annualised, plus Airtable and a year of organic growth and margin work, less the added shares. The $1.90 is inferred, not consensus. The bear of $27 (below the $29 IPO price) is about 16× a bear-case $1.70, where acquisitions slow, organic revenue turns negative and the market prices a levered roll-up with shrinking products. The bull of $68 is about 30× a FY2028 $2.25, a year further out, if Airtable and the next large deals transform the way Vimeo and Eventbrite did. The Street mean is about $44–48 (11–12 analysts), close to the base. Adjusted EPS excludes reorganisation costs that recur with every deal ($79M in 2025), so the GAAP earnings are far lower: about 225× trailing.

**Fair value:** $47 (base): the stock trades at fair value — The base of $47 is about 25× an inferred $1.90 of FY2027 adjusted EPS. That is below Procore's ~28× because Bending Spoons' organic growth is lower and its adjusted EPS leaves out recurring reorganisation costs, and above the ~16× bear because the platform keeps lifting margins on what it buys. On the company's own FY2026 guide, the ~$34B enterprise value is about 23× adjusted operating income and 12× revenue. Free cash flow is thin after interest: H1 operating cash flow was $254M, so the price is about 60× annualised cash flow.

| Multiple | Value | Note |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~225× | TTM EPS ~$0.21; FY2025 GAAP net loss $(0.2)M |
| Forward P/E (FY2026) | ~34× | ~$1.36 consensus adjusted EPS |
| Forward P/E (FY2027E) | ~25× | ~$1.90 adjusted EPS, inferred |
| PEG Ratio | ~1.5× | FY27 P/E ÷ ~17% per-share growth |
| EV / Sales (FY2026) | ~12× | ~$34B EV ÷ $2.80B guide |
| Price / FCF | ~60× | H1 2026 operating cash flow $254M annualised, after interest |

On adjusted earnings Bending Spoons looks fairly priced for a 15–20% grower, about 25× an estimated 2027 figure with a PEG near 1.5. On GAAP earnings and cash flow it is expensive, because amortisation, recurring post-deal reorganisation costs and about $430M a year of interest sit between the 54% adjusted margin and what reaches shareholders. The price assumes the acquisition machine keeps running. _(as of October 29, 2026)_

## Price scenarios

### Bear — $27

Deal flow slows and the products show their age: organic revenue turns negative, financing gets dearer, and the market pays ~16× a bear-case $1.70 of adjusted EPS for a levered roll-up.

- Acquisitions fall below about $2B a year as rates or sellers' prices rise, so reported growth drops toward the organic rate
- AI assistants and the Google and Microsoft suites take note-taking, file transfer and photo-editing users, and blended retention slips below 90%
- A write-down on an older deal or a new control weakness reminds investors the adjusted figures exclude recurring costs

### Base — $47

The machine keeps running at its current pace: Airtable is absorbed, $2–3B a year of new deals land at the target returns, organic growth stays in low single digits, and the stock holds ~25× an estimated $1.90 of FY2027 adjusted EPS.

- FY2026 lands inside the $2.78–2.82B revenue and $1.46–1.51B adjusted operating income guide, plus a few weeks of Airtable
- Adjusted operating margin holds above 50% as Vimeo, AOL and Eventbrite finish their transformations
- Net leverage stays near 2.5× while deals are funded from cash flow, debt and occasional equity

### Bull — $68

Larger deals transform as well as the small ones did: Airtable and the next multi-billion acquisitions reach Bending Spoons margins, organic growth returns to high single digits, and the market pays ~30× a FY2028 $2.25.

- Airtable's margin rises toward the portfolio's within 18 months, proving the playbook works on business software as well as consumer apps
- Organic growth recovers to 7–10% as Vimeo's new self-serve plans and Tractive scale
- Berkshire-style long-term holders and the 25% unlevered return record earn a premium serial-acquirer multiple

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