# American Tower Corporation (AMT) — InvestMoat Analysis _Last analyzed: September 17, 2026_ _Asset class: equity · Canonical page: https://investmoat.com/stocks/amt_ ## Scores | Dimension | Score (0–100) | | --- | --- | | Moat durability | 88 | | Growth trajectory | 65 | | Valuation | 79 | | **Composite** | **78** | Scores are computed deterministically from this asset’s data by the InvestMoat formula (see https://investmoat.com/llms.txt for methodology). Scores are not directly comparable across asset classes. ## Key stats - **Ticker:** AMT - **Market Cap:** ~$82B ## Moat American Tower's moat is physical-site scarcity plus switching costs: a global portfolio of communications sites where zoning, land control, and multi-tenant colocation make like-for-like replacement slow and expensive, wrapped in long-term carrier leases. CoreSite adds an interconnection layer still open for a deeper restamp. ### The Scarce-Site Lease Moat AMT runs a **Scarce Digital Real-Estate Toll** that compounds through site control, lease duration, and colocation density: - **Site Scarcity and Zoning Friction:** New macro sites face zoning, permitting, and community opposition that incumbents already cleared years ago. That scarcity is the primary barrier: carriers need coverage footprints, and relocating antennas is operationally disruptive. AMT's scale across U.S./Canada, LatAm, Africa & APAC, and Europe turns one-off local entitlements into a portfolio that competitors cannot assemble quickly. - **Long Leases and Switching Costs:** Tenant relationships sit inside multi-year master lease agreements with contractual escalators. Moving equipment to another tower is costly in truck rolls, RF redesign, and network downtime — so churn is typically low outside discrete events (DISH being the current one). Q2 organic tenant billings were soft on a headline basis (~2%) but ~4% ex-DISH, with U.S./Canada ~5% ex-DISH — the lease machine under the churn print. - **Multi-Tenant Density Economics:** Incremental colocations on an existing tower are high-incremental-margin. More tenants per site improve returns without a proportional land or steel cost — a mild supply-side network effect that favors the densest portfolios. Carrier densification (5G/capacity) and neutral-host demand reinforce that dynamic even when net organic billings are temporarily depressed by a single-tenant churn event. - **CoreSite Option (Open Question):** CoreSite/data center property revenue is guiding ~15% growth and was called out as a raise driver in the Jul 28 outlook. Interconnection and cloud on-ramps can deepen switching costs beyond towers, but this first pass does not deep-dive utilization, book-to-bill, or AI/inference demand quality — flagged for a later restamp alongside international FX translation. **Moat verdict:** AMT's moat is AI-resilient physical scarcity: zoning-constrained sites, lease embedding, and colocation density. Software does not relocate steel. CoreSite is additive but not yet credited as a fully underwritten second fortress on this thin first pass. ## Growth Q2 2026 (reported Jul 28, 2026) printed total revenue $2.749B (+4.7%) and property revenue $2.688B (+6.3%). AFFO attributable to AMT common stockholders was $1.264B (+3.8%), or $2.71 per share (+4.2%). Management raised FY2026 AFFO guidance to $5.135–$5.215B / $11.00–$11.17 per share (~3% growth at the midpoint) and framed 2026 as a trough AFFO-growth year: normalized growth is higher ex-DISH and refinancing headwinds, with mid- to high-single-digit AFFO growth expected as those fade into 2027. Organic tenant billings ~2% headline / ~4% ex-DISH; U.S./Canada ~5% ex-DISH. CoreSite/data center property revenue growth guided ~15%. Net leverage ~4.9x, inside the 3–5x target. Philippines and Bangladesh exits closed in Q2. - **Revenue CAGR estimate:** 6-9% - **Primary type:** both - **Margin trend:** stable - **Key risk (moderate):** If organic tenant billings ex-DISH fail to re-accelerate toward mid-single digits into 2027 — because carrier consolidation, further churn, or delayed densification offset escalators — the trough-year framing breaks and the 6–9% AFFO CAGR band has to be rewritten lower. - **Drivers:** - Organic tenant billings (ex-DISH) — Headline organic ~2%; ~4% ex-DISH; U.S./Canada ~5% ex-DISH — 2026 trough around DISH churn (stable) - CoreSite / data centers — ~15% property revenue growth guided; called out in the Jul 28 raise alongside FX and one-time expense benefits (accelerating) - International towers + FX — LatAm / Africa & APAC / Europe still grow on a local basis; outlook includes ~$29M AFFO FX tailwind vs prior guide — translation remains an open restamp item (stable) - **Score derivation:** Base 68.8 (6–9% AFFO CAGR midpoint 7.5%) + 1.3 trajectory (CoreSite accelerating; organic tenant billings and international stable on an ex-DISH view) + 0 stable margins − 5 moderate risk (carrier consolidation / residual DISH / rates-FX) = 65 ## Valuation At $176.39 (Yahoo Sep 16, 2026 close), AMT screens about 26% above the $140 bear and about 20% below the $220 base. On the raised FY2026 AFFO midpoint (~$11.09/share) the stock is ~15.9× 2026 AFFO with a ~4% dividend yield (Q2 distribution $1.79, +5.3% YoY). That is inexpensive versus AMT's historical quality multiple if 2026 is truly the AFFO trough; it is only fair if organic growth stays stuck near the headline ~2%. Thin first pass — ladder is AFFO-multiple anchored, not a full NAV build. **Fair value:** $220 — Base fair value $220 assumes the DISH/refi trough clears on schedule, AFFO grows mid-single digits into 2027, and the market restores a ~18–20× AFFO multiple on look-through earnings. Live tape $176.39 (Sep 16 close); ~$82B equity value on ~467M diluted shares from the outlook. Not a hire screen — coverage valuation only. | Multiple | Value | Note | | --- | --- | --- | | Price / 2026E AFFO | ~15.9× | $176.39 ÷ ~$11.09 midpoint of $11.00–$11.17 guide | | AFFO yield (2026E) | ~6.3% | Before dividend policy; cash return is the distribution | | Dividend yield | ~4.1% | Q2 2026 distribution $1.79 (+5.3% YoY); annualizing ~$7.16 | | Net leverage | ~4.9× | Inside 3–5× target; total liquidity ~$9.9B at Q2 | | Price / Sales (NTM, rough) | ~7.5× | ~$82B equity / ~$10.8B midpoint property revenue guide — less useful than P/AFFO for a tower REIT | AMT is being priced closer to a trough-growth REIT than to a scarce-site compounder. If management's 2027 mid/high-single-digit AFFO path prints, ~16× 2026 AFFO leaves upside toward the $220 base. If ex-DISH organic stays muted and CoreSite decelerates, the multiple can compress toward the $140 bear without needing a balance-sheet accident. International FX and CoreSite depth remain the two largest unmodeled swings on this thin pass. _(as of September 17, 2026)_ ## Price scenarios ### Bear — $140 DISH overhang lasts longer than guided, ex-DISH organic stays ~2–3%, CoreSite decelerates, and the AFFO multiple compresses toward ~12–13× on a flat 2027. - Organic tenant billings ex-DISH remain sub-3% through 2027 as carrier consolidation and densification delays offset contractual escalators - CoreSite growth fades from the ~15% guide toward high-single digits without a clear AI/cloud interconnection ramp - Rates stay restrictive; refinancing costs keep AFFO growth near the 2026 trough print into 2027 - Multiple compresses to ~12.5× on ~$11 AFFO → ~$140; dividend still covered but the compounder narrative de-rates ### Base — $220 2026 is the trough: DISH and refinancing headwinds fade, AFFO returns to mid-single-digit growth in 2027, and the market pays ~18–20× look-through AFFO. - FY2026 AFFO lands inside $11.00–$11.17; 2027 AFFO/share grows mid-single digits as DISH comps ease - U.S./Canada organic ex-DISH holds near ~5%; consolidated ex-DISH organic returns toward ~4%+ - CoreSite sustains low-double-digit to ~15% property revenue growth without a leverage break above 5× - ~19× on ~$11.50–12 look-through AFFO supports ~$220; dividend continues mid-single-digit growth ### Bull — $280 CoreSite becomes a second growth engine, international FX stabilizes, and AFFO compounds high-single digits — multiple expands back toward prior-cycle scarcity pricing. - CoreSite outperforms the ~15% guide on interconnection / cloud demand and earns a data-center scarcity premium inside the consolidated multiple - Post-DISH organic billings surprise toward high-single digits on densification and new-tenant activity - Leverage trends toward the midpoint of 3–5× while AFFO/share compounds ~8–10% for several years - Market restores ~22–24× AFFO on growing earnings → ~$280 --- InvestMoat is a research and education framework. Nothing here is financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.