# S&P Global Q3 2026: Capital IQ Goes Under Review in the Quarter Ratings Grew 2% — InvestMoat Research _In July I said S&P Global's growth sits in Ratings and Indices, the half that owns a benchmark. Now S&P may separate Capital IQ, which I think is right for the moat. But Ratings grew 2% this quarter, and a company tilted further toward that half will swing more than the stock's nearly 6% jump assumes._ _Published: October 27, 2026 · Last reviewed: October 27, 2026 · Canonical page: https://www.investmoat.com/research/sp-global-q3-and-the-capital-iq-review_ _Tags: Financial Infrastructure, Earnings, Moat Durability_ _Covers: SPGI, MCO, MSCI_ ## Summary In July I argued that S&P Global's growth and moat sit in Ratings and Indices, which own a benchmark, while Market Intelligence and Energy sell data that buyers can replace. On October 27 S&P reported Q3 2026 and opened a strategic review, including a possible separation, of Capital IQ and the data businesses around it, which is that argument acted on. The same release showed Ratings growing 2% after 13% and 17% earlier in the year, slower than both data segments, while Indices grew 20%. I still think the benchmark half carries the moat, but Ratings is the cyclical part of it, and a company without Capital IQ keeps the margin and loses the steadiest revenue it has left after the Mobility spin. ## What would prove this wrong S&P Global's Ratings revenue grows more slowly than Market Intelligence's in both Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 (the Q1 report is due around late April 2027). With Q3 that would be three quarters in a row, which would mean the July split came from the 2026 issuance surge and not from where the growth sits. _Status as of October 27, 2026: **holding**._ --- SPGI price: (live) · Ratings revenue, Q3 2026: +2% · Indices revenue, Q3 2026: +20% · Market Intelligence, Q3 2026: +7% In July I [wrote](/research/sp-global-and-the-half-with-the-moat) that S&P Global is two companies under one ticker. Ratings and Indices own a benchmark and carry the growth, and Market Intelligence and Energy sell data that buyers can swap out. This morning S&P said it's reviewing a possible separation of Capital IQ, the part of that data half that competes with Bloomberg and FactSet. That's the split I described, and S&P is now acting on it. The stock jumped. What I underplayed is in the same release: Ratings grew 2%, slower than either data segment, and I think the price now assumes that bounces back. S&P says the review covers Capital IQ and the data businesses around it, and that it expects to keep the ratings-data feeds it sells alongside its ratings. There's no timetable, no revenue figure for what's in scope, and no promise of a deal, and full-year guidance assumes nothing changes. The stock was up 5.6% at $476 in the first half hour of trading, on the beat, the raised guide and the review. ## What I said in July, and what Q3 showed **The July piece's claims against S&P Global's Q3 2026 release. Growth is year over year on continuing operations.** | What I said in July | What Q3 showed | My read | | --- | --- | --- | | Indices grows several times faster than the data half | Indices +20%, against Market Intelligence +7% and Energy +6% | Held | | Ratings does too | Ratings +2%; transaction revenue, the fees on newly issued bonds, +1% after +25% in Q2 | Missed this quarter | | My test: both benchmark segments slow to the data rate for two quarters | Ratings went below it; Indices didn't move | One quarter of two, for one segment | _Figures as of October 27, 2026, S&P Global Q3 2026 results. Source: [S&P Global Reports Third Quarter Results; Announces Strategic Review for Capital IQ and Associated Data Businesses (8-K earnings release)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000064040/000006404026000053/spgi3q2026-earningsrelease.htm); [S&P Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K earnings release)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm)._ **S&P Global revenue growth by segment through 2026, extending the Q2 chart in the July piece. Energy, the other data segment, ran 7%, 3% and 6%. Q1 Market Intelligence is on S&P's old segment split. The second Ratings line is its revenue that doesn't depend on new bonds, the part I'm watching next.** | Period | Ratings | Ratings, excluding new-issue fees | Indices | Market Intelligence | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Q1 2026 | 13% | 11% | 17% | 8% | | Q2 2026 | 17% | 8% | 20% | 6% | | Q3 2026 | 2% | 4% | 20% | 7% | Q2 2026: Transaction revenue +25%; Q3 2026: Transaction revenue +1%. _Figures as of October 27, 2026, S&P Global Q1, Q2 and Q3 2026 results. Source: [S&P Global Reports First Quarter 2026 Results (8-K earnings release)](https://app.edgar.tools/filing/64040/0000064040-26-000019/spgi1q2026-earningsrelease.htm); [S&P Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K earnings release)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm); [S&P Global Reports Third Quarter Results; Announces Strategic Review for Capital IQ and Associated Data Businesses (8-K earnings release)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000064040/000006404026000053/spgi3q2026-earningsrelease.htm)._ ## I lumped two different benchmarks together I put Ratings and Indices in the same bucket because both own something other people's contracts refer to. That's still true of the moat. It isn't true of the growth. An index fee is charged on assets that sit in funds whether or not anyone trades, so it moves with the market level. A rating fee is mostly charged when a bond gets issued, so it moves with how much companies borrow that quarter. The July piece named that risk in its last section, then built the headline on a quarter when issuance was booming. S&P wasn't alone. At Moody's the ratings business shrank in the same quarter while analytics grew, and at MSCI the index business kept its lead. So across the three, the index businesses kept the spread and both rating agencies lost it at once. That points to the borrowing cycle rather than anything S&P did. It's good news for the moat, and bad news for anyone who expected the Q2 pace to last. **Benchmark segments against data segments at the three companies, Q3 2026, year-over-year revenue growth.** | Company | Index or ratings segment | Data segment | Spread | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | S&P Global | Indices +20%; Ratings +2% | Market Intelligence +7%; Energy +6% | Indices kept it, Ratings lost it | | Moody's | Ratings business −1% to $1,087M | Analytics +3% to $936M | Inverted | | MSCI | Index +18.1% to $532.6M | Analytics +4.8% | Kept | _Figures as of October 27, 2026, Q3 2026 releases. Source: [S&P Global Reports Third Quarter Results; Announces Strategic Review for Capital IQ and Associated Data Businesses (8-K earnings release)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000064040/000006404026000053/spgi3q2026-earningsrelease.htm); [Moody's Corporation Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: third quarter 2026 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001059556/000162828026066594/a3q26earningsrelease.htm); [MSCI Inc. Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: third quarter 2026 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001408198/000140819826000054/exhibit991earningsrelease-.htm)._ ## What S&P looks like without Capital IQ If Capital IQ goes, the company that's left leans harder on the two segments that swing. Market Intelligence barely moved all year while Ratings fell from 17% to 2%. Mobility, the auto-data unit S&P spun off in July, was the other steady subscription business, and it's already gone. So the margin would go up, because Capital IQ sits inside the lowest-margin segment S&P has, and the quarter-to-quarter swings would get bigger. I think that's a fair trade for S&P to make, and it's the trade I said the market should pay for. What I'd push back on is the size of the move on a day Ratings printed 2%. At $476 the stock sat right on the base case on its [stock page](/stocks/spgi), which assumes this year's guided earnings and a multiple like Moody's, about 26.7 times the midpoint of the new guide. Holding that multiple through a quarter like this one means the market expects Ratings to recover soon. I'd want to see it first. ## Why the market may be right to look through the quarter The best case against me is that I'm reading too much into one quarter. Ratings grew about 11% over the first nine months, well ahead of Market Intelligence, and Q3 2025 was the strongest Ratings quarter of last year's first three, so it was a hard comparison. A flat quarter after a borrowing boom is normal for a rating agency. On that view S&P raised both its organic growth guide and its margin guide, and the review only helps: it gets rid of a business that competes with Bloomberg and FactSet on price and keeps the ones nobody can copy. I agree with most of that. The part I can't wave away is the non-transaction line, the ratings revenue that doesn't depend on new bonds, which slowed every quarter this year (the second Ratings line in the chart). Some of that may be currency or timing, and S&P didn't explain it in the release. If it keeps slowing while issuance recovers, the problem is bigger than the issuance cycle, and the case for keeping only the benchmark half gets weaker. ## What I'm checking next **The dated checks this note sets up.** | When | What | What would change my mind | | --- | --- | --- | | Early February 2027 | S&P Global Q4 2026 results | Ratings below Market Intelligence again would be a warning, not yet the trip; ratings revenue excluding new-issue fees below 4% would worry me more | | Late April 2027 | S&P Global Q1 2027 results | A third straight quarter of Ratings below Market Intelligence would trip this note's test | | No date set | Outcome of the Capital IQ review | A sale price or spin terms, and how much revenue and profit leave with it | _Figures as of October 27, 2026. Source: [S&P Global Reports Third Quarter Results; Announces Strategic Review for Capital IQ and Associated Data Businesses (8-K earnings release)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000064040/000006404026000053/spgi3q2026-earningsrelease.htm); [Moody's Corporation Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: third quarter 2026 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001059556/000162828026066594/a3q26earningsrelease.htm)._ I'm still holding the July view on where the moat is. I'm no longer treating Ratings growth as steady, and I'll come back after the Q4 print. ## Sources 1. [S&P Global Reports Third Quarter Results; Announces Strategic Review for Capital IQ and Associated Data Businesses (8-K earnings release)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000064040/000006404026000053/spgi3q2026-earningsrelease.htm) — S&P Global (SEC filing), October 27, 2026 (filing) 2. [S&P Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K earnings release)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm) — S&P Global (SEC filing), July 28, 2026 (filing) 3. [S&P Global Reports First Quarter 2026 Results (8-K earnings release)](https://app.edgar.tools/filing/64040/0000064040-26-000019/spgi1q2026-earningsrelease.htm) — S&P Global (SEC filing, via edgar.tools), April 28, 2026 (filing) 4. [Moody's Corporation Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: third quarter 2026 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001059556/000162828026066594/a3q26earningsrelease.htm) — Moody's (SEC filing), October 21, 2026 (filing) 5. [MSCI Inc. Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: third quarter 2026 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001408198/000140819826000054/exhibit991earningsrelease-.htm) — MSCI (SEC filing), October 20, 2026 (filing) --- Scores are computed deterministically from each asset's data file: composite = Moat^0.40 × Growth^0.30 × Valuation^0.30, scaled to 0–100. Full analyses for every name above: https://www.investmoat.com/stocks. Site index for agents: https://www.investmoat.com/llms.txt InvestMoat is an open-source research and education framework. Nothing here is financial advice.