# Nvidia After Jensen Huang: Do Google, Amazon or AMD Gain? — InvestMoat Research _Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia's CEO after a second reported affair. We don't think Google, Amazon or AMD take much of Nvidia's 2027 business, but we think the buyers with their own chips get a better price on the next build._ _Published: November 12, 2026 · Last reviewed: November 12, 2026 · Canonical page: https://www.investmoat.com/research/nvidia-after-jensen-huang-who-gains-share_ _Tags: Semiconductors, Governance, AI Infrastructure, Catalyst_ _Covers: NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, AVGO, META, AMD_ ## Summary Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia's CEO and director on November 12, 2026, after admitting an affair and a New York Times report, unconfirmed by Nvidia, of a second relationship with a subordinate; CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO. We think little of Nvidia's 2027 revenue moves to Google's TPU, Amazon's Trainium or AMD, because next year's chips are already designed, booked and planned into data centers, and CUDA keeps buyers without their own chip in place. We expect the cost to show up first in price, as Google, Amazon and Meta use their own chips as leverage in talks for the next build while Nvidia runs a CEO search. AMD gains volume from nervous buyers but sells below Nvidia's price at a margin under its own average. The risks to this view run both ways: Nvidia is sold out and may hold price, or Huang's absence slows the roadmap and turns this into lost share. ## What would prove this wrong If Nvidia's non-GAAP gross margin is 75.0% or higher in each of Q1, Q2 and Q3 of fiscal 2028 (the last reported around late November 2027), the big buyers didn't win price on the next build and we're wrong about where the cost lands. If Nvidia's revenue comes in below the low end of its own guide for Q4 FY2027 or Q1 FY2028 and it blames customer demand, share moved faster than we think and we're wrong about the timing. _Status as of November 12, 2026: **holding**._ --- Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia's CEO on Thursday. [Three days ago](/research/nvidia-jensen-huang-affair-and-the-washington-risk) we wrote that he'd probably keep the job, and we were wrong. The question now is whether Google, Amazon or AMD take Nvidia's business. We don't think much of it moves in 2027, because next year's chips were ordered and designed long before this week. Where we think Nvidia pays first is on price, in the talks for the build after that, and the buyers best placed to push are the ones that already make their own chips. Quick glossary for the table. Google's TPU and Amazon's Trainium are AI chips those companies design for their own data centers and now also rent or sell to others. CUDA is Nvidia's software layer, which most AI code is written for and which makes switching away from Nvidia slow. Neoclouds are GPU-rental clouds like CoreWeave. Deals here are sized in gigawatts of data-center power, because that's how buyers plan capacity. **Who already has an alternative to Nvidia, and what's signed. Gigawatts are each deal's stated capacity, not chips delivered. The last column is our judgment, not a reported figure.** | Buyer | Its alternative | What's signed or reported | Our read of its leverage | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Google | TPU, built with Broadcom | Nearly 100 TPU customers; Anthropic named for 1 GW in 2026 and another 5 GW in 2027 on Broadcom's call; TPU systems now go into customers' own data centers | High | | Amazon | Trainium | Commitments for its own chips, Trainium included, up more than 20x in a year; Anthropic up to 5 GW of new capacity on Trainium2 through Trainium4; Trainium sold outside AWS from late 2027 | High inside AWS | | Meta | Its own chips, built by Broadcom, plus AMD GPUs | Up to 6 GW of AMD GPUs; Broadcom-built accelerators | High | | OpenAI | AMD GPUs, plus its own chip with Broadcom | 6 GW of AMD GPUs; Broadcom says its chip is on track for 1.3 GW in 2027 | Medium | | Smaller AI labs, neoclouds, governments | AMD, and now Google's TPU for some | Roughly half of Nvidia's business, per Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore | Low, for now | _Figures as of November 12, 2026. Source: [Broadcom Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript](https://www.webull.com/news/15511095937917952); [Alphabet Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results](https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2026/q3/2026q3-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf); [Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings call transcript](https://www.tradingkey.com/news/transcripts/262249599-tradingkey); [Amazon custom chips demand, Q3 2026 earnings](https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-custom-chips-demand-q3-2026-earnings); [Anthropic and Amazon expand collaboration for up to 5 gigawatts of new compute](https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-amazon-compute); [AMD and OpenAI announce strategic partnership to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs](https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1260/amd-and-openai-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deploy-6-gigawatts-of-amd-gpus); [AMD and Meta announce expanded strategic partnership](https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1279/amd-and-meta-announce-expanded-strategic-partnership); [Nvidia's 'Very Undemanding Valuation' Helps Win Back Top Chip Pick From Leading Analyst (Morgan Stanley, Joseph Moore)](https://www.webull.com/news/15678967707337729)._ ## Why 2027 orders mostly stay put Chips that ship next year are already designed, booked into TSMC's factories and planned into buyers' data centers. Minotaur Capital's Armina Rosenberg made the same point this week, per [BigGo Finance](https://finance.biggo.com/news/6fdf881f-016e-4752-8a4c-b8c2e0cf6ce5): customers' 2027 plans don't depend on who the CEO is. Nvidia's new chair, Harvey Jones, said in Thursday's release that he expects customer commitments and the product roadmap to continue without interruption. The smaller buyers at the bottom of the table mostly stay too. Their code is written for CUDA, and while Amazon now offers tools to run the same code on Trainium and Google sells TPUs outside its own cloud, moving a working system is still a project. As we argued in [October](/research/nvidia-and-the-watt-it-has-to-win), the custom chips win with buyers big enough to write their own software, and those are the same few names at the top of this table. ## We think price gives before share Nvidia kept about 75 cents of every dollar of sales as gross profit in each of the last three reported quarters. That's the number a buyer with its own chip negotiates against. AMD made 56% in the quarter to September and says its AI chips sit below that, which we covered in [AMD's Q3 piece](/research/amd-q3-and-the-ai-margin-below-its-own-average). **Nvidia's non-GAAP gross margin by quarter (fiscal Q3 FY27 is the quarter to October 2026). The last point is Nvidia's own guide, set in August, and on that call its CFO said memory prices had risen more than expected, so a dip from input costs alone doesn't show buyers pushing back. From Q1 FY27 Nvidia counts stock pay in non-GAAP costs, worth about a tenth of a point.** | Period | Reported | Guide | | --- | --- | --- | | Q3 FY26 | 73.6% | — | | Q4 FY26 | 75.2% | — | | Q1 FY27 | 75% | — | | Q2 FY27 | 75% | 75% | | Q3 FY27 | — | 74% | _Figures as of August 2026, Nvidia quarterly results releases and the Q2 FY2027 call. Source: [NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Third Quarter Fiscal 2026](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-third-quarter-fiscal-2026); [NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2026](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-2026); [NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for First Quarter Fiscal 2027](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2027); [NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2027](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2027); [NVIDIA Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings call transcript](https://www.webull.com/news/15497781742806016)._ Here's the mechanism as we read it. Google or Amazon doesn't have to move a single workload to use this week. It only has to bring a credible TPU or Trainium quote to the talks for its next build, and those talks now happen with an interim CEO who's also still the CFO, while the board runs a search. Huang set Nvidia's terms with these customers for years. A new team that wants to keep its biggest accounts has an easy lever in price, and we'd expect it to use some of it before it risks losing a buyer to its own chip. ## Google first, then Amazon, and AMD on volume Google is in the best spot. It runs its own TPUs, sells them to nearly 100 customers, and Anthropic has signed for gigawatts of them, so it has both the cheaper chip and a growing outside business. Broadcom, which builds the TPU, gains with it. Amazon comes next. It says its custom chips, Graviton and Trainium, saved customers more than $2 billion in the quarter to September, and it plans to sell Trainium outside AWS late in 2027, around when the next round of contracts gets written. Monday's AMD jump came partly from Google choosing AMD server processors for its newest TPU systems, per [NewsBytes](https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/business/amd-stock-rises-125-to-50480-after-google-cloud-deal/tldr). That's a win inside Google's chip, not instead of Nvidia's. Some commentators, like Luke Lango on [Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/analysis/jensen-huangs-scandal-quiet-ai-tailwind-200691249), argue the scandal speeds a shift to AMD and the custom chips. AMD is the only GPU a neocloud or government can switch to without its own chip team, so we'd expect it to pick up some nervous buyers. But it wins them by pricing under Nvidia, and if Nvidia trims price to keep the big accounts, the gap AMD sells into gets smaller. **The names this reads on, grouped by our read of what Huang's exit gives them.** | Ticker | Name | Moat | Growth | Valuation | Composite | Note | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Pays first on price** | | | | | | | | [NVDA](https://www.investmoat.com/stocks/nvda) | NVIDIA Corp. | 81 | 91 | 79 | 88 | Interim CEO, open board investigation, and its biggest buyers each holding an alternative | | **Owns a second chip and gets leverage** | | | | | | | | [GOOGL](https://www.investmoat.com/stocks/google) | Alphabet Inc. | 83 | 76 | 79 | 82 | TPU in its own fleet and sold to outside customers, Anthropic included | | [AMZN](https://www.investmoat.com/stocks/amazon) | Amazon.com Inc. | 89 | 81 | 79 | 87 | Trainium inside AWS now, outside AWS from late 2027 | | [META](https://www.investmoat.com/stocks/meta) | Meta Platforms Inc. | 82 | 74 | 65 | 74 | Broadcom-built chips and up to 6 GW of AMD GPUs | | **Builds the second chip** | | | | | | | | [AVGO](https://www.investmoat.com/stocks/avgo) | Broadcom Inc. | 70 | 89 | 82 | 83 | Paid when Google and Meta shift work to their own chips | | **Wins volume, has to win on price** | | | | | | | | [AMD](https://www.investmoat.com/stocks/amd) | Advanced Micro Devices | 53 | 87 | 72 | 70 | The GPU a buyer without its own chip can switch to, at a margin below AMD's average | _Valuation and composite above use each asset's static valuation score; the live site recomputes them against the current market price._ ## Huang set the pace, and Nvidia is sold out There are two good objections, and they point in opposite directions. The first is that Nvidia sells everything it can make. Moore says the half of the business outside the big clouds is probably growing faster, and the big clouds have been waving TPU and Trainium quotes at Nvidia for three years while its margin stayed around 75%. A sold-out seller doesn't have to give on price, and a new CEO may simply hold the line. If that's right, the margin holds and we're wrong. The second is that we're underrating what Huang did. He set the yearly cadence of new chips that keeps AMD and the custom-chip makers a generation behind, and he pushed partners to build capacity ahead of demand. An executive at one of Nvidia's Taiwan partners was quoted by BigGo saying they'd keep supporting Nvidia but "a new CEO may not be as aggressive as Jensen Huang." Bernstein downgraded Nvidia to the equivalent of a hold this week, and Dan Ives at Yorkville Ives put a lower price target on a Nvidia without Huang, per [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/live/nvidia-live-updates-nvidia-stock-tanks-in-after-hours-after-allegations-of-a-second-affair-surface-222438011.html). If the chip after Rubin, Nvidia's next system, slips by even a few months, Google and Amazon get time to move real work onto their own chips, and then it's share, not just price. > **When we'd call it a share problem** — If the permanent CEO pick comes with a delay to the chip after Rubin, or a big buyer says it's moving capacity it had planned on Nvidia to its own chip or to AMD, we'll treat this as Nvidia losing share and say so. ## What we'll look at, and when November 17 is Nvidia's earnings for the quarter to October: the margin against the 74% guide, the guide for the quarter to January, and anything Kress says about pricing. After that it's the permanent CEO pick, Broadcom's December report on its AI revenue, and Amazon's plans for selling Trainium outside AWS. ## What's confirmed and what's only reported **Where each piece of this week's news stands, as of Thursday morning.** | What | How solid it is | Where it comes from | | --- | --- | --- | | Huang told staff he'd been unfaithful to his wife | Confirmed | His own letter, November 8 | | Huang also had a relationship with a senior executive who reported to him | Reported; neither Huang nor Nvidia has confirmed it | New York Times, November 11, from five people who worked at Nvidia | | Independent directors hired former acting US Attorney Joon Kim and Wachtell Lipton to investigate | Confirmed | Board statement, November 10 | | NVDA fell about 7% after hours on reports the board was preparing to remove him | Reported | Yahoo Finance and ABC7, citing the Wall Street Journal | | Huang resigned as CEO and director, effective immediately; CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO and keeps the CFO job, and Harvey Jones becomes the board's first chair | Confirmed | Nvidia release, November 12 | _Figures as of November 12, 2026. Source: [Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang admits to an affair with a suspected Chinese spy (includes the full staff letter)](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-admits-to-having-an-affair-with-suspected-chinese-spy-jensen-apologizes-in-letter-to-staff-company-board-forms-independent-committee-to-investigate); [Statement From the Independent Members of the NVIDIA Board](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/statement-from-the-independent-members-of-the-nvidia-board); [NVIDIA Announces CEO Transition](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-ceo-transition); [Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigns, board of directors announce](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-resigns/); [Nvidia live updates: stock tanks after new affair allegations, board reportedly preparing to oust Jensen Huang](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/live/nvidia-live-updates-nvidia-stock-tanks-in-after-hours-after-allegations-of-a-second-affair-surface-222438011.html); [Nvidia board preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang after 2nd affair with subordinate revealed, reports say](https://abc7news.com/post/nvidia-board-preparing-oust-ceo-jensen-huang-2nd-affair-subordinate-revealed-reports-say/20034548/)._ ## Sources 1. [NVIDIA Announces CEO Transition](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-ceo-transition) — NVIDIA, November 12, 2026 (press-release) 2. [Statement From the Independent Members of the NVIDIA Board](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/statement-from-the-independent-members-of-the-nvidia-board) — NVIDIA, November 10, 2026 (press-release) 3. [Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang admits to an affair with a suspected Chinese spy (includes the full staff letter)](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-admits-to-having-an-affair-with-suspected-chinese-spy-jensen-apologizes-in-letter-to-staff-company-board-forms-independent-committee-to-investigate) — Tom's Hardware, November 8, 2026 (third-party) 4. [Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigns, board of directors announce](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-resigns/) — CBS News, November 12, 2026 (third-party) 5. [Nvidia live updates: stock tanks after new affair allegations, board reportedly preparing to oust Jensen Huang](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/live/nvidia-live-updates-nvidia-stock-tanks-in-after-hours-after-allegations-of-a-second-affair-surface-222438011.html) — Yahoo Finance, November 11, 2026 (third-party) 6. [Nvidia board preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang after 2nd affair with subordinate revealed, reports say](https://abc7news.com/post/nvidia-board-preparing-oust-ceo-jensen-huang-2nd-affair-subordinate-revealed-reports-say/20034548/) — ABC7 San Francisco, November 12, 2026 (third-party) 7. [NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Third Quarter Fiscal 2026](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-third-quarter-fiscal-2026) — NVIDIA, November 19, 2025 (press-release) 8. [NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2026](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-2026) — NVIDIA, February 25, 2026 (press-release) 9. [NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for First Quarter Fiscal 2027](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2027) — NVIDIA, May 20, 2026 (press-release) 10. [NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2027](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2027) — NVIDIA, August 26, 2026 (press-release) 11. [NVIDIA Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings call transcript](https://www.webull.com/news/15497781742806016) — Webull, August 26, 2026 (transcript) 12. [Broadcom Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript](https://www.webull.com/news/15511095937917952) — Benzinga via Webull, September 2, 2026 (transcript) 13. [AMD and OpenAI announce strategic partnership to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs](https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1260/amd-and-openai-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deploy-6-gigawatts-of-amd-gpus) — AMD, October 6, 2025 (press-release) 14. [AMD and Meta announce expanded strategic partnership](https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1279/amd-and-meta-announce-expanded-strategic-partnership) — AMD, February 24, 2026 (press-release) 15. [Alphabet Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results](https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2026/q3/2026q3-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf) — Alphabet, October 28, 2026 (press-release) 16. [Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings call transcript](https://www.tradingkey.com/news/transcripts/262249599-tradingkey) — TradingKey, October 28, 2026 (transcript) 17. [Amazon custom chips demand, Q3 2026 earnings](https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-custom-chips-demand-q3-2026-earnings) — Amazon, October 30, 2026 (company-site) 18. [Anthropic and Amazon expand collaboration for up to 5 gigawatts of new compute](https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-amazon-compute) — Anthropic, April 20, 2026 (company-site) 19. [Nvidia's 'Very Undemanding Valuation' Helps Win Back Top Chip Pick From Leading Analyst (Morgan Stanley, Joseph Moore)](https://www.webull.com/news/15678967707337729) — Benzinga via Webull, October 2, 2026 (third-party) --- Scores are computed deterministically from each asset's data file: composite = Moat^0.40 × Growth^0.30 × Valuation^0.30, scaled to 0–100. Full analyses for every name above: https://www.investmoat.com/stocks. Site index for agents: https://www.investmoat.com/llms.txt InvestMoat is an open-source research and education framework. Nothing here is financial advice.