# Constellation's Amazon and Google Nuclear Deals: Hyperscalers Pay for Added Megawatts — InvestMoat Research

_Constellation signed Amazon and Google in six days. The contracts matter more than the stock move: seven of the nine nuclear deals a named tech giant signed in this group add new capacity, and a March White House pledge made that the rule. Power companies now compete on how much they can still add._

_Published: October 6, 2026 · Last reviewed: October 6, 2026 · Canonical page: https://investmoat.com/research/constellation-and-the-megawatt-a-hyperscaler-has-to-add_
_Tags: Nuclear, AI Infrastructure, Business Models_
_Covers: CEG, VST, NEE, TLN, OKLO_

## Summary

Constellation signed two big nuclear contracts in six days. On September 30, 2026 Amazon agreed to buy 690 MW from Calvert Cliffs for 20 years, including about 190 MW of uprates (extra output squeezed from existing reactors) and the revenue to renew the plant's licence. On October 6 Google signed a 20-year contract for 890 MW of uprates across 11 reactors, plus a 15-year financial agreement for 2,700 MW that leaves the power on the grid. Across the five nuclear companies covered here, seven of the nine contracts with a named tech buyer add something new: a restart, an uprate, a licence renewal or a new reactor. The two that sell only existing output were signed in 2025. In March 2026 Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft signed a White House pledge to buy from "new or otherwise additive" plants. So the next contract goes to the companies with the most room to add, which favours Constellation and Vistra over Talen.

## What would prove this wrong

If, by October 6, 2027, one of the seven original pledge signers (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle or xAI) is named as buyer in a US nuclear agreement of 500 MW or more in which added megawatts (uprates, restarts or new units) are under 10% of the contracted total and no licence extension is tied to it, counting agreements announced together as one deal, then named hyperscalers still buy existing output on its own and the headroom sort is wrong.

_Status as of October 6, 2026: **holding**._

---

CEG price: (live) · CEG moat: 80 · VST moat: 72 · TLN moat: 65

Constellation signed two tech giants in six days. On September 30 Amazon agreed to buy 690 MW from the Calvert Cliffs plant in Maryland for 20 years. The stock traded 3.8% higher before the open on October 1. On October 6 Google signed a two-part deal, and the shares rose about 5% before the open again. The easy reading is simple: AI still needs nuclear power, reactors are scarce, so anyone who owns one wins.

**The two Constellation contracts, as announced.**

| Contract | Existing output | Megawatts added | What else it carries | Market reaction |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Amazon, Calvert Cliffs (Sep 30) | About 500 MW sold for 20 years | About 190 MW of uprates, online 2030–2032 | Pays to renew the licences of two reactors that expire in 2034 and 2036; more than $3B of investment | CEG +3.79% before the open, October 1 |
| Google (Oct 6) | 2,700 MW for 15 years, as a financial contract; the power stays on the grid | 890 MW of uprates at 11 units in IL, PA and NJ under a 20-year contract, first by 2028 | More than $4.3B of new investment by Constellation; a five-year Google Cloud technology alliance | CEG about +5% before the open, October 6 |

_Figures as of October 6, 2026 — company announcements and same-day market reports. Source: [Constellation and Amazon Announce 20-Year Power Purchase Agreement at Calvert Cliffs](https://www.constellationenergy.com/news/2026/09/constellation-and-amazon-announce-20-year-power-purchase-agreement-at-calvert-cliffs.html); [Constellation, Amazon agree nuclear-focused power purchase deal](https://world-nuclear-news.org/articles/constellation-amazon-agree-nuclear-focused-power-purchase-deal); [Google and Constellation Announce Landmark Agreement to Bring 890 MW of New Nuclear Capacity to PJM Grid as Part of Long-Term Power Deal](https://www.googlecloudpresscorner.com/2026-10-06-Google-and-Constellation-Announce-Landmark-Agreement-to-Bring-890-MW-of-New-Nuclear-Capacity-to-PJM-Grid-as-Part-of-Long-Term-Power-Deal); [Constellation Energy, Amazon Lock 20-Year Nuclear Power Purchase Agreement; Stock Soars](https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/10/62100792/constellation-energy-amazon-lock-20-year-nuclear-power-purchase-agreement-stock-soars); [Constellation shares gain on 20-year nuclear power deal with Google](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/constellation-shares-gain-on-20year-nuclear-power-deal-with-google-4933938)._

Look at the middle column, not the last one. **Neither contract sells existing output on its own.** Both pay for an uprate, which means new equipment that lets an existing reactor produce more power. Amazon's contract also pays to renew the licences of two reactors that would otherwise expire in the next decade. Google's 2,700 MW of existing output is a financial contract: the power keeps flowing to PJM, the grid that serves Pennsylvania, New Jersey and 11 other states. It comes attached to 890 MW of new output that Constellation will spend more than $4.3 billion to build.

## Seven of nine tech contracts add new capacity

Two deals in a week are not a pattern. The table below lists every current nuclear contract the five covered companies have signed with a named tech buyer, plus the White House pledge. Talen's 2024 supply to an Amazon data centre next to its plant is left out, because its 2025 contract replaced it.

**Every current nuclear contract with a named tech buyer in the cohort, and the pledge.**

| Date | Buyer · seller | Size and term | What it adds |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 2024 | Microsoft · Constellation (Crane) | 837 MW, 20 yrs | Restarts a reactor closed in 2019 |
| Jun 2025 | Meta · Constellation (Clinton) | 1,121 MW, 20 yrs | Licence renewal; 30 MW uprate |
| Jun 2025 | Amazon · Talen (Susquehanna) | 1,920 MW, to 2042 | Nothing signed; uprates to be explored |
| Sep 2025 | Amazon · Vistra (Comanche Peak) | 1,200 MW, 20 yrs | Nothing signed; uprate options |
| Oct 2025 | Google · NextEra (Duane Arnold) | 615 MW, 25 yrs | Restarts a plant shut in 2020 |
| Jan 2026 | Meta · Vistra (three Ohio and Pennsylvania plants) | 2,609 MW, 20 yrs | 433 MW of uprates bought by Meta |
| Jan 2026 | Meta · Oklo (Ohio) | 1.2 GW campus | Entirely new reactors; Meta prepays |
| Mar 2026 | White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge | Signed by Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, xAI | Buy from "new or otherwise additive" plants; pay the full cost |
| Sep 2026 | Amazon · Constellation (Calvert Cliffs) | 690 MW, 20 yrs | About 190 MW of uprates; licence renewal |
| Oct 2026 | Google · Constellation | 890 MW, 20 yrs, plus 2,700 MW financial, 15 yrs | 890 MW of uprates at 11 reactors; $4.3B+ investment |

_Figures as of October 6, 2026 — company releases and filings, White House pledge text, trade-press reports as dated. Source: [Constellation to Launch Crane Clean Energy Center (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868275/000186827524000058/ceg-202409208kexh991.htm); [Constellation, Meta Sign 20-Year Deal for Clean, Reliable Nuclear Energy in Illinois](https://www.constellationenergy.com/newsroom/2025/constellation-meta-sign-20-year-deal-for-clean-reliable-nuclear-energy-in-illinois.html); [Talen Energy Expands Nuclear Energy Relationship with Amazon (Form 8-K exhibit)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1622536/000162828025030559/a20250611pressreleasebusin.htm); [Amazon and Meta agreements boost Vistra nuclear plants](https://wnn.world-nuclear.org/articles/ppas-support-extended-operations-at-vistra-plants); [Vistra Corp. Form 8-K: 20-year power purchase agreement at Comanche Peak](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000119312525221774/d43667d8k.htm); [Google Has Deal with NextEra to Restart Duane Arnold Nuclear Plant](https://www.powermag.com/google-has-deal-with-nextera-to-restart-duane-arnold-nuclear-plant/); [Vistra and Meta Announce Agreements to Support Nuclear Plants in PJM and Add New Nuclear Generation to the Grid](https://investor.vistracorp.com/2026-01-09-Vistra-and-Meta-Announce-Agreements-to-Support-Nuclear-Plants-in-PJM-and-Add-New-Nuclear-Generation-to-the-Grid); [Meta announces 'landmark' agreements for new nuclear](https://wnn.world-nuclear.org/articles/meta-announces-landmark-agreements-for-new-nuclear); [Ratepayer Protection Pledge](https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/03/ratepayer-protection-pledge/); [White House Expands Data Center Ratepayer Pledge as Congress Moves to Codify Protections](https://www.powermag.com/white-house-expands-data-center-ratepayer-pledge-as-congress-moves-to-codify-protections/); [Constellation and Amazon Announce 20-Year Power Purchase Agreement at Calvert Cliffs](https://www.constellationenergy.com/news/2026/09/constellation-and-amazon-announce-20-year-power-purchase-agreement-at-calvert-cliffs.html); [Google and Constellation Announce Landmark Agreement to Bring 890 MW of New Nuclear Capacity to PJM Grid as Part of Long-Term Power Deal](https://www.googlecloudpresscorner.com/2026-10-06-Google-and-Constellation-Announce-Landmark-Agreement-to-Bring-890-MW-of-New-Nuclear-Capacity-to-PJM-Grid-as-Part-of-Long-Term-Power-Deal)._

Seven of the nine contracts add something new: a restart, an uprate, a licence renewal or a new reactor. Only two sell existing output alone, Talen's and Vistra's at Comanche Peak. Both were signed in 2025, and both only promise to explore uprates later. Talen's contract was itself a rewrite. Regulators at FERC had [turned down](https://world-nuclear-news.org/articles/regulator-rejects-amended-susquehanna-power-agreement) a plan to send more of its plant's power straight to the Amazon site. **The pattern did not start with the pledge. The pledge wrote it down:** signers promised to buy from "new or otherwise additive power plants" and to pay the full cost.

> **The addition test** — When a tech company signs with the owner of existing reactors, ask what the contract adds. A restart, an uprate or a licence renewal lets the buyer say it brought new power to the grid. Existing output can still be sold through a financial contract that leaves it on the grid. But the power with the buyer's name on it is the added power. The next contract of that kind goes to whoever still has additions to sell.

## Room to add is what is scarce now

A running reactor is scarce, but its power already serves someone. Moving that power to one buyer for 20 years takes it away from today's customers. The pledge says the buyer must not push the cost of replacing it onto households. A financial contract, like Google's 2,700 MW, avoids the problem by leaving the power on the grid. An uprate or a licence renewal creates power that would not exist without the contract. **So what matters for the next deal is a company's room to add megawatts, not how many it already runs.**

- **Uprates.** Most reactors can produce a little more with new turbines, pumps or fuel. Google's 890 MW is spread across 11 reactors, so a large fleet can offer an addition no single plant could.
- **Licence renewals.** A plant near the end of its licence can be sold as new life. Clinton and Calvert Cliffs were both sold that way. A company with older reactors has more of these to offer.
- **Restarts.** Crane and Duane Arnold were plants that had already closed. Very few closed plants can be restarted, so this is a one-off rather than a pipeline.
- **New reactors.** The purest addition, and the slowest. Oklo's Meta project is all new, with first power no earlier than 2030.

## Existing output still sells, and the addition has a bill

The strongest objection comes from Constellation itself. In Q2 2026 it [signed 920 MW](https://www.constellationenergy.com/news/2026/08/constellation-reports-second-quarter-2026-results.html) of 15–20 year contracts with what it called investment-grade customers. The [American Nuclear Society reports](https://www.ans.org/news/2026-08-13/article-8291/secondquarter-updates-from-constellation-new-ppas-crane-restart-and-more/) that about 890 MW of that is existing output. Only Walmart's 176 MW comes with an uprate. So existing nuclear power still finds buyers after the pledge. The argument here holds only in a narrower form. The Q2 buyers who took existing output alone were not named. And since 2025, no named tech giant has bought existing output without an addition in the same deal. If the Q2 buyers include a pledge signer, the rule is weaker than this note says.

The second objection is the size of Google's existing-output piece. At 2,700 MW, it is three times the new capacity. Making it a financial contract may just be good politics. If existing power only needs a small addition attached to sell, the easy reading is mostly right. Room to add would then matter only at the edges, and every reactor owner would benefit.

The third objection is the bill. Constellation will spend more than $4.3 billion on the Google uprates, and the Calvert Cliffs deal enables more than $3 billion more. Neither release discloses a price. A 20-year contract that pays back a large build looks more like a utility's regulated return than a windfall. If the returns on uprates are thin, the company with the most room to add also has the most money at risk. The early rallies on both deal days would then be cheering the wrong half of the contract.

The fourth objection is geography. Comanche Peak sold existing output to Amazon in Texas, which has its own grid outside PJM. The deal only included options on uprates. If the rule is mostly about PJM, Texas may keep selling existing output on its own. A week of contracts settles none of this. Each objection needs its own evidence: the Q2 buyers named, a price for the 2,700 MW, a disclosed return on uprate spending (perhaps at Constellation's November results), or a new contract in Texas.

## Who still has megawatts to add

Sort the five companies by their room to add and the order is clear. Constellation has the most reactors to uprate and licences to renew, and has just used both in back-to-back deals. Vistra has done it once, with Meta at three plants, and holds an option at Comanche Peak. NextEra is the middle case. It runs four nuclear sites with room of their own, but nuclear is a small part of a company built around a regulated Florida utility. Its one tech nuclear deal is a restart. Talen owns a large gas fleet but only one nuclear plant, and Amazon's contract already covers about 85% of its share. Oklo has only new reactors and no running plant to pair them with.

| Ticker | Name | Moat | Growth | Valuation | Composite | Note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **Large fleets with additions to sell** |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| [CEG](https://investmoat.com/stocks/ceg) | Constellation Energy Corp. | 80 | 80 | 82 | 84 | Uprates across 11 units for Google, a relicence and uprate for Amazon, six days apart |
| [VST](https://investmoat.com/stocks/vst) | Vistra Corp. | 72 | 77 | 81 | 79 | 433 MW of uprates bought by Meta; Comanche Peak uprate still an option |
| **Nuclear a minority of the company** |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| [NEE](https://investmoat.com/stocks/nee) | NextEra Energy, Inc. | 82 | 65 | 74 | 74 | Duane Arnold restart for Google; four operating nuclear sites inside a regulated-utility parent |
| **One nuclear station, mostly sold** |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| [TLN](https://investmoat.com/stocks/tln) | Talen Energy Corp. | 65 | 70 | 75 | 70 | Amazon contract covers about 85% of its Susquehanna share; uprates only explored |
| **New build only** |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| [OKLO](https://investmoat.com/stocks/oklo) | Oklo Inc. | 49 | 72 | 72 | 62 | All addition, no operating reactor; Meta prepays for a campus that starts in 2030 at the earliest |

_Valuation and composite above use each asset's static valuation score; the live site recomputes them against the current market price._

The framework's ratings measure how broad each contract book is, not room to add, but here the two agree. Constellation and Vistra are rated strong on transaction embedding, because their contracts span several tech buyers. Talen is held at intact: one buyer, one nuclear plant, and most of the ramp still ahead. NextEra is also strong, on contracts that are mostly renewables. Reading the gap between Constellation and Talen as a gap in room to add is this note's view, not the framework's.

| Ticker | Transaction Embedding | Regulatory Lock-In | Scale Economics | Talent Scarcity | Bundling |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **Large fleets with additions to sell** |  |  |  |  |  |
| [CEG](https://investmoat.com/stocks/ceg) | strong | intact | strong | strong | intact |
| [VST](https://investmoat.com/stocks/vst) | strong | intact | intact | strong | intact |
| **Nuclear a minority of the company** |  |  |  |  |  |
| [NEE](https://investmoat.com/stocks/nee) | strong | strong | strong | intact | weakened |
| **One nuclear station, mostly sold** |  |  |  |  |  |
| [TLN](https://investmoat.com/stocks/tln) | intact | intact | na | intact | intact |
| **New build only** |  |  |  |  |  |
| [OKLO](https://investmoat.com/stocks/oklo) | weakened | intact | weakened | intact | na |

## Price the next contract, not the last one

The [GE Vernova note](/research/ge-vernova-and-the-ai-electricity-basket) argued that having already sold the megawatt is what sets a power company apart. This note partly reverses that. A sold megawatt is a contract already won. It says little about whether the seller can win the next one. Talen's Amazon contract is signed and ramping up, and it is the very reason Talen has the least nuclear left to sell. Constellation's two deals say the opposite about Constellation, at the cost of a building bill whose return nobody has disclosed.

> **What would break this** — Before October 6, 2027, one of the seven original pledge signers is named as buyer in a US nuclear deal of 500 MW or more, where new capacity is under 10% of the total and no licence renewal is attached. Two softer warnings: Constellation's unnamed Q2 buyers turn out to include a signer, or uprate returns come in below Constellation's cost of capital.

When a buyer's promise changes what it can sign, the scarce thing moves. Here it moved from the reactor itself to the room left to add one more megawatt.

## Sources

1. [Google and Constellation Announce Landmark Agreement to Bring 890 MW of New Nuclear Capacity to PJM Grid as Part of Long-Term Power Deal](https://www.googlecloudpresscorner.com/2026-10-06-Google-and-Constellation-Announce-Landmark-Agreement-to-Bring-890-MW-of-New-Nuclear-Capacity-to-PJM-Grid-as-Part-of-Long-Term-Power-Deal) — Google Cloud / Constellation, October 6, 2026 (press-release)
2. [Constellation and Amazon Announce 20-Year Power Purchase Agreement at Calvert Cliffs](https://www.constellationenergy.com/news/2026/09/constellation-and-amazon-announce-20-year-power-purchase-agreement-at-calvert-cliffs.html) — Constellation Energy, September 30, 2026 (press-release)
3. [Constellation, Amazon agree nuclear-focused power purchase deal](https://world-nuclear-news.org/articles/constellation-amazon-agree-nuclear-focused-power-purchase-deal) — World Nuclear News, October 1, 2026 (third-party)
4. [Constellation to Launch Crane Clean Energy Center (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868275/000186827524000058/ceg-202409208kexh991.htm) — Constellation Energy via SEC EDGAR, September 20, 2024 (filing)
5. [Constellation, Meta Sign 20-Year Deal for Clean, Reliable Nuclear Energy in Illinois](https://www.constellationenergy.com/newsroom/2025/constellation-meta-sign-20-year-deal-for-clean-reliable-nuclear-energy-in-illinois.html) — Constellation Energy, June 3, 2025 (press-release)
6. [Talen Energy Expands Nuclear Energy Relationship with Amazon (Form 8-K exhibit)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1622536/000162828025030559/a20250611pressreleasebusin.htm) — Talen Energy via SEC EDGAR, June 11, 2025 (filing)
7. [Vistra Corp. Form 8-K: 20-year power purchase agreement at Comanche Peak](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000119312525221774/d43667d8k.htm) — Vistra Corp. via SEC EDGAR, September 29, 2025 (filing)
8. [Amazon and Meta agreements boost Vistra nuclear plants](https://wnn.world-nuclear.org/articles/ppas-support-extended-operations-at-vistra-plants) — World Nuclear News, February 27, 2026 (third-party)
9. [Vistra and Meta Announce Agreements to Support Nuclear Plants in PJM and Add New Nuclear Generation to the Grid](https://investor.vistracorp.com/2026-01-09-Vistra-and-Meta-Announce-Agreements-to-Support-Nuclear-Plants-in-PJM-and-Add-New-Nuclear-Generation-to-the-Grid) — Vistra Corp., January 9, 2026 (press-release)
10. [Meta announces 'landmark' agreements for new nuclear](https://wnn.world-nuclear.org/articles/meta-announces-landmark-agreements-for-new-nuclear) — World Nuclear News, January 9, 2026 (third-party)
11. [Google Has Deal with NextEra to Restart Duane Arnold Nuclear Plant](https://www.powermag.com/google-has-deal-with-nextera-to-restart-duane-arnold-nuclear-plant/) — POWER Magazine, October 27, 2025 (third-party)
12. [Ratepayer Protection Pledge](https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/03/ratepayer-protection-pledge/) — The White House, March 4, 2026 (regulator)
13. [White House Expands Data Center Ratepayer Pledge as Congress Moves to Codify Protections](https://www.powermag.com/white-house-expands-data-center-ratepayer-pledge-as-congress-moves-to-codify-protections/) — POWER Magazine, July 23, 2026 (third-party)
14. [Constellation Energy, Amazon Lock 20-Year Nuclear Power Purchase Agreement; Stock Soars](https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/10/62100792/constellation-energy-amazon-lock-20-year-nuclear-power-purchase-agreement-stock-soars) — Benzinga, October 1, 2026 (third-party)
15. [Constellation shares gain on 20-year nuclear power deal with Google](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/constellation-shares-gain-on-20year-nuclear-power-deal-with-google-4933938) — Investing.com, October 6, 2026 (third-party)

---

Scores are computed deterministically from each asset's data file: composite = Moat^0.40 × Growth^0.30 × Valuation^0.30, scaled to 0–100.

Full analyses for every name above: https://investmoat.com/stocks. Site index for agents: https://investmoat.com/llms.txt

InvestMoat is an open-source research and education framework. Nothing here is financial advice.