# American Tower Stock After the SpaceX Cell Site Report: Paying for a Lease Nobody Has Signed — InvestMoat Research

_American Tower is up about 13% since October 8 on two SpaceX headlines, the latest a report that SpaceX wants at least 80,000 US cell sites. Nothing is signed. The last company that tried to be the fourth US carrier signed a lease to 2036 and stopped paying once it sold its spectrum to AT&T and SpaceX._

_Published: October 23, 2026 · Last reviewed: October 23, 2026 · Canonical page: https://www.investmoat.com/research/american-tower-and-the-spacex-lease-nobody-has-signed_
_Tags: Hard Assets, Telecom, Catalyst_
_Covers: AMT, SPCX_

## Summary

Bloomberg reported on October 22, 2026 that SpaceX is in talks to lease at least 80,000 US cell sites for a fourth national wireless network, and American Tower opened the next day at $202 before closing up 4.1% at $188.97. With the October 9 rally on SpaceX's 800 MHz spectrum deal, the stock is up about 13% in two weeks on a tenant that has signed nothing. The precedent is DISH, which signed a tower agreement running into 2036, sold its spectrum to AT&T and SpaceX in 2025 and was in default by January 2026; in the first two quarters after that, American Tower's U.S. & Canada organic tenant billings growth was 0.6% and 0.7%. A tower's moat protects it from other towers, and I argue it does much less against a tenant whose network plan changes, so the rally is paying for a contract before anyone has seen its terms.

## What would prove this wrong

A signed lease or master lease agreement between SpaceX and American Tower, announced in an earnings release, a filing or on an earnings call before American Tower's Q2 2027 report in late July 2027, would show the rally priced a real lease, and I'd be wrong to treat it as a headline. A deal with Crown Castle alone doesn't count.

_Status as of October 23, 2026: **holding**._

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U.S. & Canada organic tenant billings growth, Q2 2026: 0.7% · DISH share of U.S. & Canada property revenue, 2025: ~4% · Sites SpaceX is reported to want: 80,000+ · AMT price: (live) · AMT composite: 68

After the close on October 22, Bloomberg [reported](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/spacex-talks-80-000-cell-222051612.html) that SpaceX is in talks to get access to at least 80,000 US cell sites, with Crown Castle named as one of the tower owners at the table, to build a fourth national wireless network. On October 23 American Tower opened at $202, up 11%, and closed at $188.97, up 4.1%. Crown Castle closed up 9%, AT&T and T-Mobile fell about 8%, and Verizon fell 1%.

It's the second SpaceX rally this month. On October 9 American Tower [closed up 9%](https://nasdaq.com/articles/why-american-tower-stock-jumped-86-today) after SpaceX agreed to buy Grain Management's 800 MHz spectrum for about $8 billion. From the October 8 close of $166.73, the stock is up about 13% in two weeks, and none of that is a signed lease. SBA Communications, which the report didn't name, is up about 9% over the same stretch, so a good part of the move is a trade in all tower stocks. Crown Castle's CEO said on its October 21 call only that "you can assume that we're talking to all parties."

## The last fourth carrier and its 2036 lease

American Tower has had a fourth national carrier as a tenant before. DISH signed a long-term agreement for its 5G build, running into 2036. In 2025 its parent EchoStar sold about $23 billion of spectrum to AT&T and about $17 billion to SpaceX, then [told American Tower](https://wirelessestimator.com/articles/2025/boost-turns-to-bust-american-tower-sues-to-stop-dish-ditching-tower-rent-towercos-could-lose-9-billion/) in September 2025 that the sales excused it from paying. American Tower's 2025 10-K says DISH was about 4% of U.S. & Canada property revenue and "as of January 2026 is in default." The CEO [put it](https://www.fierce-network.com/wireless/american-tower-flags-200m-annual-loss-tied-dish-default) at about $200 million a year through 2035, and as of the 10-K the lawsuit in Colorado was still pending.

**American Tower U.S. & Canada organic tenant billings growth, year over year, as reported each quarter. DISH was in default by January 2026, and the 2026 outlook was about 0.5% at the midpoint.**

| Period | U.S. & Canada organic tenant billings growth |
| --- | --- |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9% |
| Q4 2025 | 5.6% |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | 0.7% |

Q1 2026: DISH in default.

_Figures as of July 28, 2026 — American Tower Q2 2026 earnings release. Source: [American Tower Q3 2025 earnings release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350725000147/pressreleaseq32025.htm); [American Tower Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260224093650/en/American-Tower-Corporation-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Financial-Results); [American Tower Q1 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001053507/000105350726000094/pressreleaseq12026.htm); [American Tower Q2 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm)._

Growth went from 3.9% and 5.6% in the two quarters before DISH stopped paying to 0.6% and 0.7% in the two after. American Tower doesn't split out how much of that drop is DISH, but the timing is hard to miss. SpaceX bought part of the spectrum whose sale ended that lease.

**The two would-be fourth carriers as American Tower tenants.**

| Line | DISH | SpaceX |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Spectrum | Sold to AT&T and SpaceX in 2025 | Bought from EchoStar (agreed 2025) and Grain (agreed October 2026) |
| Agreement with American Tower | Signed, running into 2036 | None. Talks reported, nothing signed |
| Share of U.S. & Canada property revenue | ~4% in 2025 | None disclosed |
| Status | In default since January 2026, in litigation | Rooftop small cells in August, talks for macro sites in October |

_Figures as of October 23, 2026 — American Tower 2025 Form 10-K and the reports cited. Source: [American Tower 2025 Annual Report (Form 10-K)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm); [Boost turns to bust: American Tower sues to stop DISH ditching tower rent](https://wirelessestimator.com/articles/2025/boost-turns-to-bust-american-tower-sues-to-stop-dish-ditching-tower-rent-towercos-could-lose-9-billion/); [SpaceX wants to be a fourth major network, but it's building around towers, not on them](https://wirelessestimator.com/articles/2026/spacex-wants-to-be-a-fourth-major-network-but-its-building-around-towers-not-on-them/); [Why American Tower Stock Jumped 8.6% Today](https://nasdaq.com/articles/why-american-tower-stock-jumped-86-today); [SpaceX in talks over 80,000 cell sites to build new wireless network (Investing.com, citing Bloomberg)](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/spacex-talks-80-000-cell-222051612.html)._

The moat file on [AMT](/stocks/amt) is about site scarcity. Zoning and permitting make new towers slow to build, and moving a carrier's equipment is expensive. That protects American Tower against a rival tower going up down the road. It does much less when a tenant's business plan changes. DISH left because it sold the spectrum its network ran on, and the rent stopped with it.

## Rooftops in August, towers in October

In August, Gwynne Shotwell [described](https://wirelessestimator.com/articles/2026/spacex-wants-to-be-a-fourth-major-network-but-its-building-around-towers-not-on-them/) SpaceX's ground network as small radios next to Starlink dishes on host rooftops, "these little femtocells," built that way to avoid spending "10 or many billions of dollars" up front. That plan didn't need towers. The 800 MHz deal changed things, because low-band spectrum carries far and gets indoors, and it's normally run off macro towers. So the October report fits the spectrum SpaceX now holds. It's still only a report of talks, and two months ago the plan was rooftops.

## Why this time the tenant may stay

The bull case is that SpaceX is the opposite of DISH. DISH was a seller of spectrum looking for a way out of a network it couldn't fund. SpaceX is a buyer, with the EchoStar and Grain deals, and it has the cash flow from Starlink to pay rent. Bernstein's Laurent Yoon [said](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/crown-castle-soars-12-reported-143401919.html) committing to 80,000 macro sites "could be a point of no return." Once SpaceX has radios on that many towers, it's in the same position AT&T and Verizon are in, with equipment wired into a live network that's expensive to move, which is the switching cost American Tower's moat rests on.

There's also the arithmetic. With the 2026 guide around 0.5%, and AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon at 85% of U.S. & Canada property revenue in 2025, a new national tenant would matter. Wireless Estimator, using a consultant's estimate, put DISH's average rent at about $16,800 a site a year. American Tower is one of three big US tower owners, so say it got a fifth of 80,000 sites. At that rent that's about $270 million a year, more than DISH paid. And the market could be right to pay early. A signed lease is usually announced well before the revenue shows up, so waiting for the billings line means buying after the move.

I take that seriously, and if SpaceX signs with American Tower, I'm wrong about this rally. Whether that lease outlasts the next change in SpaceX's plans is a separate and longer question, and DISH shows it's a real one. There's also a second-order risk the rally ignores. If SpaceX wins subscribers from the big three, the tenants behind 85% of American Tower's U.S. & Canada property revenue have less reason to keep adding equipment.

## The October 27 call, then a name on a lease

American Tower reports Q3 on October 27, before the open. I'll look for three things: whether management confirms talks with SpaceX or stays where Crown Castle did, what U.S. & Canada organic billings growth does against the 0.7% in the chart, and any early read on 2027. Then the real test. If American Tower names SpaceX as a signed tenant before its Q2 2027 report, the rally paid for something real and I'm wrong. Until then the 13% is paying for a report of talks.

## Sources

1. [SpaceX in talks over 80,000 cell sites to build new wireless network (Investing.com, citing Bloomberg)](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/spacex-talks-80-000-cell-222051612.html) — Yahoo Finance, October 22, 2026 (third-party)
2. [American Tower Q3 2025 earnings release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350725000147/pressreleaseq32025.htm) — American Tower via SEC EDGAR, October 28, 2025 (filing)
3. [American Tower Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260224093650/en/American-Tower-Corporation-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Financial-Results) — American Tower via Business Wire, February 24, 2026 (press-release)
4. [American Tower Q1 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001053507/000105350726000094/pressreleaseq12026.htm) — American Tower via SEC EDGAR, April 28, 2026 (filing)
5. [American Tower Q2 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000131/pressreleaseq22026.htm) — American Tower via SEC EDGAR, July 28, 2026 (filing)
6. [American Tower 2025 Annual Report (Form 10-K)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1053507/000105350726000035/amt-20251231.htm) — American Tower via SEC EDGAR, February 24, 2026 (filing)
7. [Boost turns to bust: American Tower sues to stop DISH ditching tower rent](https://wirelessestimator.com/articles/2025/boost-turns-to-bust-american-tower-sues-to-stop-dish-ditching-tower-rent-towercos-could-lose-9-billion/) — Wireless Estimator, October 29, 2025 (third-party)
8. [SpaceX wants to be a fourth major network, but it's building around towers, not on them](https://wirelessestimator.com/articles/2026/spacex-wants-to-be-a-fourth-major-network-but-its-building-around-towers-not-on-them/) — Wireless Estimator, August 6, 2026 (third-party)
9. [Why American Tower Stock Jumped 8.6% Today](https://nasdaq.com/articles/why-american-tower-stock-jumped-86-today) — Nasdaq (The Motley Fool), October 9, 2026 (third-party)

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